The return of Jacob deGrom, the arrival of Vogelbach and Marte’s hot stretch

After being sidelined for more than a year, Jacob deGrom is scheduled to return to the mound Tuesday against the Nationals. Could he use another rehab start? Yeah, probably. He missed one during the All-Star break and tried to make up for it with a simulated start. His next, and final, rehab start wasn’t all roses, as he gave up two homers. But he righted the shop and threw the pitches to keep him on targe for an MLB start.

There’s a lot of hope and a lot of trepidation about deGrom’s return. The hope is that he can return to 95% of the pitcher he was previously, one with a lifetime 2.50 ERA and a 1.011 WHIP. Much like thinking before this season started that Max Scherzer couldn’t pitch like he did for the Dodgers but there was still room for him to be a great pitcher, the idea that deGrom could be a pitcher with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.175 WHP would be an exciting addition to an already excellent staff.

The trepidation is that deGrom is now some huge injury risk. All pitchers are prone to having things end on one pitch. But the fear is that deGrom is X times more likely than the average guy. Maybe there’s some truth to that fear. Or maybe it’s like buying two Mega Millions tickets and smiling from ear to ear because you doubled your chances of winning a billion dollars.

If everything goes right for deGrom on Tuesday, his next start will be the final game of the series against the Braves on August 7. And if he makes it thru those two starts still healthy, my own view is that the kid gloves should come off and we should view him like we did prior to 2021 – a guy who should essentially take his turn every five days. And if all that happens and he pitches well, too, then maybe people will appreciate his greatness more than they did previously.

THE ANYTHING BUT COMMON STARLING – My opinion is that Mets fans haven’t properly appreciated the performance of deGrom, taking him for granted rather than marveling at his exploits. With that as our background, it would be fair for others to claim that I haven’t appreciated Starling Marte. After all, the guy made the All-Star team and I felt like he wasn’t all that.

But the Marte we’ve seen recently has been outstanding. Since June 25, a span of 100 PA, Marte has produced a .376/.420/.591 line. Sure, the hits are falling in for him. But the piece that’s been missing from him – in my mind – is the power. A .215 ISO is really nice to see. He’s done that with 11 XBH, including 4 HR. If the singles start finding gloves but he keeps the .215 ISO, that’s a guy you’ll gladly take on your team for the playoffs.

PRAISE FOR THE DEPTH RELIEVERS – With deGrom’s return imminent, Trevor May’s not too far behind and the possibility of adding a reliever or two at the deadline, we’re going to see some relievers currently on the roster lose their spots. And at least with deGrom and May – that’s the way it should be. These relievers got a shot because of the injuries but the return of the walking wounded means we’ll get to seem them replaced by guys who have a history of performing better on the Mets.

Relievers are fickle and short samples from said relievers are even worse. Shoot, May has an 8.64 ERA and we all believe he’s much better than that. But while recognizing that short spans for relievers is not necessarily indicative of their likely true-talent level, we should definitely appreciate the results of out depth relievers. Before listing their stats, recall that in 2019, the Mets had just one reliever who wasn’t on the Opening Day roster with an ERA under four and that was Brad Brach with a 3.68 ERA in 14.2 IP. So, here are results of the 2022 depth guys:

Adonis Medina – 3.00 ERA in 21 IP
Colin Holderman – 2.04 ERA in 17.2 IP
Stephen Nogosek – 0.61 ERA in 14.2 IP
Tommy Hunter – 2.38 ERA in 11.1 IP
Yoan Lopez – 2.79 ERA in 9.2 IP

Holderman’s been traded and Medina is currently in the minors. The other three will probably join him there, soon. But it’s been incredible to have five depth guys combine for 74.1 IP and a 2.18 ERA out of the pen. The 2019 Mets are jealous.

ROLL OUT THE BARRELS FOR VOGELBACH – The Mets traded Holderman to get Daniel Vogelbach, to give the team some lefty punch for the DH spot. The thing that jumps out about Vogelbach when you first see him in a Mets uniform is his size and shape. At 270 pounds, he weighs the most of any Met hitter, ever. The closest is Lucas Duda, who officially weighed 255 pounds. But Duda was almost lanky compared to Vogelbach, who’s much more barrel-chested than Duda. Among Mets hitters, perhaps only Rod Barajas was a similar shape. Or if you squint, perhaps Marlon Byrd.

Unique size aside, Vogelbach has gotten off to a terrific start with the Mets. He’s not hit a homer yet but is doing everything else. He has a .545 OBP and a .500 SLG, which has dwarfed what the Mets’ DHs have provided previously. It remains to be seen if the Mets will add a RH bat to platoon with Vogelbach but they’ve gone from a virtual zero at the DH slot to having 2/3 of it filled nicely.

JUST BECAUSE PEOPLE SAY IT DOESN’T MAKE IT TRUE – There’s a theory, most often observed in the political world, that if you repeat a lie often enough it becomes truth. In our sports world, one that gets said over and over and over again is how tough the Marlins play the Mets. But anyone who’s watched the teams over the past five years should have a really difficult time swallowing that particular one. Yet that doesn’t stop it from being said.

The Mets are now 51-30 since 2018 against the Marlins. All teams should play the Mets that tough. Now, the Marlins have not been particularly good the last five years. They have a 265-382 record, which is a .410 winning percentage. Against the Mets in that span, they have a .370 winning percentage. If anything, the Marlins have laid down when facing the Mets the past five years, especially when you consider the Mets have been below .500 in three of those seasons.

Next time you hear someone say the Marlins always play the Mets tough, please correct them immediately.