Yesterday, we looked at the issue of minor league depth and its importance to the major league club. It’s relevant this year because the Mets feel that they need to improve their minor league depth and the feeling is that they shouldn’t sign a free agent with the Qualifying Offer because they can’t afford to part with their second pick. And it’s especially difficult this year because the Mets’ second pick in the 2022 Draft checks in at 14 overall. It’s a very high penalty.
Your hope is that with the 14th pick that you’ll get an MLB starter. It’s not unreasonable to think you can get an All-Star, perhaps a Michael Conforto type. It’s also a potential outcome to get a bust, a guy who either never makes it to the majors or has a minimal impact. It’s definitely a valuable commodity to have, one you wouldn’t toss away lightly.
Yet at the same time, guys who receive the QO are ones who’ve established themselves in the majors to a large degree. You know, the type of guy you hope you can get with the 14th pick. So, the idea should be not to avoid signing a free agent with a QO completely but rather to determine who are the players with draft pick compensation attached to them whose value exceeds that of the draft pick you would forfeit to sign them.
Obviously, the 14th pick has value. But how do you calculate that value, especially with the unknown of what you’ll eventually get? In 2020, the Giants had the 14th pick and MLB assigned that a slot bonus of $4,036,800. The Giants signed Will Bednar to an underslot deal with that pick. In a way the question is: Would the Giants trade Bednar for one of the free agents who got the QO? Not every player who gets the QO is created equally. It stands to reason that the answer should be yes for at least one or two of them. But which ones?
There were 14 players who received the QO. Let’s ignore the two Mets and look at the other 12:
Brandon Belt – This one’s a pretty easy decision. Belt was very good last year when healthy but he’s a first baseman and the last thing the Mets need to do is to forfeit a high pick to sign an injury-prone 1B. Pass.
Nick Castellanos – The Mets need outfielders and Castellanos is coming off a 136 OPS+ season. But that’s easily a career-high mark for him and lifetime he has a 118 OPS+. He’d be interesting without the QO but not worth the gamble. Pass.
Carlos Correa – One of the impressive shortstops available this year in free agency, the Mets would need Correa to play third base. Much like with Javier Baez, there’s reason to believe that Correa would switch positions. That is if the Mets gave him the highest offer. He’ll be 27 next season and with multiple 5.0 or better fWAR seasons under his belt already, this is someone the Mets should be in on, even with the QO. Rumor has it that Correa will want to top the salary the Mets gave Francisco Lindor. Is Steve Cohen willing to dig that deep? Engage
Freddie Freeman – It would be fun to steal him from the Braves. But it’s impossible to imagine him playing for any other team. And the whole 1B bit, too. Pass.
Raisel Iglesias – Hopefully the Mets learned their lesson about overpaying in non-money assets for closers. Pass.
Robbie Ray – The Mets need starters and Ray is one of the top guys available. But he doesn’t have the greatest track record around, last year’s outstanding season aside. If somehow his market doesn’t develop, there’s a point where it would make sense to go after Ray. But that seems like a distant longshot. Monitor.
Eduardo Rodriguez – After leading the league in walks in 2019, Rodriguez cut his BB/9 to 2.7 last year. Sometimes it takes lefties a little longer to figure things out. He’ll be 29 next year. It’s awfully tempting to go after Rodriguez but it’s just too much of a gamble for me. Pass.
Corey Seager – He didn’t have as strong of a 2021 as Correa – and there are some injury concerns here, too – but he also has two 6.0+ fWAR seasons under his belt. And he’ll be 28 next year. It’s unknown if he’d be willing to move to 3B but the Mets should definitely find out. Engage.
Marcus Semien – The poster boy for ignoring what happened in 2020, Semien had a 7.6 fWAR in 2019 and a 6.6 mark in 2021. He’s older than both Correa and Seager, as he’ll be 31 next season. But that should mean a more realistic, if still very expensive, contract. Engage.
Trevor Story – Yet another SS that the Mets would have to convince to play 3B, Story had a good but not great season in 2021. Of course, that could have been impacted by the Rockies throwing in the towel. With the other options available, it’s difficult to put him in the top tier. Monitor.
Chris Taylor – His ability to play multiple positions is very attractive. But he has little chance to be a 5.0 fWAR player going forward. Plus, he’s going to be 31 next year. Pass.
Justin Verlander – One of the top pitchers of his generation, Verlander has just 6 IP over the past two seasons due to TJ surgery. Also, he’ll be 39 next year. While we’ll always wish he made it to the third pick in 2004 – he went second, forcing the Mets to grab Philip Humber – it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever wear a Mets’ uniform. Pass.
*****
There are plenty of options available to the Mets in free agency that don’t have a QO attached to them and who might be more-likely targets for the club. And that’s fine. But the idea that they simply cannot sign anyone with draft pick compensation attached is not anything that makes sense to me. If you could trade draft picks and had the opportunity to acquire one of the elite SS in this free agent class to play 3B – you should be interested. The 14th pick has a high value. But it’s nowhere near the value of a 27-year-old Correa.
Good points on the shortstops who could move to 3B, Bryan. And you’re not dismissing going after a FA without a QO. My first choice is break the bank and do everything to sign Bryant, who is also so versatile.
I am one of the ones on the ‘do not sign anyone with a QO and lose the 14 pick” train this year, although Brian does have a very valid point about the value of the pick vs. the player.
My reasoning for not even engaging:
Belt, Freeman, Verlander: Brian covered these well. Not even a thought here.
Correa, Story, Seager: The cream of the crop this year. The Mets do not need to pay north of $200M to find out if a guy can even play third base or will be happy there long term once the shine of the new contract has worn off. As Steve says, Bryant is available for less money without the Q.O. attached. Also, three of the Mets top four prospects are left side infielders. no need to spend big bucks there.
Ray and Rodriguez: The Mets need starting pitching, but neither of these guys has a record of being worth this money, let alone this money + losing the draft pick. There are a bunch of other second tier pitchers out there that are better bets and cheaper.
Iglesias: A guy I was hoping would not get the Q.O. as I thought he might be a good fit in the bullpen, but it seems like the Angels think he is worth it. They don’t have Diaz in their pen so their need is greater for a $20M guy. I agree, pass on him for that cost.
Taylor: To me he is a Marwin Gonzalez or Kiki Hernandez type, maybe a bit better, but paying that kind of money for a career year in his walk year seems crazy.
Semien: As a second baseman, there could be a little merit if his 2021 year is believed to be repeatable (or anything near it). He is a good player, but hitting in Citi is not like hitting in Toronto (or wherever else they call home). But if you are going to spend that kind of coin on second base, Baez already proved he can play in New York. Just sign him to play next to his buddy for the next five years.
Finally Castellanos: Just No. If they need a right fielder, sign Conforto. While Conforto had a down year and Castellanos had a good one, Castellanos’s came in the Cincinnati bandbox and he is a terrible fielder. Conforto is a better overall player for the money in my opinion. It will be interesting to see how those two do in the end.
The Mets shouldn’t engage the players you identified just yet. They should prioritize free agents are not encumbered by a draft pick. If they strike out with Bryant or maybe Baez and Marte together, then they can circle back to the other encumbered shortstop/3B. The reason to hesitate is because of the potential of Batty, Vientos or Mauricio at 3B.
I think there are more alternatives available in Ray case and they should shy away from him.
I like the idea of Bryant and Marte without the QO. I like Bryant’s versatility and I like Marte’s 47 stolen bases. The big question is pitching. Who will we get to add to the rotation. Maybe we can pick up a good starter in a trade.
I am tired of the roster on this team. I just would like to see it get shaken up in a good way and give us some excitement for next year.
Well done with some excellent comments too. Not much to add, but I agree to start with players not saddled with the QO, but circle back should opportunities or the marketplace dictate. My preference still remains to avoid stockpiling thirty-somethings longer commitments, but be will to overpay on shorter deals. Marte likely fits that profile.
I’m torn on Marte. First, he’s injury prone and already 33. As for the stolen bases, didn’t Alderson pass on a 28 year old Jose Reyes because speed is the tool that leaves first, especially going into your 30’s?
I like Bryant’s versatility and that he plays third base, but Baez is a better player and younger. I also would like to have a plan on how the prospects can get a chance to play regularly once they are MLB ready.
I would pass on the QO players simply because they aren’t so much better than what is available and I would lose a possible good player for the future. Both Baez and Bryant have good histories, and while some of these guys have previous high bWAR’s, I would be wary of the player that is reserved and quiet. That player may not like New York’s pressures. I would suspect Bryant’s comments about not liking New York a couple of years ago when he was on the block to be a red flag, even if he is convinced to sign.
I don’t have an opinion as to whether or not the Mets should try to sign Correa, but if they did, then it stands to reason that they would be in a position to trade one or two of their top prospects for pitching.
I think the key was when you essentially said would you trade that #14 for a player who could jump in now and be the kind of player that the draft pick might be in the future. What we don’t need is a player who had a career year last year that far exceeded their average season, unless they have been building toward that and finally blossomed. Can’t have another Jed Lowrie. Throw dollars at Bryant. Throw dollars at Marte. Look at the teams who were in trouble last year and make trades, using some of our minor leaguers who are blocked at the MLB level. You simply don’t get an all star at every position because the payroll dollars are off the chart. How long before we expect Vientos to be able to play 3B and can Mauricio move to another spot besides SS. Teams rely less on player development and more on winning a title. For all the years the Marlins have had bad teams, they have as many titles as we do. The fans hated it, but they won, and then tore down and sold off their players. As elusive as a championship is, I’d rather concentrate on the MLB team and ensure that there are ample replacements at the lower levels who can step in for defined periods of time to fill in, versus trying to have the cream of the crop minor leagues. Home grown products take too long to develop especially when you go the cheap route and pluck high school players who need 4 years just to get to the big club. Prefer college players who are much closer to contribute from a skills and maturity level. It is also important to be better equipped to select from the draft so we don’t repeat last years fiasco and draft a pitcher with arm issues. Lots to consider. If we really have Cohen money to spend then it will be an interesting off-season.
I personally don’t look at any individual with a QO. This team is far enough away from anything, totally lifeless in the FO, and betting completely on Stearns to run the team after is Milwaukee contract expires. Forfeiting depth and the future for a mindless and hopeless run at fairy tale season is plain dumb. I think the only FAs you get are ones that are slam dunks that *any* FO would want, and fill the gaps with short-term FAs, and minor trades (to me Smith, Davis, McNeil, Guillorme, etc are all minor trades).
This team is a country mile from being a serious WC contender let alone a serious contender.