Brandon Nimmo hit all season long but with two main issues. The first was the mysterious hand injury, which kept him out for two months. Then there was the power drain that occurred in the first two months after he returned. When he was activated from the IL on July 3 thru the end of August, Nimmo had a .283 AVG and a .408 OBP, which is pretty much what we’ve come to expect of him, perhaps slightly better in the AVG department. But he had just a .380 SLG in this time. That’s a .097 ISO. Since 2018, Nimmo has a .190 ISO and that includes the bad two months in 2021 as well as the time in 2019 when he tried to play thru a neck injury and didn’t hit at all. In September, Nimmo had a .243 ISO, as eight of his 19 hits went for extra-bases.
That’s something the computer models don’t know. All they see is a once-productive player have fewer games played and a lower SLG than expected. Speaking of the computer models, here’s what they forecast for Nimmo in 2022:
ATC — .262/.380/.429, 14.1 BB%, 21.2 K%
Marcel – .264/.374/.432, 13.4 BB%, 22.0 K%
RotoCh – .281/.398/.450, 15.0 BB%, 21.7 K%
Steamer – .260/.377/.427, 14.3 BB%, 20.9 K%
THE BAT – .265/.382/.427, 14.0 BB%, 20.6 K%
ZiPS — .260/.377/.427, 14.3 BB%, 22.0 K%
The RotoChamp forecasts are nearly always the most-optimistic ones of the bunch. If we remove that one and concentrate on the ones from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, they see a player who’s going to put up an AVG between .260 and .265 for the season. The more playing time in the majors a hitter has, the tighter the computer models forecasts become. But, having said that, this AVG forecast is surprising. Especially since Nimmo hit .292 last year and .280 the season before.
And while RotoChamp might be optimistic on production, it is downright pessimistic on playing time. RC forecasts Nimmo getting just 278 ABs in 2022. There’s a pretty wide difference in PA among the other systems, with ZiPS forecasting 412 and Steamer projecting 619. Both ATC and THE BAT have him with 526.
All six forecasts have him with an OBP between .374 and .398 but if we remove RC again, we have a difference almost as small as with his AVG, this time between .374 and .382 for the high. And the same pattern exists with his SLG, too, with a .427-.432 spread with the FG/B-R models and a .450 from RC.
It’s fairly remarkable how close these projection systems are on production yet different so wildly on playing time. In all of the years doing Mets projections, no other player has had this combination. Usually, you see the giant differences in playing time projected in players just getting started in the majors, not with one having 1,695 PA in MLB under their belt.
As you probably have already guessed, my biggest issue is with the SLG that the computer models are expecting from Nimmo. It seems highly unlikely to me that Nimmo will top 500 PA – like four of the six systems project – and we’ll see an ISO around .170 or so. It makes sense in that Nimmo has a .179 lifetime ISO. But the difference in his output while healthy versus when he’s dealing with injuries is striking. The combination of reasonable health and below-average ISO is one that makes me tilt my head.
In his two-injury marred seasons, Nimmo had 254 and 386 PA. In fact, he’s only topped 500 PA in a season once, which makes the playing time forecasts from the computer models really strange.
My totally biased forecast for Nimmo is: .275/.405/.485, 15.0 BB%, 25.0 K% in 625 PA.
I’ll take the over:
.292/.408/.505
I see a few less walks and jumping on meaty fastballs from pitchers thinking he will be passive.
.285/.395/.475
.275/.385/.440 = OPS of .825
The flaw w/ OPS, as we know, is it treats OBP and SLG as equals, whereas the analytics folks give see it as — and this varies from year to year, based on runs created (I think) — roughly 1.6 : 1.0.
I might not have expressed that well.
Meaning that a .275/.400/.400 is, in theory, worth more offensively than .275/.350/.450.
Nimmo is better than his raw OPS.
That said: I would like to see more pop out of his bat.
The man is playing for a very big contract.
I really like him. This is a guy who never gives away an AB, compared to Pete, who gives away so many. I won’t guess about Nimmo’s health, though I think he is getting hit with fewer pitches these days. Playing LF, and DH “rest” days, should help.
I so want to see what he can do over a full healthy season. Let’s say this is a dream year and Nimmo gets 550 ABs
285/.425/.455, 17.5 BB%, 21.0 K% in 550 PA. And what the heck – 23 SBs
All Star Reserve
Plays more CF than LF
.264/.396/.453 15.45 BB% 23.45 K%
If he is relatively healthy then he is ready to have a very good year. He is a consistent performer but the injuries have put him on the IL frequently which has lost him some of his value, for himself as well as the team. His attitude and hustle makes him a personal favorite of mine.
In my lineup, he hits #2 behind Marte.
So fewer walks, very few SBs (just not his game- way too injury prone).
Hopefully plays LF the most… settles in there.
I see him playing 120 games (injuries). 450 PA
More fastballs to hit because of Marte’s threat to steal.
.280/.380/.420 18 HR / 60RBI
A good season, (not a great season), and a decent payday as a result.
.275/.401/.440, 450 PA
I hope to see more PA as I’m a believer, but his history suggests a few weeks on the IL.
I see Nimmo staying healthy, hitting behind Marte and having a career year to spark the top of the Mets lineup.
I thought Nimmo improved dramatically at the plate last year. Hitting number two, taking loads of pitches to allow Marte to swipe a bag, and seeing more fastballs should make him ascend even further. The key, obviously, is for him to stay healthy.
If he has a decently healthy year, I can’t see how he could not have a very strong year. Might even be the best number two hitter in the game. Raise his contact numbers, keep his on base respectable, and see a great rise in overall productivity. If he improves at all, he will be very happy with his contract options.
The Mets should see a dramatic rise in their offense, coming off the horrendous down season. Having Marte at the top to set the table should lead to more first inning runs… (no matter how pessimistic you wish to come off), and good things come from that.