Just as we were enjoying one of the most exciting Mets off-seasons in years, the MLB lockout shut off the gas on the hot stove. Have you ever been really into a movie and the cable or the power goes out? Now we have awkward, speculative conversations while we sit and wait…and wait.
While team front offices have not been permitted to make free agent signings or trades during this time, surely they’ve been strategizing and pontificating about how they might complete their rosters before opening day, which, fingers crossed, will still happen on schedule.
While the Mets aggressively signed four free agents before the lockout, the roster is far from complete. There are holes, log jams, square pegs, and question marks. While the GMs can’t talk to each other, surely the Mets front office executives and experts have been talking amongst themselves. Hopefully, they’re discussing the best ways to solve this jigsaw puzzle and that starts with some key questions.
Is the checkbook still open? Despite having remaining holes to fill, the Mets already have the highest payroll in MLB. There’s no telling what the new soft cap will be on payroll before the luxury tax kicks in, how much the penalties will be, and ultimately, how much more Steve Cohen is willing to spend. As much speculation as there has been around Kris Bryant, do we really have room for another $100 million+ contract? Whatever we have left to spend, it would be a lot wiser to spread it out to fill in at the margins with relievers, rotation depth, and versatile bench pieces. There is still plenty of inventory out there.
Are there smart trades to be made? Cincinnati and Oakland are both reportedly looking to shave payroll and both teams have quality starting pitchers. What would it take to land someone like Luis Castillo or Sean Manaea?
What do we do with Robinson Cano? He might still be worth a quarter of his salary if he can play DH. If the new collective bargaining agreement does not include a National League DH however, Cano is a sunk cost and a wasted roster spot and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Mets don’t release him. He is untradeable and doesn’t have the range or durability to play in the field anymore. A right side of the infield of Cano and Alonso will result in far too many ground balls getting through for singles that should have been outs or double plays and that will not fly under the defensive-minded Buck Showalter.
J.D. Davis, Dominic Smith, Jeff McNeil – who stays and who goes? This one is easier than it seems. 1) None of them are making big bucks so there’s no great reward in “unloading” them. 2) They all have diminished value coming off down years. 3) They all have value to the team and the potential to bounce back. In other words the only urgency to move one of these players will come from the other 29 GMs and their level of interest. There is zero sense in giving away any of these young, controllable, and talented players. If one or more of them can be part of a package to land one of the pitchers from Oakland or Cincinnati, great. If one of them can fetch an exciting prospect, great. If not, they give us depth in the short-term and maybe a good trade chip or two in the summer. Trading any of them now is risky. Any Mets fan reading this want to bet that one of them doesn’t turn into the next Justin Turner/Daniel Murphy story?
Here’s a scenario. No great trade materializes. If there is a DH, we may still have to dump Cano to open playing time for Davis and Smith. There are so many ways for this to play out. For now, we can only speculate while we wait for the players and owners to realize that no matter who wins in the negotiations, fans lose and the league and its 30 teams will lose fans if this goes on much longer. #LGMLB
A very accurate and intelligent account of the situation. Billy Eppler, of course, can completely blow the whole thing up with one move. But even if he doesn’t, the Mets can start the season as they stand now and wait and see.
Specifically:
Cano: can he still hit. Period.
JDD: can he get the required number of ABs to make him an important factor… not likely to play much in the field. We know his potential.
McNeil: does he still fit in the clubhouse. No doubt he is versatile enough and potentially a bounce-back candidate. I believe he may be the first to go of the three.
Dom Smith: hanging by a thread, which might take all season to determine. He’s gotta hit better than Cano to be of value.
Regardless, the Mets are considerably better than they ended last season.
Cano was a border line HOFer before the steroids. He’s a hitter. Don’t be so quick to show him the door and eat all that money. I’m betting he bounces big as DH (290,20, 80).
You should’ve had two puzzle pieces missing are your graphic by second base and the pitchers mound.
Cano will likely be the DH and McNeil the second baseman. It seems that Cano will not be cut initially. That will delegate Smith and JD as the primary PH’s but with the DH there are few opportunities for a PH. They would be expendable.
If McNeil is traded then Cano and JD will get time in the field which would be unappealing. Trading McNeil, Smith and JD should improve the roster and not diminish it. A starting pitcher, a back end reliever, a second baseman* and 4th outfielder should be the primary targets. ( * if McNeil is traded)
Cohen will open the checkbook if he needs to supplement the roster but just not a mega deal. After all, he spent big bucks already and will not be miserly now for a few million bucks more.
Gotta land another starting pitcher…or 2. More likely via trade at this point.
Castillo, Manae, Babbitt would be the big gets. But what would it take? McNeil/Mauricio?
Gotta land 2 more reliable backend relievers. Chafin, Tepera, McHugh
We go into the season with the offense we have now, plus those additions, we’re a 90+ win team.
It’s pretty simple: You have 26 roster spots. 8 relievers and 5 starting pitchers is half. To start the other half with McNeil at 2B, Escobar at 3B, and say Cano at DH are the starters which is nine guys. The four bench spots are Nido, Davis, Smith, and Guillorme; there is no reason to move anyone. The only reason will be when the kids are ready to move up. Until then, let’s find some pitchers.
I see McNeil switched his number to 1 for Marte…
I believe there will be trades and those are so hard to predict as dominoes tumble. Whereas the signing of free agents tend to be predictable, trades often come out of the blue.
My core beliefs as I read the tea leaves:
1) There’s no way Lindor wants Jeff to play his crappy brand of 2B again next year. I just don’t see them at keystone partners. He’s on the block and the Mets will need a quality 2B glove to fill the hole. Again, I like Kolton Wong.
2) Dom Smith offers a big fat zero on the defensive spectrum. He doesn’t bring anything to the party. Maybe he’s a terrific hitter, I just don’t see it. In the outfield, he’s just like waving a white flag. He’s Lucas Duda out there. A bad idea.
3) JD Davis is one of those spare pieces that may or may not stick depending on the other moves. He’s a strong RH hitter and can play some (poor) 3B for you here and there. Maybe Vientos can give us that.
4) The bullpen is not good enough. Josh Hader would make a huge difference. Package him with Wong and see what’s what. Or ignore that and sign another late-inning guy. If Lugo repeats last season’s performance, he really can’t be counted on. I hope they have a clear reading on his health.
5) I feel like they should sign the Japanese outfielder. The price won’t be insane. I prefer Canha as my 4th outfielder who gets 450 ABs — as he’s done for the bulk of his career. He’s a great insurance policy.The 4th OF will be an important position. You can’t throw Fat Dom Smith out there and watch Max roll his eyes as the white ball drops.
6) They need another starter. Maybe through trade.
7) On Cano, the team needs to evaluate him in the Spring. I see him as a DH with the ability to fill-in at 2B here and there. I’d like to see if he can play 3B. If the bat doesn’t look right — or, more likely, the body’s aches and pains hold him back — the Mets will have to move on. But he is not a regular 2B and he’s not “blocking” anyone. So many Sleepy Dom Smith still has time to impress the club: I don’t see that he has any trade value, so that’s probably the best reason for sticking with him.
Team still needs to improve. We’re not close to the Braves.
However: I think Jeff was exactly the type of hitter who was most damaged by the Sandy/Quattlebaum “data dump” fiasco. Jeff is a grip-it-and-rip-hit guy, all instinct, and there’s no value in cluttering up his mind. They obviously screwed up Conforto. Maybe they messed too much with Dom, too. Jeff at 4th OF makes some sense. My gut tells me they don’t want him around next season. Sort of like Dykstra.
Ultimately, I think team was in the process of being remade and they ran out of time. The flush isn’t complete; the truck is fully loaded. I believe that trades will largely drive the next phase of this process.
To be really good, they are going to need to trade 1-2 prospects.
Editor’s Note – Please do not capitalize words in your post
JimmyP – I wanted Kolton Wong last year. Great defender with a solid bat. I’m not sure if Milwaukee is looking to cut payroll, but I’d be willing to give up plenty for a Wong-Hader package deal. I’m hoping that we can get a package like that or something comparable out of Cinci or Oakland for 1 or 2 of McNiel/Smith/Davis + 1 or 2 of Mauricio/Lee/Vientos.