Many times, I’ve wondered what percentage of “Rookie Stars” or “Future Stars” or whatever label Topps was using at the time turned out to be that way. Not many is my guess. They’re all stars on Draft Day and they’re all stars when they get their first baseball card. But reality is a cruel thing. Obviously, they can’t all be stars.
But it’s hard to blame Topps for giving Kevin Elster this tag.
The Mets’ farm system had been cranking out stars during the 1980s and Kevin Elster made the All-Star team in Double-A at age 21 and repeated the feat at Triple-A at age 22, the year before this card was produced. Elster had a cup of coffee with the Mets in 1987 and had four hits, including two doubles, giving him a .400 AVG and a .600 SLG.
And he had a clear path to a starting job, as Rafael Santana wasn’t exactly lighting the world on fire with his 69 OPS+ in 1,632 PA with the Mets. The club even cleared that minor hurdle out of the way, as the Mets traded Santana to the Yankees in December of 1987.
Unfortunately, Elster was hardly an upgrade from Santana. He had a little bit of pop but he just didn’t have the tools to be a hitter at the highest level. Sure, he hit .310 at Triple-A in ’87 but his career-high in the majors was a .252 mark for Texas in 1996.
Elster had his best year in 1989, when a good defensive season paved the way for a 2.2 fWAR. But he never reached that level again, with his next-best output coming in that ’95 season, which ended in a 1.5 fWAR. Elster left the Mets after 1992 as a free agent. He was released by five different organizations before landing in Texas.
While Elster might not have fulfilled the prophecy of a Future Star that was thrust upon him back in 1988, he did wind up playing parts of 13 seasons in the majors, which isn’t too shabby for a guy with a lifetime 83 OPS+. It might even be enough for him to make it back to Queens for Old Timer’s Day, although it’s not clear if he’ll be inside with former teammates Ron Darling and Keith Hernandez or outside with former teammate Lenny Dykstra.
Elster had a lot of promise but never quite got over the hump. It happens a lot in this game.
Elster was very smooth defensively, good hands and strong arm (if not very quick), who ended up having shoulder problems. A California kid, he might have lacked intensity.
Baseball doesn’t do a great job fixing shoulders. Knees, no problem. Shoulders are iffy.
But speaking of steroid candidates, and guys who do better after age 30: It’s 1996 (nearly prime time for ‘roids!), at age 31, he hit 24 HRS with 99 RBI. In his previous 9 seasons, Elster had only hit 49 total.
Hey, everybody’s dabbling, trying different supplements, you are aging and struggling with injuries, been cut by too many teams already, nearing the end of the good life, hell yeah, stick a needle in my butt!
I mean: I’m not trying to convict him in court, just saying that I’m suspicious and I’m not even criticizing. I get it.
Jimmy P. Great points about shoulder injuries and baseball. One of the reasons I heard (think on twitter) was that Pete Crow-Armstrong’s shoulder injury was worse than first expected and hence the trade for Baez. Also Luis Carpio who was a Met Minor League free agent until he recently signed with the Tigers, had a real bad shoulder injury that he never recovered from.
Wilmer Reyes? Knee injury early 2021 – hope he continues to come all the way back and runs like it is 2019!