With the World Series now over, it’s a good time to take stock of things, to see just how big the challenge is up ahead for the Mets this offseason. Right now, they don’t have either a general manager or a manager. We should feel pretty confident that before the 2022 season starts that both of those positions will be filled. Despite how things look now – this is the easy part.
What’s not so easy is to fill all of the roster holes. It’ll be easier than in years past, with ownership seemingly willing to spend a lot of money. But there’s not a pitcher who can be counted on the provide 150+ innings at a 3.75 or better ERA on the roster. The catchers can’t be counted on to hit. Second and third base are giant question marks, as are at least two outfield positions.
The thing to remember is that holes can be filled as quickly as they were created, even without spending a ton of money. This time last year we would have considered Jacob deGrom and Jeff McNeil fixtures and J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith potential answers, too. Now, Davis and deGrom are injury question marks, while McNeil and Smith are performance unknowns. It wouldn’t be a shock if anywhere from one to four of those players bounced back to 2019-20 levels.
Let’s look at this on a position-by-position basis:
Catcher – The Mets are stuck here with the long-term contract with James McCann and one of their top prospects being a catcher. Do you want to spend to upgrade from Tomas Nido? That’s certainly a valid thought – to try to create a situation like the White Sox had in 2020 with two catchers who were both good. But with all of the moves the Mets have to make – do you want to add another to the pile? This seems like a case where you can wait until the trade deadline and move then if need be.
First Base – One of the few positions on the team where things are set. Do you want to engage Pete Alonso on a long-term deal? That seems to be the biggest question here. Again, seems to be more pressing issues to confront first, unless Alonso’s camp comes in with a proposal.
Second Base – Ideally, McNeil stops hitting weak ground balls into the shift and returns to being the player he’s been previously. But do you want to hope for the best here? Javier Baez was terrific once the Mets acquired him at the trade deadline. With money not being an obstacle, there’s a case to be made to spend here and give the club two big bats at the middle infield positions.
Third Base – Davis got off to a great start last year before injuries hit. And he’s hit fairly well during his Mets tenure, enough to consider him a starter if it wasn’t for his defensive issues. And the two big defensive systems are split on their views of Davis. DRS had him at a (-7) in 382.2 innings at the hot corner last year. But UZR had him at (-0.3) in 2021. If UZR is right, then Davis is certainly playable at third base from a defensive point of view. If DRS is right, well, he’ll have to hit a ton to make the tradeoff worthwhile.
Shortstop – After the first two months of the year, Lindor hit just like he had previously. We can debate if that’s worth $341 million but just from a position/production viewpoint, it’s good for the Mets.
Outfield – If he’s healthy, Brandon Nimmo is an impact player. Unfortunately, that’s turning into a big if, as he’s missed considerable time in two of the past three seasons. And he’s the most settled player in the outfield. Davis, McNeil and Smith are all possibilities here. But it’s hard to imagine the Mets won’t spend big here on at least one player.
Starters – Right now, the rotation is a disaster. It’s an absolute must to sign one big free agent and you can make the case for one or two more, too. deGrom couldn’t stay healthy. Carlos Carrasco was so awful it’s not outrageous to think his career is over. Taijuan Walker was terrible in the second half. Tylor Megill did a nice job when pressed into service but no one should want him to be one of the team’s top five starters. That last sentiment holds for David Peterson, too.
Relievers – Edwin Diaz is solid, if not the elite guy we hoped for, as closer. Both Seth Lugo and Trevor May were fine, if not the shutdown eighth-inning reliever you’d like to have. Miguel Castro is a good sixth-inning man. You could make a case for signing two relievers here. An eighth inning guy and a lefty. Or maybe Aaron Loup could fill both of those roles and you only need to re-sign him.
Multiple holes with multiple potential answers is not the worst position to be in for a 77-win club. Especially with an owner willing to spend money. There are many reasonable paths for this offseason to go, as long as signing one big SP is part of the plan
C = leave alone
1B = leave alone (Dom for bench)
2B = Baez or Simien (McNeil for bench)
SS = leave alone (McNeil for bench)
3B = re-sign Villar (JD Davis bench/platoon the hot hand)
OF = wow, dare say we need at least 2 every day legit players – Ive come around to Nimmo as a legit MLB talent. I dont like his defnese, but its ok to keep him out there. But you cant have the general of the OF getting <400 AB. Thats not enough to call him an every day guy. Hes only had more than 100 games in a season once.
The Mets need 2 OF
Starting P = heeeeelllllllppppp
relief P = without major SP help, it doesnt matter
bench = pretty solid
This is a 77 win team that needs a shake up. And, their offense stunk.
That said, I’d aim to first retain/resign their top free agent pitchers – Stroman, Syndergaard, and Loup. On top of that, I’d also add a high quality arm to the pen…someone that can assume closer duties should Diaz revert back to 2019 form. This is the area that they have minimal if any internal solutions for. I like the depth added by having Megill and Peterson refine their craft in Syracuse.
The “shake-up” can occur positionally. I’d like to see a combination of improvement and creativity, all while maintaining some pathways for at least Vientos and/or Baty in 2022. Perhaps a free agent or two, a trade, something unexpected…
What about a veteran presence like Andrew McCutchen? Not as one of the three starters but a solid fourth outfielder.
C McCann, Nido and wait for Alvarez.
1B Alonso, Smith, JDD, Escobar
2B Semien, Storey
SS Lindor
3B Escobar, Storey
LF Nimmo
CF Marte, Canha
RF Castellano, Pham
DH: JDD, Alonso,
SP: Rodon: better, younger, cheaper than Stroman, and LH… duh!
I believe you are selling Taijuan Walker short, Brian. Yes, he ht a wall. Understandable. But for a long stretch he was lights out. No reason to think he won’t stay there longer next year.
Castro can still get better. Lugo should. Please don’t resign Hand or Familia… trade Trevor May if someone wants him… with Cano!
Brian, I appreciate you keeping with facts instead of just emotional throwing out the baby with the bath water and signing free agents galore. By using Davis at 3B, it keeps the door open for Vientos and Baty. If Conforto comes back, then just find a left fielder. If he doesn’t, use Smith in LF and find a right fielder. That keeps the door open for Lee.
My wonder after the news on the Lindor/McNeil issue, can we trust McNeil to position himself correctly at 2B? If no, signing Baez is a need. If yes, now we have a decision to make because Mauricio is coming on strong and looking better all the time. Keeping McNeil at 2B makes it easier to incorporate Mauricio because McNeil has flexibility and Baez doesn’t.
Gus,
Exactly my preference as well. Not all of these kids will work out, but some will, and they need a chance to do it…that can be done on a team with top notch pitching and a core to carry the heavy lifting offensively…it shouldn’t take $350 million positionally to do so.
TJ, I’m completely with you that there is more need for pitching than position players. However, that seems to be the case throughout baseball. I looked at the starting out hers available for 2023 free agency after this year and the only guy worth mentioning is Jose Berrios. That makes it even more urgent to resign your two free agents right now.
Also, these kids may need some time to find themselves. Balancing youth and experience is very tricky.
It would be nice to replace Nido but there are more pressing needs. They shouldn’t extend Alsonso. RF is a pressing need. If Conforto declines the apparent QO then pivot to Bryant and forget about Baez. Baez is very good and maybe if they don’t sign Bryant he could be a fallback option but they shouldn’t over pay him in money and years. Lindor’s contract is very debatable in years and money. JD would be a risk defensively but 3B is one of the positions that is covered in the minors. LF and 4th outfielder has to be addressed with some veterans. They need a #2 SP primarily, and probably a #3 but they might load up the bullpen instead of the #3 with 8 quality reliever pitchers. What they shouldn’t do is to sign FA that is encumbered with a draft choice and not exceed a $250M payroll because it effects their draft position.
For the sake of the payroll we need to maintain flexibility at third as eventually one of Mauricio/Baty/Vientos will be a cost controlled option. This means we fill it internally (Davis, McNeil), with a verstile player who can shift elesewhere (Bryant, Villar, Escobar) or a veteran with a year remaining (Donaldson). Someone on here suggested trading for Matt Chapman. Good player but is it really wise to clog up the position where we have 3 prospects? For similar reasons, I’d leave catcher alone.
Bryant! Agree on McCann/Nido.
If this guy isn’t a Met next April, then they are the Coupons all over again. Here is your new right fielder. He’s 27, five tools, and the best player in Japan for the last three years.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/carp-post-outfielder-seiya-suzuki-free-agent-mlb-npb.html
Sold. Grab him up!
Interesting Gus. All it takes is money to sign him which is the Mets strong suit.