Mets 2022 projections: Dominic Smith

The Mets seemingly have three choices for their primary designated hitter – Robinson Cano, J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith. Originally, my thought was that Davis would get the majority of time at the new NL position. But news came out that Smith played through an injury last year and when we saw him in Spring Training, he just looked … different. Maybe he lost weight or maybe he was just happier. In 32 PA, Smith posted a .423/.531/.846 line and that doesn’t even count the two homers he hit off Max Scherzer in an intrasquad game. In Grapefruit League play, six of his 11 hits went for extra-bases. After the power outage he experienced in 2021, it was good to see Smith putting a charge in the ball again. And it makes me think he’ll get a lot of playing time, whether that be at DH or 1B or LF.

Of course, the computer models don’t know that Smith was hurt last year and they don’t care about how he performed in Florida, either. All they know is that in the most PA he’s had in the majors, he was terrible last season. Here’s how they see Smith performing in 2022:

ATC — .259/.323/.444, 7.4 BB%, 22.5 K%
Marcel – .261/.326/.430, 7.6 BB%, 22.6 K%
RotoCh – .258/.318/.419, 7.0 BB%, 23.5 K%
Steamer – .253/.319/.434, 7.5 BB%, 22.7 K%
THE BAT – .254/.320/.417, 7.7 BB%, 22.3 K%
ZiPS — .255/.312/.410, 6.5 BB%, 23.4 K%

Those projections are pretty much what we would expect. The big difference is playing time. The four systems on FanGraphs have him between 400-465 PA, while Marcel sees him grabbing the most with 500 and RC has him with the fewest with just 383. ZiPS has Smith with 465 and the next highest has 423 PA. Essentially, the projection systems think Smith will get the most playing time among the three players listed at the top of this article; they just don’t believe he’ll be all that good.

And that’s a reasonable opinion, whether from a non-biased computer model or a passionate fan.

Smith has been really good in two partial seasons that combined together come up short of 400 PA. And he was lousy in 493 PA last year. On one hand, it’s a leap of faith to believe that last year can be explained all by the injury. At the same time, it’s hard to come to grips with the fact that a guy who had a lifetime .236 ISO in 728 PA before 2021 would turn in a .119 ISO as a 26 year old. No one should have expected him to produce the elevated BABIPs that he did in 2019 (.320) and 2020 (.368) but they shouldn’t have expected Smith to put up an ISO that would be at home on the stat page of a backup middle infielder, either.

So, where’s the middle ground? What would Smith look like with a normal BABIP and a normal (for him) ISO? In 2021 he hit .244 with a .298 BABIP. Let’s say that’s his “normal” AVG. If we add his 2017-2020 ISO of .236 to his .244 AVG – you get a .480 SLG. You’re certainly not going to get that type of power from Cano and it’s far from a sure thing you would get it from Davis, either. The only players with significant playing time for the 2021 Mets to have a higher SLG than that were Javier Baez (.515) and Pete Alonso (.519) and while no one will consider last year’s Mets to be an offensive juggernaut, a .480 SLG last year would have been the 51st-best mark in the majors among qualified hitters.

Of course, that’s with a normal BABIP for the league. What’s normal for the league isn’t necessarily normal for an individual. With relatively few PA in the majors, it’s not certain what Smith’s true talent level is in the category. We’re 100% sure it’s not the .368 he put up in 2020. We’re not sure if it’s the .298 he put up last year. It’s a very good chance it’s in that neighborhood. But we can’t dismiss the idea it might be closer to the .320 mark he put up in 2019. You probably wouldn’t want to bet on it. But it’s a non-zero chance, possibly a low double-digit one, too.

If Smith last year hit well, you’d combine it with what he did in 2019-20 and conclude that he was an up-and-coming star in the league. But because he was lousy, no one can say for sure what he is. Do you trust the small-sample-size success of 396 PA or do you trust the small-sample lousiness of 493 PA while playing thru a labrum injury? Your answer to that question probably indicates your outlook on the Mets, if not life in general.

My totally biased forecast for Smith:

.275/.340/.515, 7.6 BB%, 23.0 K%

*****

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