The Mets acquired Trevor Williams at the trade deadline in 2021 but he was the throw-in, not the main acquisition in the deal, the one that sent Javier Baez to the Mets. After they acquired him, the Mets sent him to the minors, which no doubt didn’t sit well with the veteran who had spent the majority of the previous four years in the majors. But his stay in Syracuse wasn’t long. Williams appeared in 10 games for the Mets, making three starts.
One could certainly argue that Williams should have made more starts for the Mets last year. But it was hard to make the case he should have opened this year in the rotation, as the Mets imported Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer. But Williams did make the Opening Day roster as a long reliever and with injuries to two more starting pitchers, he found himself in the rotation. Williams has been in the majors all season. At least up until now.
The Mets have four pitchers on the injured list who are all expected back in the next six weeks or so. The first of those is Tylor Megill, who’s set to return this weekend. Megill made a positive impression last year and was very good this season until his final start before the IL. He’s likely going back into the rotation and the question is if he’ll be bumping David Peterson or Williams.
Peterson is a homegrown product, a first-round draft pick. He’s also the only lefty in the rotation. But if you only consider results, Peterson walks too many guys and hasn’t given the club consistent innings. On top of that, his last two outings have been his weakest appearances of the year, as he’s allowed 8 R in his last 8.1 IP.
Meanwhile, Williams in his last seven games, including four starts, has a 2.79 ERA with a 1.000 WHIP and 27 Ks in 29 IP. He has the same issue as Peterson, not going deep into games. But, as opposed to Peterson, Williams has allowed just 2 ER in 10 IP over his past two games. Additionally, he threw 86 pitches in his last start. Williams is certainly stretched out by now – he just needs to be more efficient in order to go longer.
It’s Williams’ spot in the rotation on Friday and he’s currently listed as the team’s starter on ESPN’s upcoming schedule page. That doesn’t mean he’s going to get the start. But if he does, it might be his last chance to impress the brass in that role. A good start where he gives at least six innings would certainly bolster his case to remain in the rotation.
And it’s not like Williams has no history of pitching well in the majors as a starter. He was a 14-game winner in 2018 and the 2017-19 seasons, he had a 101 ERA+ in 466.2 IP over 88 games, including 82 starts.
Williams is not overpowering but he gets good results with both his two and four-seamer. He tops out at 92-93 but it plays better than that. He’s thrown more changeups since coming over to the Mets but at best it’s an average pitch. Williams also has a slider and a curve but the results with both of those off-speed pitches have been middling, at best. Is that enough to succeed in 2022? It has been since May for Williams.
So far this year, he’s got a normal BABIP (.303) and he’s giving up homers at essentially a league-average rate, as he has a 3.66 FIP and a 3.65 xFIP, which normalizes HR rate. It’s a contrast to Peterson, who has a 3.89 FIP and a 4.36 xFIP. These ERA estimators view Williams as the better pitcher so far this season.
But you know what? The estimators view Williams as better than both Bassitt and Taijuan Walker, too. Of course, those pitchers have more starts and more innings than Williams, so it’s very possible that we’re looking at a small-sample fluke with what Williams has done so far.
My hope is that Williams remains in the rotation when Megill returns. And then he can get a handful more starts to show if his early results are a fluke or not. And we can say the same thing for the recent results of Bassitt and Walker. In his last five games, Bassitt has allowed 22 ER in 26 IP, while Walker has allowed 17 ER in 39.2 IP in his last seven games. Are those rough patches or what we should expect from those two pitchers going forward?
If there are five more starts for each pitcher before Jacob deGrom and/or Max Scherzer return, and they all continue their current trajectory, would that be enough of a sample size to make a controversial decision – keeping Williams in the rotation once everyone’s healthy?
Before the season started, if you asked any fan who was the best starter among Bassitt, Walker and Williams – my guess is no one would have answered Williams. But it’s not like Walker has a great track record of success over 30 games in a year and Bassitt has yet to pitch 158 innings in a season, either.
Just to be clear, it’s unlikely that all of the planets align for Williams to remain in the rotation when the second half of the season rolls around. Shoot, he may not be in the rotation by the end of the week. But Bassitt and Walker to varying degrees have given us enough reasons to be concerned that we shouldn’t slam the door shut on the possibility that Williams is one of the club’s five-best starters once everyone is healthy.
Even if Williams is not in the top five starters, he certainly belongs among the top 5 bullpen options. This hackneyed notion of using him in “long relief,” at expense of using him to get three or six outs is tiresome and short-sighted. I mean, if Lugo is what he is, Williams can be that too.
It seems to me that either Williams or Peterson has to remain as the sixth starter (even though Williams deserves better), and the other guy has to retool for the bullpen. Why look outside the organization for bullpen help when we have darn good prospects sitting in the dugout?
I have far more confidence in Williams than in Peterson, but each has his strengths. I can write the story today how “The Mets Bullpen Troubles Were Solved the Day They Started Using Williams to Greater Effect.”
Right now, Williams is the better pitcher than Peterson. He should remain in the rotation and Peterson should go back to Syracuse and remained stretched out in case there is another injury to a starting pitcher . Peterson should not assume the roll of long reliever. Peterson has 3 remaining options whereas Williams has zero. Under no circumstances should Williams get optioned because they certainly lose him to waiver.
Williams has zero options, but also zero years remaining of control. Since he will be a free agent this summer, the question is do you re-sign him? Peterson usually gets through a lineup once without problems, and sometimes he handles it twice, but he almost always falls apart due to… w a l k s! He either doesn’t have confidence to keep challenging, or his stuff is crap and he knows it. I’ll take the latter. Make him a reliever and give him Shreve’s job. At least he’s better than him.
The Mets’ starting pitching is very much up in the air next year.
JDG – likely to opt out
Bassitt – mutual option
Carrasco – club option they’re likely to pick up
Walker – player option he’s likely to decline
Here in June, and for the remainder of the season, I don’t believe you make any pitching decisions based on next year. Put every pitcher in the role where they’ll help you the most right now. Then, with 3+ months of the regular season, and hopefully playoffs, there will be more information on which pitchers to re-sign and for what roles.
Well, you don’t make any decisions for next year, but you keep next year in mind. Hence:
1. Max
2. ?
3. Bassitt
4. Carrasco
5. Megill
6. ?
7. ?
8. Peterson
Williams at #7 is acceptable, as is Lucchesi. Both are free agents.
I’m certainly not writing Bassitt’s name in ink for 2023. He’ll be in his age-34 season and will cost $19 million at a minimum. Williams will be in his age-31 season and cost about half that much, maybe even fewer dollars than that. Bassitt’s going to have to turn things around from where he’s been the last five starts, when he has a 7.62 ERA. That’s not to say that he can’t. Or that he won’t. It’s just that he may not be one of the team’s best five starters right now, much less re-signing him for next year at serious money.