It’s been a while since Jacob deGrom has been the second pitcher tackled in the projection series. That doesn’t mean that deGrom is necessarily the second-best pitcher on the staff. It would be wrong to think that if deGrom made 30 starts that any pitcher would provide more value than he would. Of course, after last season, 30 starts no longer seems like a guarantee. Let’s see what the computer models forecast for deGrom:
ATC – 2.48 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 2.16 BB/9, 13.01 K/9, 0.89 HR/9
Marcel – 2.61 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9, 11.7 K/9, 0.9 HR/9
RotoCh – 1.96 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 1.76 BB/9, 12.85 K/9
Steamer – 2.55 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 2.01 BB/9, 13.02 K/9, 0.91 HR/9
THE BAT – 2.63 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 2.64 BB/9, 13.20 K/9, 0.90 HR/9
ZiPS – 2.28 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 2.01 BB/9, 12.67 K/9, 0.83 HR/9
Of course, the thing missing is IP. We decided not to include that this year with the unknown of when the season would start. But to the best of my knowledge, all of these forecasts are for a 162-game season. Marcel had the low with 124 IP while Steamer had the highest total with 152 innings. All of the models think he’ll be a dominating pitcher. They just think he’ll be limited to about 2/3 of a season.
There were multiple injuries suffered by deGrom last season, which interrupted what looked like it might be an all-time great pitching year. He was regularly throwing triple digits. The conventional wisdom is that deGrom should dial back his velocity, that if he throws in the mid-to-high 90s that will keep him healthier than if he tries to throw every fastball at 102.
To which I say – screw conventional wisdom.
On the surface, the conventional wisdom certainly makes sense. But throwing the ball 95 mph is a violent, unnatural action for all of the parts of the forearm, elbow and shoulder. Just like it’s silly to pretend that a pitch count of 98 is okay but 107 pitches is dangerous, it seems equally made up that 97 mph is safe but 101 is dangerous.
To be able to throw as hard as the elite pitchers do is not normal when looked at from the general population. But even if we limit it to the MLB-pitcher universe, the ability to throw 97 and up after throwing 90 pitchers is pretty darn rare. No matter how you slice it, deGrom is an outlier among outliers.
My opinion is that babying these MLB outliers isn’t the way to go. Now, that doesn’t mean you ask deGrom to throw as hard as he can for nine innings in a 35-degree April day in his first start of the year. You build up to things where when it’s nice and warm in June then you can think about that type of outing, if everything is going right that particular day.
Another thing to consider is that deGrom himself said that some of the injuries he suffered last year were from batting, not pitching.
We all want the Mets and deGrom to do whatever it takes for him to make 30 starts in 2022. At the same time, we need to acknowledge that there is zero evidence that asking him to dial it back to 97 mph will keep him healthy. We are essentially in unchartered territory with deGrom. Maybe Nolan Ryan was throwing 100 mph after he had already thrown 80 or so pitches. But you know what, Ryan pitched until he was 46. And before you say that Ryan never missed as many starts as deGrom did last year, you have to acknowledge that he never injured himself batting, either.
It’s amazing what elite athletes backed with the best coaches and trainers can accomplish. My first instinct is not to put limits on players. If deGrom thinks he can perform at max effort over a full season and neither the coaches nor medical people can provide a scientific reason why he can’t, it seems odd to me to tell him otherwise.
In the 60s and 70s, when we saw some pitchers throw 250 and more innings in a season, we found out that not everyone could survive multiple years with that type of workload. Since we didn’t know which pitchers were Tom Seaver – 11 years with at least 250 IP – and which were Jim Bouton – 271.1 IP at age 25 and never reached 152 IP again, – it made sense to pull the reigns. But what deGrom is doing is not being done by any other pitcher in today’s game.
Maybe, like breaking the 4-minute mile, it’s a psychological barrier that someone just needed to cross to show others it could be done. Or maybe deGrom is just a freak, able to throw like Secretariat ran at Belmont in 1973.
One thing our society has a big problem with today is thinking that one’s opinion is truth. This is my opinion and it’s presented as such. And if deGrom has a repeat of 2021, and this time without injuries from batting, then it will be easy for me and everyone else to say this opinion was proven wrong. It makes no difference to me if you agree with this opinion. All I ask is that you do the same and not treat your opinion on this matter as fact.
My totally biased forecast for deGrom:
200 IP in a full season and other numbers better than the most optimistic numbers above.
God this is just really wishful thinking but…
1.80 ERA
0.89 WHIP
1.1 BB/9
13K/9
0.85 HR/9
178 IP
15 wins
Can’t even begin to guess on Jake’s health.
Feels wishful to think all those red flags from last season will just disappear.
I suppose crossing my fingers does not exactly qualify as a “forecast,” but it’s the best I’ve got.
I can’t see where Jake will not come back to the pack more. Last season was other worldly, and it will take unearthly events to get him back to that level… like a fully healthy body, a completely confident mind, and opponents not adjusting.
The body we’ll have to wait and see about. Hopefully, his problems will not recur. It might be hard for him to ignore all the advice he will hear to “dial it back”… he’ll ultimately do what feels right.
The mind is the wild card. Jake will need maximum confidence to pitch like he did last ear, and that takes time to find after injuries. I think Max will help.
Opponents will adjust. Despite all the 102 last season, it was his slider that was truly his dominant pitch, and it stands to reason that he may lean more on it this year. If players learn to lay off more, Jake may walk a few more and strikeout a few less.
I’ll gladly take 170 IP / 2.40 ERA / 1.5 BB / 11 Ks / 14-4
180 innings, 1.75 era, 2BB, 10K, 16-3
Can’t expect him not to miss time based on his history and age. Era stays solid because he has a better fielding team behind him. Finally wins a respectable amount of games because he has a better hitting team behind him. Max is certainly an outlier at his age so there is a model for us to hope Jake continues to follow. He will continue to degrominate the 7-8-9 hitters in the order like Doc did in ‘85 even if the pitcher’s spot turns into the DH in the NL. As I said last season, as Jake goes, so go the Mets. I approach this season with high hopes and low expectations. That’s been my 60 year manta since the start even when I was too young to fully understand the nuances of the game.
I mostly agree with the previous poster, especially about 180 IP. However, I differ that it represents “missed time based on history and age”, but rather prudent choice. After all, since 2014 (not counting the COVID year), these are the IP totals for MLB leaders (at year’s end):
248.1
232.2
230
214.1
220.2
223
(2020)
213.1
There’s a definite downward trend
A few other predictions:
ZW, who led MLB in IP last year, will be injured by the stupidity of the Phils overworking him
Also, the previous poster will amend his Mets360 screenname to NYM698622
If the Mets win it all this year then he absolutely needs to update that handle!
What I can say is show me the title and I’ll throw a change the user name party!
I think it is pretty clear that deGrom is a freak, it’s just a question of how freakish. To claim that as fact is not that outlandish, since out of about 8 billion humans on the planet, he may be one of single digits that can repeatedly propel a baseball in the manner that he does. That’s enough math for me.
Wobbit’s number look good to me, so I’ll double down on them, if he is kind enough to allow that. Coming back to the pack for a 2.40 ERA over 170 innings is further proof of freakishness.
There are multiple ifs for every MLB team in every season, but if SP 1 and 1a perform to the back of the baseball cards, the Mets will be most entertaining this season…so long as these knuckleheads allow for a season.
215 Innings 2.45 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, 12 K/9, 0.7 HR/9
If he pitches and when he pitches, I expect him will be stellar just like in the past.
1.95 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 1.85 BB/9 , 1218 K/9, 0.65 HR/9
If we thought Jake’s accomplishments last year were superhuman, then perhaps they were, and pitching like that is simply not sustainable. You gotta know that Jake thinks about that all day. Yet he still sets very high standards and wants to get somewhere close to it.
We will learn a great deal by how he approaches this year. I’ll gladly take 85% Jake, knowing that it might mean several more years of him. He knows that another good season, even if not other-worldly, will put money in the bank. His ultimate goal has got to be staying healthy and staying relevant… not sitting out watching from the dugout.
Max takes some pressure off his shoulders and gives him a great reason to stay in the rotation.
I have no idea if he’s okay but I will play. I see a Kershaw type situation, with Jake not being able to stay on the field at times but still an excellent pitcher when he is available.
An under 3.00 ERA, less SOs per IP (but still plenty) – but only 110 innings.
Also – My opinions are totally unbiased!
Here’s a prediction:
Buck pulls him after 6 hitless innings and 72 pitches on May 12th.