Pete Alonso’s 2019 rookie campaign was literally one for the record books. He set a new rookie home run record (and demolished the Mets’ single season record) with 53 bombs as he mashed his way to Rookie of the Year honors. Pretty impressive for a player most believed wouldn’t crack the opening day roster due to the service time manipulation shenanigans teams pull on top prospects. After a somewhat (understandably) underwhelming COVID-shortened season in 2020, all eyes were on Alonso to see how he would fare during his actual second full season. We shouldn’t entirely discount 2020, of course, but we’re going to do it for this piece anyway.
We’ll need to get a couple of overarching points out of the way before assessing Alonso’s second full season in the majors. The first is that the 2021 Mets were a perplexingly disappointing dumpster fire of a team that failed to come close to meeting expectations. Players up and down the roster underperformed to a surprising extent, including newly acquired superstars, promising youngsters, and players once thought to be valuable core pieces of the next competitive Mets team. Despite the wholesale failures of almost all of his teammates, Alonso mostly remained a steadying force in the lineup.
The second point to address is that Alonso will likely never hit 53 home runs in a season again. He tallied a total of 37 homers in 2021, a significant drop and on the surface perhaps disappointing. However, we really need to take into account how juiced the ball was in 2019, how much the MLB may have deadened it last season, and how the league as a whole was affected when judging how many he ultimately sent over the fence in 2021.
Alonso’s HR/FB rate plummeted from 30.6% in 2019 to 19.7% in 2021 despite his fly ball percentage, launch angle, and exit velocity remaining fairly similar in both years. His hard hit rate actually moderately increased this past season as well. He did pull the ball less and his Barrel % and Sweet Spot % did drop a bit in 2021, but the overarching point is that his batted ball profile was remarkably similar in both seasons despite the significant difference in homers. Perhaps surprisingly, Alonso placed 13th overall in the MLB (and 3rd for first basemen) with his 37 home runs last season. Despite the lower raw number, it’s a good indicator that he can remain at the top of the league in homers within the context of a given season’s hitting environment.
It’s really not a stretch to state that Alonso’s 2021 was mostly a resounding success. Among MLB first basemen, he was 8th in wRC+ at 133, 9th best in fWAR at 3.0, 5th in ISO at .257, and 8th in OPS at .863. Sure, 3.0 fWAR is almost 2 full wins below the 4.9 he contributed in 2019, but that’s still tremendous value for what amounts to his second full season.
What’s really interesting is that, despite having 56 fewer plate appearances in 2021 (637) than in 2019 (693), he had 21 more batted balls in 2021. This squares with the drop in K% and BB%, as well as an uptick in Zone Swing %, overall Swing %, and first pitch swinging in combination with a drop in Whiff %. In short, Alonso was more aggressive at the plate and it (generally) paid off with more contact. You don’t like to see such a drop in ISO (.323 vs .257) or SLG (.583 vs .519) from your first baseman, of course, but it’s encouraging to see a young player seemingly adjust to the league adjusting to him as well as a literal physical change to the baseballs.
After his monster 2019 we all hoped the Mets had a new homegrown superstar on their hands. The 2021 version of Alonso and his 3.0 fWAR is not a superstar, though, especially in a league with some truly phenomenal young first basemen. He’s a very good (sometimes great) regular likely to make some all-star games during particularly good seasons, and having a few of those will do more for a team’s championship aspirations than a single expensive superstar. Having superstars is great too, of course, and it’s certainly possible that Alonso continues to blossom into one. Sharing time as a designated hitter would likely do wonders for reducing the affect his negative defense has on that fWAR.
Possibly more importantly in the context of a lost 2021 season is that Alonso came through when so many of his teammates fell flat. There’s something to be said for consistency, and it’s nice to see it with one of the Mets’ young core players during one of the more tumultuous stretches in this franchise’s history both on and off the field.
Two years of “consistency” might seem like a stretch to some, but we take them where we can get them. And hey, we could be in for one heck of a show when the MLB inevitably overcorrects back towards juiced balls and Alonso has several years of experience under his belt.
Pete should continue to improve. Putting quality hitters around him – Marte, Nimmo, Lindor, Escobar, Canha – should greatly improve the pitches he sees, more runner on base, and help him feel less pressure. While we may never see 53 HRs again, I fully expect that he threatens the 40 mark each season. He’s still very young and needs to cover those holes in the top of the strike zone, forcing pitchers to come down. If he can continue to improve his K rate, it will obviously improve his numbers and results. Adding three 33-year old (Marte, Canha, Escobar) everyday players onto a team struggling for mature leadership puts Alonso in a much easier position on the team.
Also, with Escobar, Canha, Dom, and even JD Davis each capable of playing 1B, Pete should get a lot of time at DH, which I’m not sure he will love but could see an upside… once he accepts that inevitability, he might mature into a JDMartinez type guy… very focused at the plate and very dangerous.
A 3 fWAR player is a good thing to have. It’s more or less what Starling Marte’s been in his career and he just got a 4-year deal at age 33.
The question the Mets have to answer is if they can live with a 3-WAR guy making somewhere between Marte and Lindor in AAV — because that seems to be the trajectory they’re heading with Alonso in 3-4 years when he hits free agency.
Now, you can say that’s years away and now’s not the time to be worried about that. And that’s okay – there’s certainly a lot to be done between now and then. But the sooner you make the decision, the longer you have to trade him.
The Mets can decide now that they’re not going to pay him $25-30 million a year down the road, keep him this year and trade him next offseason.
I like Alonso and have no interest in trading him for pennies on the dollar. But he plays the easiest position on the diamond. If his name was “Jared Walsh,” no one would be tossing around big numbers for a future contract. Walsh had a 2.8 fWAR last season or essentially the same production as Alonso.
Alsonso is a good player and an elite power hitter. He does play thee easiest position on the field. The Jarad Walsh reference was a good example. Eppler should be open to trade him next year for the reason you stated.
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I trade Alonso in a flash if we can get more of what we need for him than he gives us. I think we know who Alonso is and what he will probably continue to be. As I said, he may get a bit better, but he may never the be the top shelf player we would like him to be. Big bat, barely adequate at 1B… I’ll be interested to see what having a better lineup around him does for him this year, and how he rises to it.
He’s not a superstar, but he could be an excellent fourth piece in a good team. I do think he’s a better option, with much higher upside, than Dom Smith.
Alonso even at 37 HRs was the best we had and likely would have from our cast of never reaching their potential players. Conforto dropped the ball (well not literally as he made some great plays in the field) again not continue to develop and Smith disappointed after a great 2020. Davis could not stay on the field and McNeil really struggled. So with the three new additions today it’s time to package some of those now non starters and perhaps a prospect like Mauricio who is blocked forever at SS, to bring in another key player, a front line starting pitcher. As for Alonso, he will bloom again with better hitters around him resulting in him getting more fastballs and not being pitched around. He is a key player and will be fine at 1B. Hate to mess up his timing throwing him at DH unless we use that as a day off treat every now and then. But the reality is that winners want to be on the field all the time.
On the surface, it does appear that Alonso is a keeper for many reasons presented here. But, I’m with Wobbit and let me explain the benefits:
1. Alonso will not get better and has been kind of figured out. He will continue to chase away but when he gets a hold of one, he will kill it. I move him now while he’s cheap and worth quite a bit.
2. By moving Alonso, you clear your logjam while improving your defense. Alonso had the 34th best oWAR at FanGraphs, but only the 61st beat WAR. Problem is, he wants to play on the field and continue to work to improve. He has had time to try and defense peaks at 26. He’s not getting better. By clearing the logjam, you put Smith at 1B and DH Davis – both where they belong.
3. Alonso isn’t going to get better, but he is cheap and if he can stay consistent that should be good. That consistency can be worth at least two good starting pitching prospects to Detroit, Kansas City, or even Seattle.
4. He plays the easiest position to fill and you have at least two options in Smith and Davis, with Vientos behind them. Time to start making room now. Always better to trade a player a year too early, than a year too late.