In January of 2021, it was said here that, “One of the lousy things about the shortened 2020 MLB season was that it robbed us of a full season of prime Jacob deGrom.” Little did we know then that we wouldn’t get full years from deGrom in 2021 or 2022, either. In a fair universe, we should have gotten 90+ deGrom starts in the 2020-22 seasons. Instead, we’ve had just 32 starts to date and at the end of the year, we’ll have fewer than 40 starts by the best pitcher in the game.

But, 32 games is essentially a full-season’s worth of starts. So, deGrom from 2020-22 has the following line:

189.1 IP, 14-5, 1.71 ERA, 0.697 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9, 14.1 K/9

I’m heartbroken that we’ve missed out on 50-60 starts of this caliber over the past three years. Five postseason starts this year will take some of the sting away but not even a complete game shutout in Game 7 of the World Series can make up for all of the missed games. My sincere hope is to see another Mets World Series championship one day. Yet, the true joy of baseball is the 162-game season and seeing players perform over the six months.

May we get to see deGrom in a Mets uniform thrill us for six months and more in 2023.

AN UNDER-THE-RADAR HOT STREAK – Right after the All-Star break, Pete Alonso and Starling Marte were red-hot and helped carry the Mets. As they cooled off, Mark Canha and Jeff McNeil have gone on runs that have made people sit up and take notice. But there’s another player who has performed well the past two weeks that few have noticed. In his last 14 games, Brandon Nimmo has an .883 OPS. For sure, that’s far short of what Canha and McNeil have done in the same time frame. But given that Nimmo had just a .718 OPS over the previous 307 PA, an .883 OPS here recently is very good to see. In 63 PA, he has 10 BB and 6 XBH, displaying both the patience and power that have been missing from his game for a good chunk of the season.

ROUGH STREAKS FOR RELIEVERS ARE A GIVEN – It’s hard to watch someone struggle, even if you know it’s part of the deal. Virtually every reliever goes thru a stretch, typically 6-12 games, where they’re significantly worse than what they are the rest of the year. And we’re witnessing that with Mychal Givens right now. It’s unfortunate that his bad stretch corresponded with his joining the Mets. With the Cubs, Givens had a 2.66 ERA and a 1.254 WHIP. In his 11 games with the Mets, Givens has a 10.61 ERA and a 1.821 WHIP. Givens has a month to get back to being the reliever he was with the Cubs. And in his 7-year career prior to 2022, Givens had a 131 ERA+ in 396.1 IP. It certainly doesn’t feel like it at this moment but everything in his career points to Givens being a productive reliever.

NAQUIN HAS US REACHING FOR ADVIL – Unlike Givens, Tyler Naquin got off to a terrific start after joining the Mets. In his first eight games, he was 10-21 with 6 XBH. But since that time, he has been less than good. In his last 26 PA, Naquin has just a .237 OPS. The problem has been his complete inability to make contact. He has 14 Ks in this stretch, including eight consecutive PA where he whiffed. That’s a 53.8 K%, which is enough to make even Khalil Lee wince. Strikeouts have always been part of the bargain with Naquin. Lifetime, he has a 25.6 K%, so this 53.8 rate can’t last. At least we hope it can’t.

TO PLAY THE GAME AND TO WIN AGAIN – During last night’s broadcast, Gary Cohen mentioned that a victory would clinch a winning record on the year for the Mets. They did indeed pick up the “W,” which upped their record to 82-46. In 61 seasons, this will be the team’s 27th time that they finished with a winning record.

Earlier, we referenced how relievers generally bunch their bad outings together. The Mets typically bunch their good seasons together. Here’s how their winning seasons appeared:

1969-1976 – Seven winning years in eight, including five straight seasons above .500
1984-1990 – Seven consecutive winning seasons
1997-2001 – Five straight years above .500
2005-2008 – Four seasons in a row with a winning record
2015-2016 – Back-to-back playoff years

The only time the Mets didn’t start a streak after finishing with a winning record was in 2019. We’ll blame that on the one-two punch of the pandemic and Brodie Van Wagenen. The 2022 squad feels like the beginning of another extended run of winning and not a one-off like 2019.

4 comments on “The last deGrom “season,” Nimmo’s positive regression and Givens’ bad timing

  • T.J.

    Brian,
    A fine and astute write up as usual. However, I will disagree with you on one point…having watched the recaps of Old Timer’s Day yesterday, with the players aging just like the rest of us, I would most certainly trade 50-60 Jake starts for a 2022 game 7 shutout victory. Especially since those 50-60 starts are already gone, and I did read “rumors” of Jake landing in Atlanta next season given the proximity to his family home in Florida.

    Givens timing has been unfortunate but in his last outing, while he contributed to the baserunners, I thought that the big mistake in the AB that resulted in a bases clearing double was throwing the same exact fastball up an away on every pitch in the count…some, most, or all of that is on the catcher.

    • Brian Joura

      Thanks for the kind words!

      In the 1967 World Series, Bob Gibson had 3 complete games, all wins, including Game 7. For the series he had a 1.00 ERA in 27 IP. When people talk about Bob Gibson 50+ years later – what’s the first thing they talk about? It’s not his performance in the 1967 World Series. It’s his magical 1968 season, despite the fact that he lost Game 7 in ’68. deGrom had a chance to be better than that last year and we missed out on it. I want those 17 missed starts from last year, along with the ones he should/could have had in 2020 and 2022, too.

      We miss you in the Game Chatters.

  • Mike W

    The worst thing that could happen is deGrom ending up in Atlanta. Atlanta is stacked with young talent and have extended a good number of their young players for years to come. The Braves are on our heels. Scary thing is that they can become even better in years to come. Heck, they are winning like this without Soroka or Albies.

    • Metsense

      Cohen says he will do everything to keep deGrom. That means $45-50 M for Atlanta which they can’t afford.
      Nimmo will get his pay day from the Mets. 5 years, 90-105M.
      1986-1991 I was a Sunday season ticket holder. 1972 , me and my high school buddy went most of the Friday or Saturday games $1.65 LIRR, $1.35 upper deck, $1.00 to the usher in the Mezzanine, packed sodas, snacks and sandwiches. The best four bucks I have ever spent !
      Naquin and Givens are given Eppler a bad name. They are free agents this winter so there is no Met commitment. They are playing for playoff roster spot. It is in their hands because Baty, Drew Smith, Peterson, Megill and Hunter want their spot.

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