On a potential reunion with Michael Conforto

On November 26, the Mets signed three free agents to major league contracts. According to FanGraphs’ Roster Resource section, in the six-day period from 11/26 to 12/1, MLB clubs signed 40 free agents to MLB deals. In the same six-day period in 2020, there were four such deals. It just shows you what can be done when teams are motivated buyers and players are motivated sellers. We’re going to have the same set of circumstances whenever the lockout gets settled. The good news is that teams have had a practice run already, which should make the process easier this time out.

MLB insider Jon Heyman recently tweeted:

Have heard Mets might consider signing another significant pitcher and hitter once the lockout ends, on top of Scherzer, Marte, Canha and Escobar. If so $270M payroll could approach $300M.

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) January 31, 2022

We have visions of Carlos Rodon and Kris Bryant dancing in our heads. My view is that the team needs a SP with great upside, which means Rodon is my top target. Even if they don’t get Rodon, there are still a number of interesting pitchers available, not the least of which is Zack Greinke. My opinion is that Billy Eppler will get something done in the pitching department. My confidence is not so high in the hitter department, at least not anything at the top of the market.

One thing that keeps occurring to me that doesn’t seem to be mentioned much elsewhere is a reunion with Michael Conforto on a make-good, one-year deal. Conforto entered his last year under team control with dreams of a nine-figure contract once he hit free agency. But then he had a very disappointing season. Combined with the lockout, which cut down significantly the number of days that free agents could bargain for new deals, it seems unlikely that Conforto will get that deal this year.

So, what will Conforto do? Will he take the best deal for the most dollars he can get now, even if that’s a 4/$72 deal with a non-contender? Or will he take fewer dollars to go to a team that will make the playoffs? Or will he sign a one-year deal so he can hit free agency after next season with no QO attached? That seems the best option to me.

While it was my strong opinion that Conforto was going to regress significantly from what he did in 2020, just about no one saw what ultimately happened in 2021 unfolding. Conforto ended up with just a 0.8 fWAR, and one that high only with a solid final two months of the season.

Would Conforto consider coming back to the Mets in a platoon role, with the chance to expand into a full-time position should things break right? My guess is that would be a very hard sell. However, if he’s looking to optimize his numbers for a better pay day, the best thing would be to limit his exposure to LHP.

While Luis Rojas and/or the Brodie Van Wagenen front office tried to make Brandon Nimmo a platoon player, the lefty batter who needed to sit versus southpaws is and was Conforto. In his career, Conforto has just a .695 OPS versus lefties, including a dismal .582 mark in 2021. He did great against them in 2020, when the hits were falling in for him in the 86-PA sample. He had a .286 BABIP versus LHP in 2021, a bit below average but not to any great degree, certainly not enough to explain his sub-Plaweckian output.

Conforto had a real nice year in 2019, when he put up a 3.9 fWAR. Imagine if he had been rested against lefties. That season he had a .926 OPS versus RHB. In 455 PA against righties, Conforto had a 142 wRC+. Those are numbers that get you paid.

If you rooted for a team where money was no object – how much would you pay for the chance to get a .926 OPS in 455 PA? That’s essentially what Kyle Schwarber did last year, as he had 471 PA and a .928 OPS. The crowdsourcing at FanGraphs thought Schwarber deserved a 4/$60 deal. If money was no object, say, if your owner was the richest in baseball – would you pay 1/$15 or 1/$20 for that production? And that look above doesn’t include defense, where Schwarber is lousy and Conforto, before last year, was more or less average.

The Mets have signed two free agent outfielders already, with Starling Marte essentially replacing Conforto’s production. That leaves a platoon with Mark Canha. Fortunately, Canha is a RHB. Unfortunately, Canha has no platoon advantage. It wouldn’t be a perfect fit. But in a typical year, Conforto is better than Canha versus RHP while Canha is better versus LHP.

It wouldn’t be the best news for Canha but if we’re being honest, no one wants to see Canha get 600 PA next year.

Some might not like the idea of reuniting with Conforto, as that would keep the Mets from gaining a draft pick they would get if he signed elsewhere this year. To me, that’s just the cost of doing business. If the choice is a guy to put up a .900+ OPS in 400-something ABs or a draft pick as low as what the Mets would get if Conforto signed elsewhere, well, that’s an easy choice. Since the Mets didn’t receive revenue sharing, and they didn’t exceed the Luxury Tax threshold last year, they would receive a draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B. So, there’s the first round, followed by Competitive Balance Round A. Then the second round and Competitive Balance Round B. And then the draft pick they would get for Conforto. So, that’s something like the 90th overall pick. Could be a solid MLB player. Could be a bust.

Another thing fans might fear is Conforto’s agent – Scott Boras. Too many people think that Boras holds some magic power over his clients, that he tells them what to do rather than advising what could happen. My opinion is that’s because he both runs his mouth and looks a little bit like a bridge troll. If he was tall, dark and handsome – you know, like Van Wagenen – he wouldn’t have such a reputation. Van Wagenen got Robinson Cano a $240 million deal yet no one considers him the devil. At least no one considers him the devil for his work as an agent. As a GM…..

Regardless of what you think, Boras has many times advised his clients to sign a one-year deal, perhaps most famously with Adrian Beltre. The star 3B was coming off a poor season with the bat. He signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox, upped his OPS+ 58 points and then got a monster contract with the Rangers. This could be the plan with Conforto, too.

Maybe the budget isn’t there for an 8-figure contract, especially if the Mets add a top-tier SP once the lockout ends. But it’s something they should at least consider, bringing back Conforto on a one-year deal to be mostly a righty masher.