With the decision not to sign Kumar Rocker – Sandy Alderson? Steve Cohen? Zack Scott? – following the 2021 Draft, the Mets will receive a compensation pick in the 2022 Draft, one that is one spot lower than the Mets took Kumar originally. So, the Mets hold the 11th and 14th picks in the next draft. However, if a player received a Qualifying Offer and signs with another club, the team that signs him has to surrender their second pick. This is normally a hindrance when the draft pick is in the 40s or 50s, like it is for most clubs. It’s another matter entirely when it’s number 14 overall like it is for the Mets now.
Most analysts consider the Mets’ top tier minor league talent to be very good. The problem is that there’s almost no depth behind the top guys. This is what happens when you sell out for two or three guys in the draft consistently and fill in with cheap seniors the rest of the way. And when you consistently trade guys that you didn’t draft, like both Brodie Van Wagenen and last year’s Mets both did more than once, it further thins the system.
But here’s the thing – depth is overrated. In a perfect world, you have both stars and depth. But if you had to pick one, you’d pick stars every single time. In a way, depth is very much like winning at the minor league level. Ideally, your guys win as they advance up the ladder. But if you win because your roster is stocked with non-prospects who are too old for the level – so what?
Let’s look at the 2018 Binghamton squad. That year, Binghamton finished 64-76, which is not good. But that team had the following guys: Pete Alonso, Justin Dunn, Andres Gimenez and Jeff McNeil on the roster. That’s two future All Stars and two guys who were used in trades to acquire All Stars. If you live outside of the greater Binghamton area and you’re disappointed that the team finished 12 games under .500, well, you’re missing the point.
If there’s an offer out there for your Double-A team to have four guys like that every year but to finish below .500 each time out, please sign me and the Mets up for that tradeoff.
It’s pretty easy to acquire depth and considerably harder to acquire stars at the major league level. Here’s a partial list of backups and depth guys the Mets acquired before the start of the 2021 season: Brandon Drury, Tommy Hunter, Jose Peraza, Kevin Pillar, Jonathan Villar, and Jordan Yamamoto. And here’s a partial list of depth guys they acquired once the season was already underway: Travis Blankenhorn, Rich Hill, Billy McKinney, Chance Sisco, Mason Williams and Trevor Williams.
Some will argue that the main goal behind having depth in minor league prospects is that it will allow you to trade guys for MLB help. This is certainly a point with some merit. But keep in mind what this really means. Either you have so many good players in your system that it doesn’t hurt to trade a Pete Crow-Armstrong or that you believe that teams are going to somehow overvalue your depth guys and that they’ll trade you MLB players for them.
If it’s the former – congratulations! Your farm system is packed with stars, which is the goal. If it’s the latter, aren’t you banking on other teams being, well, stupid? That doesn’t seem to be a good business model for an MLB club.
Perhaps you’re thinking that if the Mets had that strong minor league depth, then they wouldn’t need to get the Drurys or McKinneys of the world. But given how easy it is to get those guys in the first place, isn’t that making a mountain out of a molehill? Again, ideally, you’d have guys to promote from your farm system. No one is arguing that. But on a list of problems for an MLB team, not having great minor league depth is like having a mosquito buzz in your ear. No one would choose to have it be that way but it’s not really a big setback in the overall scheme of things.
And here’s one final thought. Even if you have the best farm system in the game, one filled with both stars and depth, it doesn’t mean that you’re going to be able to internally fill every hole that happens at the MLB level. The example I like to use is from a couple of years ago, 2017, when the Braves had the consensus top farm system in the game. Freddie Freeman got hurt and they didn’t have anyone to promote to play first base. They picked up James Loney and sent him to the minors in preparation for the MLB gig. When it was clear that Loney was toast, the Braves traded to get Matt Adams.
Who did they trade to get Adams? An international signing of some note – Juan Yepez, who prior to last season was ranked by MLB.com as the Cardinals’ 26th-best prospect, three-plus years after the trade. It would be like the Mets trading Freddy Valdez. Or when the Mets got Wuilmer Becerra from the Blue Jays. The Braves didn’t use some established minor league player to get the 1B fill-in that they needed. They traded what was essentially a lottery ticket – something every team has in their system.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at minor league depth and the 14th-overall pick in the 2022 Draft.
I can’t believe the number of experts who are advocating for (or predicting) the Mets to sign Castellanos, Ray and Verlander. All of these guys received qualifying offers and the Mets would lose the #14 pick in the draft. There are a lot of other guys out there without a QO.
Agreed – start by signing Loup.
Interesting piece.
After thinking a little bit about it, the best word I can use to describe your system of prospects is “balance”. Optimally, you’d like to see your top 12 prospects all be legitimate player on the ladder to the majors. Of those twelve, they should be evenly spread through the system, two or three at every level, and all positions covered with positions being Pitcher, Catcher, Infield and Outfield.
I think the Mets are closer now to that balance overall balance than they have been in a while, although there is no pitching anywhere close to MLB ready. I’d like to see Ginn most of the year in Binghamton and Allan here by the end of 2022.
It seems that the stronger your MLB team is, the more success your minor league teams have. Perhaps it is because you don’t need to reach into your minor leagues every other week to fill a hole. So those players play together more as a cohesive unit and are more successful. I agree that some of the players the Mets acquired throughout the year were easily available and essentially minor-league players who had no business being in the MLB. I’d like to keep our draft picks unless the value of the player we got was a game changer. Short of that, please don’t get us the tired, over the hill, had a great year last year far exceeding his career average year and of course he will do it again, or a faint attempt to catch lightning in a bottle. Bring us game changers.
Brian,
Nice piece with some excellent points. I fully agree that give me the MLB contributors and stars over the higher ranked system. Some of the “depth” is real and some of it is illusion…guys like deGrom and McNeil, even a Guillorme
But, while the “depth” is overrated, it is not completely overrated. A recent example would be from this past season. The Mets, and others, were hot for Berrios from the Twins…because he is good and because he was more than a rental…controllable for 2022, a likely a QO guy that would return a pick if he left (under the current rules). The Jays got him and Mets passed due to the “price”, but if their top 10 was real strong the would likely have been more willing to outbid Toronto.
Lastly, those two #1 picks are very important and so long as the Mets don’t don’t do anything dumb this winter, should leave them with a very strong top 10. Especially true if they add pitching that bumps Megill and Peterson to AAA…still “prospects”. With Alderson saying they have “lots” of money to spend, I think they can aim at the non-QO FAs and perhaps a deal or two from the MLB roster and wind up both with a playoff caliber roster and an excellent top 10 system post draft.