We talk a lot about advanced metrics here at Mets360, to the point that Brian has even provided expert guidance on navigating data in Baseball Reference. At the same time, writers here at Mets360 have been posting ideas about to improve Cohen’s Mets for the upcoming year. Hot Stove indeed. We hear a lot about the fate of the young core of players, Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, Dominic Smith, JD Davis, and Jeff McNeil, all of whom are still under control. Trade chips? Starters? Bench depth? There are a lot of opinions.
I wanted to take a look at these players using each one’s batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and adjusted on-base plus slugging percentages (OPS+) as a means of assessing them beyond eyeball observations or just a singular metric, such as OPS or OPS+. I was drawn to this after listening to the “Shea Anything” podcast hosted by Doug Williams and Andy Martino (along with Keith Hernandez and Jerry Blevins). One recent episode explored the value of Dom Smith particularly on him being able to drop Texas League hits to raise his batting average or as an example about hitting prowess. I was quite taken aback when the discussion compared Smith to the prolific hitting of David Wright. Surely we could know what Smith’s hitting looks like beyond average or slugging, and the discussion seemed ripe for investigating OPS+ in light of BABIP.
First things first. Making a comparison with David Wright for any of the young core players is quite eye opening. Yes, there have been some strong seasons, but pulling out a DWright comp was something else. Without doubt, Wright was on a Hall of Fame arc until his spinal stenosis robbed him and Mets fans of this generation’s Tom Seaver. In 13 seasons, Wright posted an OPS+ > 110 twelve times and > 120 nine times. That level of consistency was remarkable. Along the way, Wright posted a career BABIP of .339, well above the general MLB average of .300. Only one season did Wright have about an MLB average BABIP. Making comparisons with him are fraught with trouble because he was a magnificent hitter. Surprisingly enough, the closest of the young core to this trend is Brandon Nimmo. While I think the defense leaves something to be desired, he is the remarkable hitter we see, with a persistently high OPS+ and BABIP. Even in 2019 when Nimmo had about a league average BABIP, he posted a 111 OPS+. Too bad he cannot stay on the field, averaging only 230 AB per season.
Moving on to the young core players gives us something to consider. Dom has had a couple string seasons with OPS+ and three seasons not so much. Digging into his BAPIB, it is clear that it entirely props up his OPS+. The only time Dom has a high OPS+ is when his BABIP is well over league average of .300, which is his career average. The correlation between these metrics is in lock step.
JD Davis is an interesting case. He has the best OPS in CitiField since its opening. Like with Dom, his BABIP and OPS+ are in lock step. By contrast with Dom, Davis’ average BABIP is a staggering .340, although that is strongly biased the unbelievable .426 from this past season but just 211 AB. While there is reason to doubt that all BABIPs > .300 land in the “lucky” category (for example, Wright was not lucky for 13 seasons), his maintenance of such a sporty BABIP seems a bit much to believe in. If he could really field 3B, the risk might be worth taking. McNeil is in about the same boat as Davis with close tracking of BABIP and OPS+. With a record of only four seasons, it is a bit hard to know where his BABIP will settle. What is clear however is that when his BABIP is low, there is little we can expect in terms of slugging.
The flip side of this Pete Alonso. With only a three seasons worth of data, the story is yet to be fully written. That said, Alonso has a consistently wicked OPS+ in all three seasons (147, 122, 134). What separates Alonso from his cohort of youngsters is this: he is carrying those numbers with an average BABIP of .272, well below the MLB average. Like the song says, his future is so bright he’s gotta wear shades. Even if he nudges up the BABIP to .285, still 15 points below league average, his slugging will be staggering. It is hard to envision a scenario where his BABIP falls much lower. It is time for Cohen to pull out the wallet and lock up Alonso as he will hold all the Mets power hitting records if he stays in Orange and Blue.
So my thought after limited exposure to analytics is that BABIP really measures how hard balls tend to be hit. A ball that it hit hard has a better chance of finding outfield grass than a ball weakly hit. If this is true, JDDavis, on average, hits the ball harder than Don Smith and this corresponds with what I see (with my eye) from their collective at bats.
Jeff McNeil suffered this season from far too many “off barrel” strikes of the baseball… too many five hoppers to first and second base, and too many lazy fly balls to medium range outfielders.
Alonso’s BABIP numbers do not quite make sense to me. He did, in fact, hit the ball hard on many of his outs: hard hit ground balls, one-hoppers to well-placed infielders, and line drives to the warning track. Hopefully, these hard luck outs will balance out in subsequent years and more of his lasers will find landing spots.
I’d like to hear how others feel about these intuitions of mine.
I think there is a bit of that, but we commonly see hard balls hit right at people as player positioning has gotten so precise. I dont think theres a necessary correlation between barrels (hard hit) and BABIP, although I may look into that. Perhaps someone else knows.
The main thing here is that the pairing of OPS+ and BABIP is a troubling thing in my opinion. For players that cannot keep their OPS+ up without seemingly unrealistic BABIP values does not bode well.
One thing for sure is that the number ABs or years played is small – but – there is enough time elapsed to separate Alonso from Smith. Alonso seems to be doing this for real.
Interesting piece Chris and good comment Wobbit.
Chris, last year I wanted Nimmo as the #3 hitter since I felt he was the best combo of all factors and getting on base for the cleanup and fifth hitter was a good thing. Does this give you reason to consider that? Too, as I keep seeing a commercial during the Series that shows McNeil telling Alonso to tell everyone that he beats him in HRs during BP and Alonso says, “yes you do”, might McNeil’s style of hitting – kind of like Ichiro – affect his slugging?
I dont have a problem batting Nimmo 2 or 3, except theres no one to really replace him leading off. nimmo struggles from one huge problem that is super hard to overcome: injury.
Can you bank on a guy would you cant bank on being on the field?
I was a Nimmo doubter from day 1, but in the box, he’s a real big leaguer.
McNeil is all over the map, which started as his strength and is now his glaring weakness. Three years ago McNeil took a short stroke to the ball and hit the barrel a lot and sprayed the ball around. Pitchers found it problematic because there was really no way to consistently get him out.
Then, near the end of 2019, he started going deep a little more and caught the fever. Instead of a number 2, he wanted to be number 3, and he changed his approach. Instead of hitting the ball where it was pitched he looked to pull more, without the true discipline of a power hitter, and without the raw power.
This year he was never the one thing. He was lost at the plate, and he let the pitcher dictate the terms of the at bats. They ate him up. Until he gets his head straight and figures out that he isn’t a power hitter, he’s a utility man with an inconsistent bat.
A good year for McNeil is .280 with a lot of doubles… maybe 10 HRs. I’m afraid he may never see enough at bats on a better Mets team to get there.
McNeil should focus on being a gap to gap, level swing, line drive hitting doubles hitter. Most ball bounce before the wall, and he can celebrate those that do clear.
He’d be a much better hitter. But theres no denying that he slugs only with what seems like an unsustainable BABIP.
So I wonder how hitting “into the shift” is impacting the team and their BABIP. Seems like they did it a lot this year. And I think, of course, that the more it is effective against them, the more it is used. Maybe Alonso was the only player who was hitting the ball hard enough where he was able to hit through the shifts which teams were deploying against him.
For those with a substription to The Athletic, Tim Britton explores this very topic only for Jeff McNeil in an article today.
Incredible article. Recommended to everyone who is a Mets fan.