Mets shouldn’t shy away from old guy free agent pitchers

It’s no secret that the Mets need pitching, a statement bolstered by the unexpected departure of Noah Syndergaard. It’s unlikely that Syndergaard will throw 200 innings this year. Yet it’s likely the Mets were expecting 125 innings or so from him in 2022. Not significantly different than what they were expecting this time in 2020 for 2021, it seems. Regardless, how do the Mets replace those innings with pitchers better than Jerad Eickhoff and Robert Stock?

We all expect the Mets to dive into the free agent market. The challenge with free agency since the beginning has been not to get stuck paying today and tomorrow for yesterday’s performance. For the most part, clubs have caught on to that issue and do a pretty good job not handing out big-money, long-term deals to guys closer to 40 than to 30. In a roundabout way, the system used to work. Guys wouldn’t get paid market rate in the beginning of their careers and then they would make it up in the back end, if they were able to hang around long enough, when they got overpaid.

That will be one of the things that hopefully the owners and players will solve in the ongoing labor discussions. It’s a problem without an easy solution and good luck to both sides with that issue. But in the here and now, veterans on the wrong side of 30 generally have a tough row to hoe. And it’s just about impossible for them to get five-year deals. But can the Mets take advantage of the current reality to “replace” Syndergaard’s theoretical inning output next season?

Without doing one second of research, it seems to me that this year’s free agent class had the best quartet of super veteran pitchers available, ever. Checking in at a combined 136 years of age, with nine CY Awards among them, were Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Of course, Verlander had to ruin the premise by quickly re-signing with the Astros. After missing most of the last two seasons recovering from TJ surgery, Verlander agreed to a 1/$25 deal to return to Houston.

It’s just a tad surprising to me that the two sides agreed to a deal for that much money. Verlander is essentially in the same boat as Syndergaard, guys who were once great pitchers who now have to rediscover their greatness after sitting out for two seasons due to TJ surgery. Syndergaard is significantly younger, which plays in his favor. Verlander has been significantly better, with eight seasons with an fWAR of 4.5 or greater, compared to Syndergaard’s one. When last healthy in 2019, Syndergaard put up a 4.3 fWAR. Verlander had a 6.4 mark.

If Verlander can put up a season half as good as he did when he was last healthy, he’ll be worth his contract. Are you as confident that he can do that as the Astros are? It’s not a horrible wager but it seems to be one that any team could be forgiven for not rushing out to make. At the same time, Verlander won a CY Award with the Astros, finished second in the balloting the previous season, won the MVP of the ALCS for them and pitched in two World Series with the club. There’s a lot of history there, even if he’s only pitched for them for two full seasons and parts of two others.

Should the Mets be willing to pay the Syndergaard/Verlander rate for any of the remaining super veteran pitchers? Should they be willing to do a multi-year deal with them if that’s what it takes? Because if Verlander gets one year after missing the last two seasons, you’ve got to figure Scherzer will get a multi-year deal, for sure. And perhaps the other two, too. Let’s take a look at our remaining three pitchers.

After recovering from his early battles with depression and social anxiety, Greinke has been a model of durability throughout his career. In the 12-year period from 2008-2019, Greinke totaled 2,415.2 IP. He topped 200 innings nine times and never posted fewer than 150 IP. In the Covid year, Greinke finished 10th in the AL in innings pitched. In 2021, he threw 171 innings despite missing time with Covid. In his first 26 games, Greinke had a 3.43 ERA. He then allowed 6 ER in 4 IP before being shut down. He returned to make three more starts but gave up 14 ER in 11.1 IP in those appearances.

Greinke was slowed by neck soreness in the playoffs but tossed four scoreless innings in his only World Series appearance. Near the end of the regular season, Greinke said he “definitely” wanted to play in 2022, further saying it was a “possibility” that he would return to the Astros. Greinke will be 38 next season.

Before the injuries hit, Kershaw was the best pitcher in the game. And when he’s been healthy enough to pitch the last six seasons, he’s a combined 71-28 with a 2.60 ERA, which is pretty darn terrific. Last year was his worst season since he debuted as a 20 year old back in 2008. But what’s bad for Kershaw would be an excellent season for 99% of MLB pitchers, as he put up a 3.55 ERA in 121.2 IP.

It’s probably a low-single-digit chance that Kershaw leaves Los Angeles. But he’ll only be 34 next year and he might put up the best 125 innings of anyone on the market.

Scherzer didn’t want to come to the Mets at the trade deadline last year. That’s too bad because once he joined the Dodgers, Scherzer went 7-0 with a 1.98 ERA for Los Angeles down the stretch in 11 games. The Mets could have used that. Mets fans know first hand how good Scherzer is, having watched him dominate for the division rival Nationals for the last seven years, earning top five CY Award support in six of those seasons, including two wins and a third-place finish last year.

Agent Scott Boras tried to downplay Scherzer’s refusal to join the Mets last year, and his alleged preference for the West Coast, saying that Scherzer’s decision where to sign will be based on “winning and not geography.” Perhaps that still eliminates the Mets from being his ultimate destination. Or perhaps a contract for an old guy that we haven’t seen in a decade will change his tune.

*****

The rule is you don’t want to pay big money for old guys. But we have three pitchers available this offseason who are exceptions to that rule. In Steve Cohen’s first year as owner, the Mets were ready to spend major money to get Trevor Bauer. Now, Bauer wasn’t as old as these guys. But he wasn’t as good, either.

So, whether it’s 3/$110 for Scherzer or 2/$70 for Kershaw or 1/$30 for Greinke – let’s be open to big money for an older pitcher with a great track record. Pitching is going to be expensive and there’s not going to be much of a discount for these three old hurlers. In my opinion, all three of those deals would be better than what the Angels spent on Syndergaard. And that’s with doing what it takes to re-sign Marcus Stroman, too.