We don’t really need to completely rehash the trade that brought Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano to the Mets before the 2019 season, though suffice it to say it didn’t start out well from the Mets’ perspective. Cano’s tenure was a mixed bag of up-and-down performances and a PED suspension that culminated in the team ultimately releasing him earlier this season. He was always seemingly meant to be a gamble on a short-term injection of “in the twilight of his career” talent for a team looking to get over the hump, but it unsurprisingly didn’t work out as planned.
Diaz, on the other hand, was clearly the prize of the trade as an elite closer with years of control. It’s only slightly hyperbolic to state that his first season in the orange and blue was a complete disaster, but those with misgivings about the trade saw their worst fears realized as he didn’t come close to resembling the pitcher he was with Seattle.
Fast forward (or rewind, as it were) to the shortened season in 2020, and we start to see the reemergence of the elite version of Diaz that Brodie Van Wagenen thought he was acquiring in exchange for bits of the Mets’ future. He finished in the top ten of reliever fWAR in 2020 and did the same in 2021 as well, though you would be forgiven for not noticing that tidbit due to the team as a whole collapsing in on itself during those seasons.
He’s currently second in reliever fWAR for 2022 at 1.7, and doing it by striking batters out at an absurd K% rate of 51.7%. The only seasons in which he ever came close to that was during the shortened (and thus small sample) 2020 and in his most dominant year in Seattle during the 2018 season. That 2018 campaign is important for two reasons. It’s the last season he pitched for Seattle before the Mets acquired him, and it’s the benchmark season (3.5 fWAR, 57 saves) against which his future performance will continually be judged.
In the spirit of the aforementioned 2018 comparison, and despite his impressive performance this year, he’s not quite on pace to match that magical season. Notably, he’s giving up home runs at a higher rate and walking more batters than he did during his last year as a Mariner. His .407 BABIP is incredibly inflated as well, which points to some bad luck but has to be taken with a huge grain of salt for a reliever with just over half a season of data.
Perhaps the biggest difference between 2018 and 2022 so far has been the PitchValue ratings of his fastball and slider. While his fastball is a few ticks faster this year than in 2018 (99mph vs 97.5mph), its Runs Above Average Per 100 Pitches (or wFB/C) in 2022 (-0.13) is significantly worse than in 2018 (1.89). In contrast, his 2022 slider has been better with a wSL/C of 3.36 versus 2.16 in 2018. That’s certainly nitpicking considering Diaz’s current performance, though.
Fair or not, Diaz will forever be known as the key piece of one of the most ill-advised trades in franchise history. That speaks more to the foibles of the previous front office than it does of Diaz’s performance, though. In fact, Diaz has quietly reestablished himself as one of the most dominant relievers in baseball (if a 2022 All-Star selection can be considered “quiet”), which is a far cry from his inauspicious Big Apple debut.
Diaz is a free agent at the conclusion of the 2022 season, and it absolutely behooves the Mets to lock up such a dominant closer in the prime of his career. That’s not something that could have been said as the team whimpered through the end of the 2019 season, which speaks to the remarkable turnaround he’s managed since then.
Diaz has been great this year and in addition to what you mentioned in the article is that both his FIP and xFIP are better than his ERA.
The problem is that we’re dealing with small samples. We could say the same thing to help explain his poor 2019. And it’s true with every reliever. Aaron Loup has a 4.36 ERA and a 1.384 WHIP after being untouchable last year.
So, knowing how fickle relievers are – and that a closer won’t exceed 75 IP – how much do you pay him? And how much do you pay Nimmo? And how much do you pay Bassitt and Walker? And how far do you go on deGrom after he opts out?
We don’t have to answer any of those questions today. And everything will depend on how far they go in the playoffs. And while I hope he’s this dominant for the Mets in the future, it’s not an automatic from me that the club has to re-sign Diaz.
Before the start of the 2022 season, they could have replaced Diaz for another premium closer in 2023 and I wouldn’t have minded it. Diaz was good but not elite. Now he is elite. The free agent class consists of four 35 years old closers and Diaz will be 29. Chapman, Jansen, Kimbrel and Briiton all make $14M – $18m. Diaz wants to be a Met, which is a plus. The Mets don’t have a replacement reliever to consistently close and take his place on their roster. Relievers can be inconsistent from year to year. That said, sign him for 5/ $80-90M, he is worth it.