Each year with the predictions column I start by going back to the previous year’s piece. The goal is to get more than 50 percent right, while not making boring predictions. Not once in all of the years of doing this have more turned out right than wrong. Out of last year’s batch, only four were right, although one was pretty close, as the forecast was a winning record against the Braves and they went 9-10 against them.
But you can’t be afraid to be wrong. No one wants to read a bunch of predictions like “the Mets will have a guy come down with a season-ending injury.” So here are a group of predictions that will range from head tilting to eyebrow-raising to outright aggressive. But these are all things I believe will happen, not ones made simply to be controversial. So, here’s the 2022 list:
1. Brandon Nimmo – neck injury and all – finishes with more PA than Starling Marte.
2. Jeff McNeil will slug 100 points higher than last year’s .360 mark.
3. Francisco Lindor will have a hot streak – minimum 50 PA – better than anything he had last season. In September, Lindor had a stretch with a 1.049 OPS. He’ll have one of at least 1.200 this year.
4. James McCann will double last year’s output of 10 HR.
5. After hitting 52% of his HR in his home park the past two years, Eduardo Escobar will hit under 40% of his homers this season at Citi Field.
6. Mark Canha had 625 PA last year. In 2022, he’ll have fewer than 500.
7. Pete Alonso finishes with a sub-3.5 fWAR.
8. When he last played for the Mets, Robinson Cano had a .228 ISO. He’ll have less than half that mark this year.
9. Taijuan Walker does not finish the year in the rotation.
10. While the projection systems on FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference have Max Scherzer with an ERA of 3.08 or greater, he’ll turn in his seventh-straight full season with an ERA in the twos.
11. Chris Bassitt is the pitcher the offense shows up for and it helps him to 15 Wins.
12. Jacob deGrom tops last year’s 15 starts.
13. After a 2.03 HR/9 in 2019 and a 2.01 rate in 2021, Carlos Carrasco turns in a sub 1.5 HR/9 in 2022.
14. The Mets used 19 different starters in 2021. This year will be a dozen or fewer.
15. Last year, the Mets scored 636 runs. This year they’ll score at least 750.
*****
Seemingly, each year someone responds that these don’t seem that unlikely, or agree with many of my picks. Just remember that this has been an annual column here since 2010 and not once have more been right than wrong.
1. Tylor Megill – will make at least 20 starts
2. Mark Vientos – will be called up before mid-year and hit at least 15 HR
3. Starling Marte – will steal 40 bases or more
4. Dom Smith – will hit 25 HR or more
5. Max Scherzer – will pitch a no-hitter
6. Jacob deGrom – will also pitch a no-hitter
7. Edwin Diaz – will save at least 40 games, far surpassing his previous Mets totals
8. Chris Bassitt – will pitch at least 175 innings (his all-time high)
9. Brandon Nimmo & Jeff McNeil – will have at least 30 HBP between them
10. Eduardo Escobar, Max Scherzer & Pete Alonso – will all be in the top 15 in vote getters for MVP
11. Carlos Carrasco – will pitch the entire year
12. Buck Showalter – will not be criticized by most of us the entire year for his managerial decisions
13. “Cohen Tax” – the Mets will stay under its threshold
14. Khalil Lee, Nick Plummer & Carlos Cortes – will all have game-winning hits
15. Max Scherzer – will win the Cy Young Award
16. The Mets – will win the NLCS
17. Mark Canha – will hit at least 20 HR
18. Patrick Mazeika – will dribble-in a run again this year
19. Mets Infield – the four starters will total 2.0 dWAR
20. Seith Lugo – will have an ERA+ of 140 or better
and that laundry list only gets the NLCS?
Surely thats a 116 win team ans WS winner?
Hey, I’m an optimist!
Really “only” 93 wins.
My favorite post of the year. I just went back and looked at my predictions from last year. I nailed Seth Lugo with an ERA over 3. And I had DeGrom with a sub 2.20 ERA (I also had him winning 20, striking out 280, and winning his 3rd Cy Young). I missed bigly on my other 10 predictions.
1. Brandon Nimmo will play in 140+ games and be the starting CF in the all star game
2. Pete Alonso will hit 54 homeruns breaking his own Mets record by hitting 3 in the final game of the year.
3. Jacob DeGrom will come back to pitch in early June. He will strikeout the first 6 batters he faces, then exit the game with an injury and will not pitch the remainder of the season.
4. Max Scherzer will pitch to a sub 2 ERA the first half of the season and start the all star game. He will miss significant time in the 2nd half of the season, but come back in time to pitch in the wild card series and deliver the Mets to the NLCS where they will lose in 5 games to the Dodgers.
5. The offense will score 800 runs and lead the NL in run differential.
6. The mets starting pitching will battle, but it will be the bullpen that saves the season with a collective ERA under 2.75 leading to a record in 1-run ballgames of 37-4.
7. The mets will not a lose a single game all year after leading going into the final inning.
8. Robinson Cano will be off the team by June 1
9. Jeff McNeil will win the batting title
10. Lindor will win the gold glove
11. Nido will start more games than McCann
12. Dom Smith will be traded at the all star break for Luis Castillo
13. The Mets will finish 90-72 as the 2nd wildcard. They’ll beat the Phillies (3rd wild card) 2 games to none in the first round.
14. DeGrom will opt out and the Mets will not resign him.
My prediction is that the over-under is 87.5 for total wins.
Total win prediction = 87
Sadly, I agreed with you Chris.
1. yes because Nimmo the leader of batter
2. No, McNeil will be just shy of it at 458
3. Yes Lindor will be more comfortable
4. No, McCann has never hit 20 homers in a season
5. No, Escobar will hit 44% homers in Citi Field
6. No, Canha will get 500 PA
7. No, Alonso will be 4.0+ WAR
8. No, Cano will be better than .114 ISO
9. No, at least not for incompetence by Walker
10. Yes, Scherzer is an elite pitcher
11. No, Bassett never won more than 12 games in a season
12. Yes, with deGrom my fingers are crossed
13. No, Carrasco will have a 1.7% HR/9
14. Yes, they’ll use less than a dozen starters ( or they’re going to have a problem!)
15. Yes, the offense is more diverse this year. 750+ runs this year.