Three weeks ago, the New York Mets were staring down a tough 21-game stretch, including eight with the Atlanta Braves and seven with the Philadelphia Phillies and two with the New York Yankees – all contenders for the World Series. The stretch started with the Mets just 3.5 games ahead of the Braves. The Mets came out of the gate for the gauntlet fast, taking four of five from the Braves and sweeping the Cincinnati Reds, pushing their division lead over Atlanta to seven games. The Mets then took two of three from the Phillies, but the Braves managed to pick up a game and a half.
Then the Mets caught the injury bug. Starting pitchers Carlos Carrasco and Tijuan Walker each had to leave their starts early, with Carrasco looking to miss significant time with an oblique injury. Eduardo Escobar got injured and hit the 10-day Injured List on August 15. Luis Guillorme was injured at about the same time, August 14, and is on the injured list. That pressed the Mets to call up top prospect Brett Baty, who promptly hit a home run in his first at bat to the elation of Mets fans. Baty hasn’t hit anything since, but that moment, it was terrific.
Once those injuries hit, the Mets immediately stumbled, finishing the tough three weeks by losing three of four to the Braves and both games to the Yankees. The Mets went 13-8 over those key games, which is a solid .619 clip, and a 100-game win pace. Yet, the Mets lost two games in the standings and enter the last 37 games with just a 1.5 game lead over the Braves.
As noted the Mets have three with the Los Angeles Dodgers, three with the Milwaukee Brewers and three with the Braves in the next 37 games. The rest of the schedule, as detailed before, is against teams with a composite ~.407 winning percentage. That reflects a 66-win team over the course of a season, and that is not good baseball.
Just how much of an advantage that is remains to be seen. The Braves have a similar schedule, facing the St. Louis Cardinals and the Seattle Mariners for three games each, plus the off-and-on San Francisco Giants. They have the same three games against the Mets. Where the Mets advantage comes in during the last month and a half is the Braves have seven games with the Phillies. The Braves have twice as many games in the home stretch with teams with a winning record.
The interesting part of that is the Mets are 41-32 against teams with a .500 or better record while the Braves are just 29-29. Amazingly, the Braves have played 15 fewer games against winning teams and have absolutely cleaned up against bad teams. This highlights how different each teams’ homestretch is.
The Phillies are about to get Bryce Harper back, and are fighting for a playoff spot, if not the division crown, so they will be tough on the Braves. The Braves have thusfar split their season series 6-6 with the Phillies, while the Mets dominated them 14-5. Both the Braves and Mets have dominated the Miami Marlins and Washington Nationals, going 19-7 and 20-7, respectively.
Max Scherzer is healthy. Jacob deGrom is healthy. The schedule has now tilted in the Mets favor. The remaining schedule is rated as the easiest in baseball. Now they have to go out and execute, and they should ease into 100+ game win season and a division title.
It’s amazing to me that one year after the Giants won 107 and the Dodgers won 106 games, we may have another division with two teams having triple-digit wins.
The Red Sox (108) and Yankees (100) did it in 2018, Before that, you have to go back to 2001, when the Mariners (116) and A’s (102) accomplished the feat.
After the Braves went on their initial tear in June, I didn’t believe they had another stretch like that in them. But the bastards have proven me wrong.
the discrepancy in strength of schedule is really illuminating. if you look at MLB.com today it has the Mets at 37-29 against teams better than .500 (66 games) and the Braves at 26-28 (54 games).
We do have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB, but I read somewhere that the Braves had the 5th easiest, so not exactly a golden opportunity. A sweep of the Rockies to start the homestand with the Cardinals putting up more of a fight than most recent Braves opponents would be really helpful. The goal of course should be to get back to at least 3.5 or 4 games up heading into the final week with the 3 game series in Atlanta. We need to play .700 ball against the Nats, Pirates, Cubs, Marlins, etc and no worse than .500 against the Dodgers, Brewers and Braves.
What impressed me is that they only lost 2 games in the standings during that 21-game gauntlet, esp. given all the injuries and Joely.
The Mets have the easier schedule and should win the division but the games played between the lines not on paper. On paper I am not worried and on the field I am waiting for the Braves to stumble slightly.
When I analyze the respective schedule I surmise that the Mets will win 103 games and the Braves will win 99. More importantly, when the Mets arrived in Atlanta they will have a 4 game lead. Just one game won against Atlanta will take the season series and clinch the division no matter they do in their three remaining game. It would be sweet to clinch it in Atlanta!
I like it!