"We want to be competitive. We want to win our division and be in the playoffs and get deep into the playoffs. I've let Billy and Sandy know, it's whatever they need."
– Steve Cohen on the offseason pic.twitter.com/H1CDo2zSPn
— SNY (@SNYtv) November 19, 2021
This should be a welcome tune to not only the ears of Mets fans, but potential free agents as well. Which leads back to nothing is guaranteed. No matter how much you pay a player, sometimes the player does not live up to their potential end of the bargain. Case in point, the not-so ideal Mets debut season of Francisco Lindor, or the really unideal debut season of James McCann. For some players, it takes an adjustment period to play in New York, and the Mets are hoping that Lindor is able to return to complete form next season. But what if, with so many great free agents in this class, the Mets could get a player with a track record of success in New York, and feel confident in handing him a big contract to stick around for a while? And what if one of his best friends was already on the team? I’m sure you know where I’m going with this.
Javier Baez started his Mets tenure off on a rocky note. Brought in to help fix a team that was on a downward spiral and was suffering from not only a lack of offensive firepower but a depleted pitching staff, Baez struck a bad chord with fans when he gave them a thumbs down for booing fans. After he apologized, and led the team to an energizing victory, Baez then instantly became an integral member of the team. In 47 games with the Mets, Baez clubbed 9 home runs and batted .299, in addition to providing stellar defense and baseball instincts.
Yes, the Mets should absolutely sign Baez because he is supremely talented at the game of baseball and he plays the game in an infatuating style. It would be special to see him and Lindor up the middle for the next four or five years. But the Mets should be willing to pay Baez not only because of those talents, but also because he did it while on the Mets. How often have the Mets signed a player to a large contract, just for them to flat out not be able to produce? Whether it be the pressure from the media, the fans, or the pressure of a large contract, some players just are not able to fulfill their end. Baez is worth paying above the asking price, simply because he has performed well in a Mets uniform. It is worth the extra money to have the piece of mind to know that the player receiving the big contract is capable of performing on the New York stage. While its not guaranteed, it also isn’t a long shot to believe it will happen.
The same logic applies to the opposite end of the spectrum as well. There have been rumors that the Mets could be interested in bringing back Steven Matz for a potential reunion next season. Sure, Matz had the best season of his career last year with 14 wins, a 3.82 ERA, and a respectable 144 strikeouts. That also could be due in part to Matz not being back in front of the New York crowd, pitching for the team he grew up rooting for. It was a great story to see him flourish in Toronto, one that most Mets fans were happy about. Matz returning to the team would place so much pressure on him to bring his Toronto stats to New York that there’s no way he’d be comfortable on the mound. Remember his last season with the team? An 0-5 2020 with a 9.68 ERA. While it’s not guaranteed that Matz would struggle upon returning to the Mets, there’s a good chance it would happen based off of the pressure that would be put on him.
Billy Eppler has the opportunity to do some great things with the Mets, and it should be an exciting flurry of free agent moves before the impending lockout on December 1. Eppler, who from his Angels days knows that contracts like Anthony Rendon’s are never guaranteed to work out, should work hard to retain a proven talent in New York like Baez, even if it was in a small sample size.
Baez batted .299 with the Mets last season
Matz pitched to a 3.82 ERA with the Blue Jays last season
Compare that to his 2020 Mets season, where he pitched to a 9.68 ERA.
The Yankees just cut left-fielder Clint Frazier. I know he’s had injury issues, but his salary is only 2.4 million/year. I wonder if y’all think it would be worth claiming him, if they can?
Depends on how many roster spots are available to grab him at that deal and your ability to carry him to see if he can rebound. Not a slam dunk, but in the right situation he will get another chance. Too, he is more comfortable in CF than the corners, where the Yanks always stuck him. Certainly a phone call to see how the concussions that sidelined him last year are progressing… but don’t forget Jason Bay.
Agree on both Baez and Matz.
And Steve Cohen broke bread with the former player. That’s a good sign for him staying, provided the $$ is there!
There are way better starting pitchers out there to sign.
All it takes is money. And we finally have that in NY!
Wait a minute Dalton: you’re telling us that two months of Baez’ sample is equal to the previous two full baseball seasons of Matz’ sample at a 4.09 ERA? And if you think Matz’ 2020 was pathetic, did you notice Baez’s? A .203 average leading to a .599 OPS doesn’t scream confidence nor his lifetime OPS+ of just 104. While Matz’ career ERA+ of 96 isn’t flattering either, he isn’t getting superstar money, more #4 money at about $10MM per year while Baez’ banking $25-27+MM per year and not lighting the world on fire either. While he is clearly a better player than Cano, McNeil is much closer at 10% of the cost.
With Baez’ money alone, you can sign two from Matz, Gausman, Gray, Wood, or DiSclafani. You sign Baez, and you lose those 300+ innings unless you dig deeper into your bank account. Too, the Mets have other holes and won’t be spending like drunken sailors, LOL.
Baez is a good player, but Matz’ value shouldn’t be tied to Baez’.
No to Matz who probably would cost $15 million off his one good season inToronto. No reason for him to magically continue his success in NY when he had years to do it and really could not.
Yes to Baez because he showed that he is an impact player and he did it here.
We need impact players who can both hit and field – what a novel concept. Tired of players playing out of position and struggling with IFs playing the OF, although Dom Smith was greatly improved in LF, arguably the easiest position on the field to play. Let’s open those purse strings and also make trades with some MLB players and prospects that are blocked.
Eppler said he wants 2-3 starting pitchers and he prefer hitters that recognize the strike zone and attack pitches in the white. It sounds like he would sign Matz, maybe, and pass up on Baez.
Your point about performing in New York has crossed my mind too and I think it is valid. Baez would a good signing but Bryant should be the primary target for RF. Baez would be a secondary option.
As for Matz ; Wood, DeSclafani and Gray would be in front of Matz for a back end starter.
The Mets still would need a #2 starter and they should sign Hill as a swing man and depth.
I have a couple of issues with Baez. While it’s easy to look at his stats and say he played great when he came to the Mets you need to look a little deeper. When he came to NY the Mets had a 5 game lead in the division and according to Fangraphs had a 71.6% chance of making the playoffs. From that point until September 4th Baez had a line of 215/262/468 with 28 Ks and 3 BBs in 84 plate appearances. At that point the Mets had dropped to 3 games out and Fangraphs playoffs odds had dropped to 10.2%. It wasn’t until that point, when the season was all but over, that Baez kicked it in. From that point forward he slashed 368/450/552 with 25 Ks and 10 BBs, which are phenomenal numbers. However, he did that when the pressure of the pennant race was pretty much gone and he was making a contract push. His newfound plate discipline that some people point to occurred over those final 100 plate appearances. Do we really think that those 100 plate appearances of a contract push are going to be sustained rather than years of history? That seems like a stretch to me.
Getting to see Baez play every day was fun and he did a lot of things that I didn’t appreciate before I got to watch him every day, but I think we will regret a long term contract for him. I expect that the high strikeout, low OBP player that he’s been most if his career is what we will see.
Outstanding comment and research Bob.
Thanks Gus!
Bob,
Spot on. Now, the Mets also faced high quality competition right after Baez first got here, so that was part of the equation as well, but those numbers are stark and September garbage time stats in a contract push need to be discounted. Furthermore, I recall seeing an article on MLB.com or somewhere that dug into contact rates and Baez had some of the weakest numbers against high velocity out of the group of free agent SS included. His swing and miss and OPS vs. 95+ was very poor. This is very concerning as it’s not just his strike zone recognition that is iffy. I still think he can add value but not at elite dollars, maybe a 4/$90 or thereabouts.
Thanks TJ. I could live with Baez on a reasonable contract and the 4/$90 that you mentioned is probably about as far as I’d want to go. I think that he’s going to get a lot more than that though from someone. I just hope it’s not the Mets.
Bob gives some first-rate thinking here. Like TC said, that only numbers less meaningful that March are September – and doubly true if the pressure is off.
The words coming from Cohen are certainly interesting. It tells me that the lux tax is not greatly a big thing for the right choices. I also think there is a little trade depth the Mets can utilize in the minors (Mauricio) and majors (smith, Davis, McNeil), but not Baty, Alvarez, ginn, and Allan.
I’m not sure locking up Bryant for 3B makes any sense with Baty or vientos knocking on the door. I’d trade draft slots before giving up Baty. If Cleveland would take a package to let go of Jose Ramirez, then you look at a real trade that might hurt like Vientos, Smith or McNeil and some outside the top 5 in the pipeline.
Getting back to Baez in all this context, because each decision is about a team not a single player. One question I have is about Baez as a “force multiplier” with Lindor. With a new culture coming top-to-bottom it may be that a fresh start will clear out the trash. I can see McNeil on the block to go. I think we need to forget Cano as a main figure. He’s a bench guy, DH, or gone. So with Lindor a Met for life. Perhaps getting 4 years for Baez is not out of bounds. At this point Baez would be the best 2B the team can put out there.
Hard pss on Matz. Nice guy with potential, but he’s a head case and one of the most injury prone players I’ve ever seen.
I keep changing my mind on Baez. He’s an exciting player for sure, but given the holes in his game I’m hesitant to give him a long term deal. I’d sooner go for Semien.