If you go to Dominic Smith’s main page at either Baseball-Reference or FanGraphs you don’t see any stats from Triple-A this year. At first, it seemed like maybe he was taking the maximum number of days a veteran is allowed to report, something you would expect a guy sulking about his demotion to do. But, if you instead look at the Syracuse team page at B-R, you see he’s appeared in six games and has a .280/.308/.440 line. Certainly nothing to write home about production wise but it’s 26 PA and right now that’s what Smith needs to do – get as many PA as possible.
At first glance, it might have been surprising that the Mets called up Khalil Lee instead of Smith when an opening came up. But had they done that, Smith would have found himself back in the same spot as before, maybe playing every other day at best. And what would they do when Pete Alonso and Starling Marte returned? Well, they would have sent him back to Triple-A, essentially accomplishing nothing.
Meanwhile, who cares if Lee sits on the MLB bench for a week, getting only two or three trips to the plate, before being sent down? Hopefully, everyone’s given up the ghost that he’s going to be a regular in the majors. That elevated BABIP and K% attack the likelihood of major league success in two directions. First, he’s not going to have that BABIP in any meaningful MLB sample. And if minor league pitchers can strike him out at roughly 30%, what are MLB pitchers going to do to him? Sure, there are exceptions to that rule – Joey Gallo jumps immediately to mind. But Lee wasn’t clubbing 23 HR in 374 PA in the minors, either, like Gallo did back in 2015. And for good measure, Gallo added 6 HR in 123 PA in the majors that season, too. Lee’s MLB line to date is .053/.053/.105, with a double in 19 PA.
Circling back to Smith: What do the Mets do with him now?
It’s nice that he’s gotten consistent ABs in six games. He needs to at least double that amount before any preliminary decisions can be made. And we’ll need to know what progress he’s making laying off high pitches. Plus, it would be good to see him hitting the ball with more authority than a .160 ISO. It may be nothing more than wishful thinking at this point that Smith can find something close to his 2019-20 form. But however slim that chance is, it has to be 100X more likely than Lee becoming worthwhile.
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The earliest the Mets should be thinking about bringing Smith back is June 19. That’s the date that MLB teams need to cut to 13 pitchers. The Mets had 14 pitchers before bringing Lee up to give bench depth with the two regulars banged up. They sent out Adonis Medina in that transaction. It’s possible they flip that move in the next day or so. But it would have to be a different reliever, as Medina needs to stay down for 15 days unless another injury occurs.
One of many possible scenarios is that they send Lee down and promote Jake Reed, who has already pitched in the majors this year. Then, when the pitcher limit occurs, they can see where Smith is at in his approach. If he does get the call on the 19th, it won’t be too dissimilar to what the club did with Lee earlier this season. Lee was struggling at Triple-A and they sent him to A-ball for eight games before bringing him back to Syracuse. After his brief demotion, Lee hit .333/.429/.708 in 56 PA in Triple-A before getting the call to the majors.
Another scenario is that MLB pushes back the deadline to cut to 13 pitchers, or do away with that stipulation completely in 2022. They’ve already pushed it back so it wouldn’t be the slightest bit of a surprise if another announcement of this type comes down the pike.
The artificial MLB deadline should give Smith some type of incentive to produce. But even if that goes away, he’s still the one in control, ultimately, of how long he remains in Syracuse. He just needs to hit enough to force the Mets’ hand. And a .778 OPS isn’t going to be enough to get it done. And if Smith isn’t the choice to be on the roster, it’s likely it will be Lee, instead.
Dom Smith has gotten the benefit of a lot of favorable, benevolent “press”. When he was good, he was highly-touted and treated like a bonafide ML slugger, even though his accomplishments were over a fairly small sample size. In 2019 he got off to a fast start and was dropping precipitously when he was hurt and returned for one eventful AB to end the season. And of course 2020 season was really only 40% of a full season, so those impressive stats are to be taken with some salt as well.
And when he was bad, he was given a rather soft pedal… people wondering when he would come around and return to his real self. I’m here to say that there is no Dom Smith real self. We don’t know what it is.
The two partial seasons of success do not an identity make. His horrid 2021 season of a year ago is apparently tainted, but would the team perhaps not been better off benching him to heal his injury and let someone else hit .220 with no power, but who might have done better?
In other words, let’s stop expecting more from Dom Smith. He just may be an under-performing lefty hitter who teased us with productivity but who rarely shows much consistently-productive hitting. If some other team values his latent abilities, by all means take advantage and get back a player or two who fits into the team’s actual needs. Dom does not.
If Dom blossoms and returns some dividends to another team, good for him. But constantly bending over backwards waiting for a guy to fill an unrealistic expectation gets us nowhere, and possibly retards the growth of some other options the team can explore.
You have a very curious definition of “bending over backwards.”
Nice work, Brian. Very timely. I concur with Wobbit’s points too. I think that Dom did himself a big favor by being that charismatic and gung-ho teammate that everyone loves. I remember his on-field celebrations while he was on his little cart, rehabilitating his leg. I don’t mean to imply that he was contrived; I believe he was sincere. But that only goes so far. He just doesn’t have a position on this team as long as Alonso is here.
Is Lee projecting to be a Gallo but with less power? As one who hates the three-outcome hitter and who believes Gallo is one of the most overrated players in the past decade, there is nothing positive about that at all. Maybe he should be packaged in a trade before more MLB time exposes him for what he is.
I felt that McNeil should have been traded last year and obviously I was completely wrong about that. But now, I think Smith, Lee, and Davis should all be on the block. I don’t know what value could be had for them, but surely some team needs a 1B and is willing to give Smith a shot. Ditto on Davis as a DH somewhere. With Plummer, Mangum, Vientos, Baty, and of course Alvarez coming along, these three are expendable. The big question is what can be had in return, IMHO.
Anything short of a sweep by the Angels makes for an acceptable roadtrip. 4 of 5 wins out of this 10 game stretch is a Pyrrhic victory.
I think the comp is Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Although, if you give him 1/4 of the HR output of Gallo, it’s probably the same thing.
Smith in his first two seasons of 332 PA he had a .666 0PS. His next two seasons OF 396 PA he had a .937 OPS. He most recent seasons of 594 PA he had a .605 OPS. His role on the 2022 Mets was to primarily be a DH and a backup first baseman. He failed miserably and deservingly was sent down to the minors.
Plummer is more valuable to the major league team right now. He sometimes can play the outfield or DH. JD should get the majority of the at bats at DH and with a LHP, he can play 1B and Alonso can DH. Plummer deserves a chance.
Smith’s primary competition for a roster spot is Plummer . Smith has to be more productive than Plummer to get his roster spot back.
If the rule allows 14 pitchers then the Mets should have 14 pitchers. Lee is redundant to Plummer. If it is 13 pitchers then Vientos , a RHB, should be promoted not Lee. Right now Vientos is on the IL.
Smith has potential but so does Plummer and Vientos too. They deserve a chance too. Smith can only blame himself for his predicament.
Interesting thought that the primary competition is Plummer.
Assuming everyone was healthy – and ignoring DH – the bench would be Nido, Davis, Guillorme, Jankowski and X. Is Plummer more valuable than Smith? Normally, you’d prefer the OF for positional balance. But all four OF can play every position and McNeil can play either corner. Does Dom being a better backup 1B than Davis or Canha provide more value than a 5th OF? I’d say yes but not a big difference. It all comes down to who provides more value with the bat. Plummer had a great two days but I think the jury is still very much out on what kind of a hitter he’d be.
I still think the question the Mets will have to answer is if they want Jankowski as a backup OF when he’s healthy. To me, that’s where Plummer’s real battle to stay on the roster will be. Then we’ll have the veteran Jankowski with speed and defense versus the rookie Plummer with (a potential) AVG and power advantage.
That not fair Brian….you can’t ignore the DH….it is a rule.
JD is the primary DH. He is also a disappointment. He has been hitting better recently but he has only an OPS of .721 for June. That is why Vientos should get a chance. If JD doesn’t get hot soon then maybe the Mets should get a stronger bat for DH at the trading deadline and JD would be the RHB for the bench .
Counting JD as the DH just makes the case for carrying Dom over Plummer stronger. The Mets aren’t calling up Vientos in a pennant race to sit on the bench.
Smith isn’t an outfielder to Showalter, so when Marte got hurt, he wanted an outfielder. Plummer has cooled off, but unless there is an injury to Alonso or Davis, Smith will stay on ice.
Have to disagree with Wobbit on the small samples. Yes, they we small but he did that and the eye test tells me he can hit. I understand the problem, but allowing Smith to be the next David Ortiz shouldn’t happen. I’m not saying Hall of Famer, I’m just saying good hitter that was given up on, regrettably. Smith is right when he says that he is 26 years old stuck in the same role he had when he was 23. His career clock is running and he is watching the train go by. He is right and I can’t blame him. However, outside of an injury, I don’t know what can happen and Vientos and Baty are coming right behind him…
Smith’s days on the Mets appear to be numbered as he is not as strong an OF fill in as some others and clearly he is blocked at 1B. I expected the worse from Alonso’s HBP and thought Smith would be on the next flight out west. Thankfully Pete was back in the lineup. Smith should be tearing up AAA and forcing his way back on to the team. That is his best ticket out of NY to be the starting 1B somewhere. Another 6 weeks till the deadline, and I still hope the Mets make a splash with players to throw them over the top like what they did in 2015. Can you imagine if they pull off a game changer like Cepesdes was? Fortunately they are a much better team right through their bench then they were back then but it is hard to imagine winning it all without Jake and Max. I’d look for one more front line starter and one reliever at the deadline. Lastly, this crap with dictating the number of pitchers on the roster is garbage. Just give a roster limit and let the teams decide what to carry.