It’s no secret that the Mets are ready and willing to move J.D. Davis, Jeff McNeil and Dominic Smith. That sentence would have been nearly unimaginable this time last year. Sure, they might have been willing to deal Davis but not the other two. But then 2021 happened. Is the team’s willingness to deal guys who performed in the past and had one bad season a smart idea? That’s a legitimate question. But so, too, is asking if any of the three can rebound to their previous heights.
Can Davis stay healthy and improve his fielding enough to keep his bat in the lineup?
Can McNeil be more of a team player and rediscover his BABIP magic?
Can Smith find the power that went AWOL in 2021?
McNeil might have the easiest path to playing time here before Spring Training starts. But neither Davis in 2019 nor Smith in 2020 had clear paths to starting gigs but they hit themselves into that role before too much of the season passed. If you hit, the team will find ABs for you.
Both Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar bring things to the table. But Canha’s 2019 seems like a big outlier and it wouldn’t take too much slippage from his 2021 numbers for PAs in the outfield to materialize. And Escobar is counted on to bring power to the club but what if he finds hitting in Citi Field more of a challenge than hitting at Chase Field, where he put up a .559 SLG in 2019? If that happens, there are PA in the infield, too.
Of course, there’s also the possibility that the DH is part of the equation, too.
Last year, Brandon Drury had a .783 OPS for the Mets, which translated to an OPS+ of 112. Smith and McNeil fell well short of those numbers, while Davis easily exceeded them in his injury-plaued season. Smith has 132 and a 168 OPS+ seasons under his belt, albeit in years where he failed to reach 200 PA. McNeil posted OPS+ numbers of 138, 143 and 130 prior to 2021. Davis has a 128 OPS+ since joining the Mets.
We know that people you count on to be starters and get 550 or more PA in a season get hurt or fall on their face. It happens every single year. Knowing that, should the Mets be so eager to trade away solid depth pieces? Maybe you think Smith isn’t solid. But even with last year’s disappointing season, he was only four points of OPS+ behind Kevin Pillar.
Recently, it came to light how screwed up the Mets’ offensive approach last year was, with the manager being steamrolled by the front office in how information was being relayed to the players. If you believe that the nerds running amok was detrimental to the hitters – why trade those same hitters when their value is low? Isn’t it a reasonable assumption that if the toxic environment that contributed to their struggles is removed, that they might bounce back to previous levels?
No player is untouchable and certainly not guys who put up a sub-100 OPS+ last year in significant playing time. But there’s a difference between making a trade and making the right trade. And it seems to me that too many people are too eager to make a deal, just so that the same players aren’t on the team next year. It also seems to me that at least one of Davis, McNeil and Smith will bounce back and put up a strong year in a significant role, one that includes at least 300 PA. But which one? So, regardless of which team they are playing for in 2022 – who do you see putting up that strong year?
Which player will have the best season in 2022?
- Jeff McNeil (56%, 10 Votes)
- J.D. Davis (39%, 7 Votes)
- Dominic Smith (6%, 1 Votes)
Total Voters: 18
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Not such an easy thing to consider, but i voted for JD Davis – its a soft vote. I view all three as bench level players.
JD produced a > 1 bWAR when his OPS+ was 137, and that gave him a 1.2 bWAR. Yes, barely above replacement. I voted for him on th emotion that defense can be improved some and he is athletic. That said, the terrific 137 OPS+ season was floated on a .355 BABIP. Worse, his OPS+ 126 last year (on limited ABs) was floated on a .426 (yes, .426) BABIP, and that only got to a 0.8 bWAR. Screaming bench player.
Smith’s story as I have have documents is entirely linked to BABIP. His only success at the plate comes from an unreasonably high BABIP. His defense is atrocious. Any thought of moving Pete off 1B to get Dom 600 ABs is utterly nonsense in my eyes. Again, he’s a bench player.
McNeil is the most likely to be better. He needs to stop listening to Sandy and his catastrophic batting ideas from 30 years ago and just go back to be a gap to gap line drive hitter. He’s better as a doubles guy. He needs to forget any notion of upper cut and “launch angle” insanity and make contact with a level swing through the zone. His problem is in your story: he got a big attitude problem with a key player on the team, seems very immature for his age, and in reality is passable on defense. I think if he remains a Met, the numbers wont be good, but if he is traded, then he could have quite a good season. I’d probably change my vote from Davis to McNeil after thinking about it.
I think McNeil is a guy who could hit .320 w/ 15 HRs.
Mets philosophy has been against using the whole field — driven by the data guys — and I think lefty hitters in particular need to counter the shift (which would drive BABIP numbers up, btw, not as a result of luck but of hitting ability).
Conforto pulling grounders into the shift.
Dom is also a guy who can get on base by virtue of going the other way. He just looked baffled all season.
As much as I love JD, he gets beat on good fastballs a lot. Seems a tad slow to my eyes. But because he is such a smart hitter, a studious hitter, I feel he can make adjustments provided he gets regular ABs. But I have been seeing the slow bat for a couple of years now and that’s a tough fix. You start to cheat and become vulnerable to the off-speed stuff.
I wouldn’t mind if they all left and Mets created a completely new vibe & team.
The way that the team roster is presently constructed there no clear path for Smith or JD to get 300 AB but they shouldn’t trade them unless it will improved the present roster. Smith slipped when he got 400 AB’s so he has to prove himself for a full season. JD has been a consistent hitter with the Mets so he isn’t a bounce back candidate and should a similar or better OPS+ this year no matter what AB’s he gets . McNeil has more than three .832 OPS+ seasons out of four in his career. That is why I chose him before the other two, no matter where the three of them will end up.
I wonder if you can get an interesting AA arm for Smith. Not a future star, but a live arm.
I have a very hard time imaging a team giving up much for him. Though I could imagine a team that is intentionally tanking liking his salary & upside potential.
Dom’s disastrous 2021 season really complicated things. He was — what? — a total of -0.7 WAR last season. That’s hard to do. Is he that bad? Probably not, so long as you don’t put him on the field.
Can he hit like Kyle Schwarber? He needs to.
But my question: What do you think his market value is if he were traded this off-season?
So one answer is that given that nobody wants to trade for him, he’s worth more to the Mets than anything we could get for him. Which leads to the next question: He takes up a roster spot. We’ve got 13 of them for players. Is Dom, by taking that spot, going to help the Mets more than if “we” bring in someone else who can, say, field and, oh, run?
If you think 2020 was real — and that’s valid — then you hope like hell that guy shows up. Unfortunately, we are looking at a shortened Spring Training that’s going to make any meaningful evaluation harder than it already is.
Conclusion: If you believe in Dom, you are rolling the dice. If you don’t believe, if you don’t feel lucky, you move on to somebody else. You play the odds and hope for the best. Nobody knows the answer.
Editor’s Note – Don’t capitalize words in your post.
A lot to digest from Brian’s article…and the responses to it have been intelligent and gives me more to ponder.
1. The value of all three are low at present after their down year.
2. All three do have track record of varying success.
3. All three are cheap for any team to trade for, and to give them significant playing time.
4. McNeil has the best chance for AB and success with the Mets, but other options are available at 2B and/or as a backup OF. There is also the matter of creating a better chemistry on the team which may have him dealt away. I believe he does have the most value of the three in a trade. Hopefully, at least a solid BP arm and a prospect.
5. In any case, all three will have better years with organizations other then the Mets; if traded.
6. Let’s hope all three have a great ST to increase their value to other teams.
7. If Davis is 100% healthy, I think he’ll hit like crazy to make suitors up their ante to get him.
8. There is no room for Smith on this team; DH or no DH. With a DH, Cano will be the lefty bat, and Davis will be the righty bat. Unless the Mets release Cano and keep the cheaper Smith.
9. I expect our new manager will make the right call and convince the FO of what the roster should look like, by the end of ST.
10. So my vote for the player to have the best 2022 is…..McNeil.
I think McNeil is a goner. McNeil for Sonny Grey. I see Dom as a goner too. JD maybe the DH if Cano falls on his face.
Sacrifice McNeil (chemistry).. we have Guillorme.
Dump Dom. (not good enough)
Wait on JD, then trade at his peak value.
Bury the poor horse.
Option D should be “the one we trade away.” I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but it just seems that whenever the Mets have a player to spare, we inevitably trade away the wrong one – Kevin Mitchell, Jeff Kent, Justin Turner, etc.
Given the very possible scenario that Cano is toast — or breaks down physically — it could be dangerous to move quickly and trade away all three (Davis, Smith, McNeil).
With the lockout and presumed shortened Spring Training, we will probably see a strange preseason where there is more movement & roster shuffling & trades than in normal years.
Some tough decisions ahead, based on imperfect information. Glad I don’t have to make them.
Jimmy P – I actually had the same thought about being glad I’m not the one making the decision around which of these 4 players stays and goes. Then again, if they paid me what Billy Eppler is getting paid, I think I could cross my fingers and pick out of a hat. Two years from now, while Mets fans are inevitably squawking about “we shouldn’t have traded that guy,” we can revisit this and go on about what we should have done differently.
It’s doubtful that all 3 of McNeil/Smith/Davis will be quality starting players in two years, yet it’s equally doubtful that all 3 will be out of the league. My educated guess is that one of them breaks out and blossoms into a good player while the other two go the Ike Davis/Lucas Duda route and fizzle out after a couple years. It sure would be nice to see the Mets guess correctly for once.
I voted for McNeil and was not surprised to see his total and JD’s close. McNeil can play an adequate 2B and except for last year, he was a huge asset at the plate. He is the easiest to rebound, play 2B and serve in other roles around the diamond. We got Escobar so that we did not have to agonize over JD’s fielding, which only becomes an non issue if he tears the cover off the ball. Smith is the easiest to deal as he is a strong 1B obviously blocked by Alonso. I see a combo trade of two of these and a prospect for a front line starter. We need one more sure arm in the rotation which falls apart if one of our Cy Young starters go down. All three of the players of this article are cheap and controllable for the near future, two things clubs like. Alternatively, all three would be a step up from any other bench players if they remain with the club but are not starters. Would love to see the impasse end so that we can get back to baseball, filling out the roster and getting ready for what will likely be a delayed spring training. Shame on both sides for letting this happen.