Mets 2022 projections: Eduardo Escobar

In his last two full seasons, Eduardo Escobar hit a combined 63 HR. If you had any doubt as to the main reason the Mets signed him, it was to deliver power. But that’s not all Escobar brings to the table. He can play anywhere in the infield and while we hope not to see him at SS, it’s certainly possible he could play a handful of games at 2B this year. The other thing is that Escobar is supposed to be a team leader in the clubhouse. The SNY announcers said that Escobar went to minor league camp and addressed the guys there, saying he was never considered a top prospect but through hard work, he’s stayed in the majors for 11 years and just signed a multi-year contract.

The HR he’s hit recently are great. But Escobar did have the advantage of playing his home games in Chase Field, one of the best hitting parks in the majors. However, Escobar has done just fine away from Arizona in 2019 and 2021, as 30 of his 63 HR came in road parks. He doesn’t look like a power hitter, B-R lists him at 5’10, but you can’t argue with the results. Let’s see what the projection systems expect from Escobar in 2022:

ATC — .243/.303/.436, 7.7 BB%, 20.4 K%
Marcel – .246/.306/.446, 7.7 BB%, 20.6 K%47
RotoCh – .247/.301/.445, 7.1 BB%, 18.9 K%
Steamer – .241/.302/.432, 7.6 BB%, 20.7 K%
THE BAT – .244/.308/.440, 8.0 BB%, 21.3 K%
ZiPS — .247/.306/.465, 7.7 BB%, 22.0 K%

After some mild disagreements among the projection systems with some veteran players, all six models are in lock-step with Escobar. His AVG will likely be nothing to write home about and his OBP is a tick worse than that. But all see him delivering an ISO of .190 or greater, with ZiPS forecasting a .218 mark in the category. For a comparison, Kris Bryant had a .216 ISO last year.

Of course, when so much of your value is tied up in power, it’s difficult not to be worried how Citi Field – which no one considers a great hitter’s park – will affect Escobar. Lifetime, he has a .111/.135/.194 line in 37 PA in his new home park. It’s an incredibly small sample. It’s also an absolutely terrible level of production. It’s not too difficult to imagine Escobar getting off to a poor start and becoming a bit freaked out about hitting in Citi Field.

On top of that, J.D. Davis has a lifetime .895 OPS at Citi Field in 435 PA.

Few people want to see Davis in the game with a fielder’s glove. But no one wants to see a starter with sub-Plaweckian offense, either. Everything is fine if Escobar delivers the power. ZiPS projected him to hit 27 HR in 582 PA. Yes, please. The Mets need a power bat and will live with the lousy OBP if Escobar produces the extra-base hits like he has here recently. But it’s hard to imagine the Mets being quite so patient if Escobar doesn’t smash the ball when he makes contact. My totally biased projection for Escobar in 2022:

.258/.302/.415, 5.7 BB%, 19.6 K%