One of the nice things about the Game Chatters is that they’re a way to interact with one another that you just can’t get in the comments section. It’s 99.9% likely that Metsense first mentioned that the Mets made a mistake declining the A’s trade offer of Josh Reddick for Ike Davis in an article on the site. But then he would mention it more than once in the Chatters and it became part of his persona. You’d read a box score that Reddick homered and you’d go – well, Metsense will point this out tonight when Davis goes 0-4 with 4 Ks on pitches a foot out of the strike zone.
My moment like this came just a little later, when the Mets turned down a trade offer following the 2014 season, when the Twins offered Eduardo Escobar for Dillon Gee. For a few years, Gee was a solid pitcher for the Mets, even if he had the frustrating habit of only pitching well for half a season at a time. But the Mets needed pitching when he first came up and they didn’t have anything better. But that wasn’t going to be the case in 2015. Much like Metsense couldn’t believe the Mets didn’t pull the trigger on the Davis-Reddick swap, it infuriated me that the Mets didn’t rush to say yes on a Gee-Escobar deal.
Gee’s last season for the Mets was 2015, when he went 0-3 with a 5.90 ERA in 39.2 IP. Gee left the Mets following the 2015 season and bounced around the next two years before his career ended. In the final three years of his career – you know, after the Mets turned down the Twins’ trade offer of Escobar – Gee was 11-14 with a 4.63 ERA in 214 IP.
Meanwhile, the then 26-year-old Escobar put up a 105 OPS+ in 2015. He had a down year in 2016 but since then he’s been very reliable. From 2017-2021, Escobar has a 106 OPS+ in 2,650 PA. He’s been between a 100 and 119 OPS+ in four of those five years, the only exception being the strike-shortened 2020, when he posted a 63 mark. Add Escobar to the list of guys – one that includes Javier Baez and Jonathan Villar – for whom you should throw out the results of the Covid year.
It’ll be nice to see Escobar on the Mets, even if it happens eight years later than it should have. But it does seem fair to wonder why Escobar and not Villar. To be sure, Villar wasn’t my favorite Met ever. Yet he’s very similar to Escobar and two years younger, too. On top of that, he’s already performed solidly as a Met. It’s likely the “can’t perform in New York” thing is as overrated and overstated as “guys perform better in contract years” is. Still, you have to wonder why the Mets chose Escobar over Villar for a spot on the 2022 team.
Escobar signed a 2/$20 deal. Did the Mets offer this same deal to Villar and he declined? It’s hard to imagine Villar getting a much better deal than that. Plus, he’s got a better path to playing time with the 2022 Mets than he did the 2021 squad. Or did the Mets not offer it because they thought that Escobar’s power and defense was going to be more valuable than Villar’s OBP and speed?
Lifetime, Escobar has a .309 OBP and a .436 SLG, compared to Villar’s .326/.403 marks, respectively. And does Escobar really have a defensive edge over Villar? Last year Villar was not good at 3B, putting up a (-4) DRS and a (-4.8) UZR in 748 innings at the hot corner. But he was very good in 199 innings at SS, posting a 4 DRS and a 1 UZR at the tougher position.
Last year was the first time since 2016 that Villar played third base. To be fair, he wasn’t very good when he played third in either 2015 or 2016. All told, he has 1,177 innings at third base, or about one full season’s worth of innings. His numbers aren’t good but it’s hard to imagine that a natural shortstop couldn’t put up better numbers at third if he had a full offseason to prepare.
All of this feels to me like bizarro world – finally getting the guy we should have gotten years ago in Escobar yet wondering if the Mets would have been better off keeping a non-favorite of mine in Villar, instead. Perhaps the big thing to watch is how Escobar’s power will play in Citi Field. In parts of four seasons with the Diamondback, Escobar had a .214 ISO. Villar has a .167 ISO last year. Interestingly, Villar did better at Citi Field (.177) than in away games (.158) in 2021.
Of course, there’s one thing that we haven’t considered yet. Maybe what pushed the Mets to picking Escobar over Villar was Escobar’s willingness to be a super sub. Perhaps Villar thought his bounceback effort last season, combined with his two-year age advantage, meant he should have a guaranteed starting position and the Mets didn’t feel like they could offer that. While third base looks ripe for the taking right now – maybe the Mets still have plans to add another bat there to the mix.
And why Canha over Pillar?
The signing of Marte as the CF so Nimmo will move to a corner outfield position and thus can be the backup centerfielder which would make Pillar redundant because Smith and McNeil can play the outfield.
Pillar was their 4th outfielder with a O.5 bWAR and a OPS+ of 88
Canha was a starting outfielder with a 2.5 bWAR and a OPS+ of 111
Cahha is the better player than Pillar and Pillar is not starter in this stage of his career.
Maybe OPS in RISP situations: Escobar .856 vs Villar .471
Or OPS whe facing LHP: Escobar .877 vs Villar. 722
RISP and LHP were a problem for the Mets last season.
Escobar has two seasons of 28 and 35 homeruns.
Villar has experienced the collapse and Escobar is new blood.
I liked Villar and thought was going to have a good 2021, and he did, but Escobar should be a slightly better player than Villar in 2022 and is a better left handed bat.
You might be onto something with the split versus LHP. Lifetime, Escobar has a .777-.733 edge.
But if Conforto is gone and McNeil and Smith are part-time players – is the need for a batter to perform versus LHP as extreme as it was in 2021? Marte and Canha are already upgrades.
Escobar is a better player than Villar. Escobar seems to have a better resume as a consistent starter. Most of all, looking at Fangraphs, Escobar is the far better defensive player. Villar was okay last year as a bench mobber, but his glove at 3B was bad to the eye test and to the stats.
Regarding Canha, he is a better player than Pillar, far superior offensively, worse defensively, overall at least a 1.0 WAR improvement. That matters.
I think the established right handed bats with average or better than average fielding made these new additions better choices than Villar and Pillar. In fairness to that pair, the Mets would have sunk much faster than they did without their timely play filling in. Escobar can play second or third which makes McNeil stay in the mix if Baez signs elsewhere. I see the new additions as place holders for Baty and Vientos. Trades are such a tricky thing when you are looking to swap your spare parts for other teams spare parts hoping to catch lightning in the bottle. Liked Ike Davis but he star burned out pretty quickly. Some teams do a better job of drafting and evaluating talent. Can’t say the Mets are near the top of that heap.
With the addition of Marte and Canha and now Escobar, is there that much of an upgrade getting Bryant? And he’s no spring chicken either. Now how about those starting arms!!
Villar was better than I hoped last season. His defense dropped late in the season, but he was considerably better than he showed me before he became a Met. A drop off near the end of the season cost him on the stat sheet. Offensively he had a few great runs. There were time when he was the best ball-to-bat hitter in the lineup. But as I said a month or more ago, the Mets probably got their money’s worth from Villar and would be pushing their luck to try it again.
Pillar was all that I could have hoped for. He consistently had quality ABs off the bench, and he performed well defensively. His tragic HBP and subsequent recovery was an inspiration on a team that lacked them, and he conducted himself with supreme grace… not something one takes for granted…
I love the Escobar signing. I wanted I’m since we played his team back in the summer. Very versatile player to have and reduced strikeout rates. Great clubhouse personalty… will take pressure off Lindor in that realm. Money really well spent.
Canha a better player than anyone who played LF for the Mets this year. He scored 93 runs while driving in 61… how did that happen? Not easy for a guy not hitting at the top of the order. I wanted him above way others in that price range… also reduced strikeout rate… I value contact hitting more than most guys and I like the good baserunning.
Martel… the Mets finally have leadoff hitter who can steal a base… really ramps up runs scored, especially early in games… a huge advantage. Moving Nimmo to a corner is huge. I like him LF because of his terrible throwing arm… hope Canha throws better.
Why would they not bring him back?
So far, so good re: these signings. I really hope though, that the Mets don’t spend 30m a year for Scherzer. Give me two SP for that price from what’s available. I’d rather spend the 30m in getting both Stroman and Hill back, with change left over for more pitching help. And I’d rather not sign Baez, and use the money for more pitching.
The worse case scenario for me is overpaying for Baez and Scherzer and thinking this will make us contenders in 2022.
Would rather they had gotten Adam Frazier for 2B, packaged JD, McNeil, Smith and a prospect… What did Seattle give up for a veritable base-hit machine?
Brian, I think you may have answered your own question. If the front office sees Escobar as primarily a third baseman, the 2-year deal is perfect to allow time for Baty or Vientos to develop. I think I would prefer Villar at second, but Escobar is better at the hot corner.
Also, with Canha and Marte on top of Nimmo, we have enough table setters and need another guy who can drive in some runs.
All the comments make sense, but I’ll add a purely subjective thought: the Mets need a shake up in personnel come April. Not only does Eppler need to make it his team, but the team needs new faces to break the rut. Would conforto be better than Canha? Possibly-to-probably, but his run in NY is over. We will see a lot of new faces, and hope another year of “rebuilding for it” (trade mark ChrisF!!!) yields different results.
I like the emerging plan that sees Smith, McNeil, Davis (SMD) as bench depth or trade chips. I actually prefer to see them as hungry to get AB bench players. They need to earn AB, basically as none have a position in need or even a natural position to play at.
ChrisF, agree 100%. I would not be in a hurry to trade any of those three unless someone blows us away. Especially with the likelihood of a DH coming to the NL.
All reports have Escobar described as a terrific teammate, a great clubhouse guy.
We do know that the Mets clubhouse, overall group makeup, was a problem. A passive young core of “nice guys” that failed to develop, and possibly a divide between Latin and white players.
Villar, for reasons that are far less clear, is a guy that just about every team that has dealt with him goes for one season and says, “Adios!”
We do know that he gets picked off all the time and that in a recent season he led all of baseball in striking out on ball four (pitches off the plate).
I strongly suspect there are significant clubhouse issues with him. The Marlins dumped him specifically for that reason (after a solid season). He’s talented and useful — but something is off. Team after team takes a good look at him and decides that’s enough of that.
It’s not a numbers/data thing.
JimmyP