I am a big fan of WAR. Huge. I am also a fan of WAA. Old school statheads will tell you that “Average players have value”, which is why the bar is set at replacement. For the purposes of building or improving a team, replacement level isn’t as intuitive nor informative. Wins Above Average is. The average team has 81 wins. Of course, they do. Playoff teams have 88 wins, even World Series Champions. In order for the Mets to make the playoffs, which are largely a “hot hand” set of games, within the set of good teams in the playoffs, getting into the playoffs has to be first priority.
As a new General Manager seeks out potential free agents, they have to review the WAA of their players on the field, forecasted to their coming season, while accounting for experience-related and age-related growth or decline. Keeping in mind most players have their best seasons from 26-29, being on the wrong side of 30 is always risky.
The Mets’ struggles were well publicized as a dearth of offense. They didn’t score any runs. They finished 13th out of the 15 NL teams. On a side note, it is important to think in terms of leagues still because that’s where one makes the playoffs. The Mets don’t have to be better than the Orioles at run-scoring – they don’t compete with them.
Just as ZiPS forecasted the Mets to win *93* games in 2021, there will be a similarly sunny forecast. It should be easy to add up some WAA. These will be some combination of their last four years performance, and their trend.
1B – Pete Alonso – 2.5 WAA – That’s a good start!
2B – Jeff McNeil – 1.5 WAA
SS – Francisco Lindor – 2.5 WAA
3B – J.D. Davis – (0.9) WAA
LF – Dominic Smith – (1.1) WAA
CF – Brandon Nimmo – 2.3 WAA
RF – Literally no one
C – James McCann – (1.0) WAA
That adds up to 5.8 WAA, with a complete zero in RF! The biggest issue is that Mets RF was a negative 1.7 WAA (or thereabouts). The offense has a good base, but there are obvious holes. Much like this space said last year – Smith and Davis need to go. McNeil slipped a good deal last year and lost his trade value. Michael Conforto is usually good for 1.5 WAA, so if the Mets can get a hometown/redemption one- or two-year contract, he may be a suitable replacement for himself. Otherwise, the offense shopping list is pretty clear: 2B/3B, LF, RF
For pitching, much of the Mets success will be where it was last year – as Jacob deGrom goes, so goeth the Mets. When deGrom was defeating everything in sight, the Mets flew to the top, and had deGrom remained healthy, likely would have kept the Braves out of the playoffs.
The Mets had *two* pitchers throw 100 innings last year. That is a recipe for disaster. Even the Tampa Bay Rays had four pitchers throw 100 innings. Additionally, the Mets continue to mismanage their bullpen such that the relievers perform worse than the starters. This is not a normal situation. That the Mets managed to have their relievers be approximately equal to the starters in allowing runs was an improvement, but still very problematic from a team winning perspective.
As a team the pitching staff was 0.3 WAA, except when accounting for leverage (bullpen adjusted wins) was -0.7. That performance includes Edwin Diaz pitching well and Aaron Loup’s remarkable year. Doing the same kind of measurements for the pitching staff – the key will be how many innings deGrom pitches.
SP – deGrom – 6.0 WAA
SP – Carlos Carrasco – 1.0 WAA
SP – Taijuan Walker – 0.0 WAA
SP – Tylor Megill – 0.0 WAA
SP – David Peterson – 0.0 WAA
SP+ – Others – (2.5) WAA
If deGrom pitches 180-200 innings, the Mets will be flying high. If his innings are replaced by more SP+, then the rotation will be well below average.
The bullpen has players with skills – Diaz, Seth Lugo, Drew Smith, Trevor May. Unfortunately, they all perform around average, and including leverage (-1) WAA. That bullpen has room for a Loup replacement, but the management of the staff is much more critical and has been lacking for the Mets for years. The pitching shopping list is also pretty clear – two positive WAA starters. Marcus Stroman is good for 2 WAA, but I think he is soured on the Mets as a franchise. As was noted a couple of days ago, there are pitchers available that can perform as Rich Hill did – basically holding the line at average without giving too many Wins away.
All in, let’s put deGrom at 75%, bringing the pitching staff to 2 WAA, with the current team. Add in the offense, calling it 5 WAA, and the Mets look to be about 87-88 Wins. That is probably not good enough, but has easy targets for improvement.
You’ve presented your case very well, and I understand the concept of WAA and will leave others to do that figure on individual players. My fear is that this franchise; despite the availability of $$$, is still stuck in the past and moving too slow already this off season.
Right now, grabbing SP should be the top priority. It’s “nice” that the front office is saying they are “looking to add two or three”, but all that has done is drive up the already heated up cost and atmosphere for ML arms. I understand the thinking behind not paying Loup after a career year; and I’m sort of glad Syndegaard is gone; but if December arrives w/o the return of Stroman, Hill, plus at least two new SPs, then I’ll be disappointed.
And Matz better not be the (only) addition.
Getting an OF upgrade before December is also important, but I’m afraid Cohen is going to overspend on Baez instead of waiting for ST to see if McNeil can recover to man 2B. You are correct in regards to 3B…….(gee, I wonder if Baez could play third?)….only kidding.
I think your fear is well-founded. Not necessarily just the late start, but also like the Steinbrenner Yankees of the 1990 vintage, players basically saying “I don’t want to be a part of that zoo”.
I would sign Baez and move McNeil to third. Baez is a better fielder and 2B affords more value. We need *two* OF. And yes, at least two SPs.
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How fast did you expect the Mets to make moves this offseason when they have been searching for front office folks for weeks and just officially hired Eppler 5 days ago…
I expected them to have hired front office people 5 minutes after Zack Scott got a DUI.
That would mean that Alderson would need to roll up his sleeves and work, and we know he can’t be bothered to do that
Love the comment that the Mets are stuck in the past. Spot on. We neither overwhelm you with power, nor manufacture runs with small ball. We generally do not having a running game, do not bunt, and would not know a hit and run if our lives depended on it. Even worse is that we have defensive gaps at key positions. Our crosstown rivals have had pitching struggles forever but they simply contend by scoring a lot of runs, never fretting about falling 5-6 runs behind. We need some solid players added to sure up some holes and a few stars like Baez and Bryant. They define WAA. We need to move fast before the Dec 1 expiration of the CBA. Why the hell has Stroman not been resigned? Even overpaying for Baez and Bryant means nothing because they will pay for themselves when we get back the million fans who stayed away last year. It’s simple math. Those two sure up the team and give us a spark. Why is it that other teams have an urgency that we don’t seem to have. C’mon Cohen, show us the money. C’mon Eppler, show us your worth today. Give us something else to be thankful for this week!
ding, ding, ding; extra, extra….Matz is off the board. Cardinals, 4 years, 44 million.
While other organizations are striking to improve their rotations, the Mets are moving like molasses in winter. When they do decide to act, it’ll be overpaying for the remaining dregs and/or aging super star veterans.
F – I share your frustration but until the top-shelf dudes are off the market I can’t get too upset. Yes, the Mets will need to pay some premium due to their culture, but losing out on the Syndergaards, Matzes, and Loups at this stage is not necessarily bad.
It makes me shake my head when Cohen and Epoler feel that Matz’ agent had a responsibility to reach back out to them to match St. Louis’ offer. Why should they? Make your offer Steve and don’t play games. This guy has alot to learn.
Uncle Stevie is no stranger to dubious business tactics…google can provide plenty of details. As was the case with Syndergaard, and Loup for that matter, player statements mean nothing, and it is clear that players realize that the “free” in free agent is an extremely small window in life to actually be completely in the driver’s seat. This adds to the unpredictability of their decision making. In the end, I like Matz but think he is too risky on a 4 year deal after his previous implosions with the Mets. Good luck to him, except vs. Mets.
Nice article Chris. Shows the amount of work that needs to be done and may not be possible in just one off season. Also, it shows something that has been a feeling all along in that the Mets can sign a good hitter or two at key spots but don’t need to go crazy. They do need at least two front line starters and alot of pitching in general. Alot!
One year ago today, Cohen hit the ground running. This November, the team is dragging its feet at hiring a GM and then a manager while the window to sign players is small. I’m sure they’re busy, but I’d like to hope they aren’t stubborn and inflexible about “keeping their process”. I say that because I don’t trust Alderson to be capable of any adjustment to his thinking and Eppler is too new to make waves in an organization that he knows little about.
I read that Halos fans are courting and salivating for Marcus S.
What the bleep is Stevie waiting for?
Cardinals gave Matz 44M for 4? Cool, and relief to me.
Guess I still don’t know what pitchers are worth these days
Thanks to the gods that Matz signed elsewhere… best scenario for him. If anyone can get the most from a middling LH starter, it’s the Cardinals. He’ll go .500 and that’s that.
Meanwhile, anyone who suggests McNeil play 3B just does not watch the same game as I do. I’m forced to ask, when has Jeff McNeil ever put his foot down and made a game-changing play? He just doesn’t have that personality. He is a utility player, a better outfielder than infielder, which is marginal at best. I’m hoping he can regain his game at the plate, maybe hit .280 with limited power and be a useful piece. But the man is not an essential piece of any team hoping to win a division… bench strength. Problem is, I doubt he can hit in limited, sporadic ABs… unlike Pillar or even Peraza… both pretty effective off the bench.