Saw it on the tube
Bought it on the phone
Now you’re home alone
It’s a piece of crap
Whenever we buy something, we enter the purchase with expectations. Now, maybe they’re not realistic expectations – maybe we’ve just been conned by marketing – but there are expectations, nonetheless. And it’s different if your expectations aren’t met with an item that you spent a couple of dollars on, versus one that reached triple digits or more.
And it’s no different for your favorite sports team.
The Mets have made some high-dollar acquisitions since Steve Cohen took over. Let’s look at those, along with some lower-priced additions, determine what should have been reasonable expectations and see how they’ve panned out.
Albert Almora – They signed Almora looking for a defensive center fielder who wouldn’t be a complete liability. In his five previous seasons in the majors, Almora had an 84 OPS+. The Mets got him on a $1.25 million deal. But he played just 47 games and had a (-12) OPS+. Not expensive, but ultimately a piece of crap.
Javier Baez – The Mets needed a jolt, with half of the team on the IL and the other half underperforming. They traded an injured top prospect to the Cubs for Baez and Trevor Williams. Baez had a 102 lifetime OPS+ heading into the 2021 season and had a 104 mark with the Cubs when traded. He got off to a rough start, both at the plate and with the fans, but by the end of the year, he had a 140 OPS+ with the Mets. It was for a team going nowhere, though. And the injured prospect is having a terrific year for the Cubs in the minors. Expensive and not worth it, even though it was better than expected.
Chris Bassitt – In a system not filled with a lot of useful items, the Mets sent two pitchers with MLB upside to Oakland to land Bassitt, a pitcher with a lifetime 119 OPS+. Bassitt has been a consistent and reliable pitcher for the Mets and he’s doing his best pitching here down the stretch. He’s up to a 120 OPS+ for the season. Meanwhile, Adam Oller has a 6.01 ERA in the majors and J.T. Ginn has a 6.11 ERA in Double-A. Sort of expensive, in the context of the Mets’ farm system at the time of the deal, but totally worth it.
Mark Canha – It seemed like a bargain when the Mets signed Canha to a 2/$26.5 million deal, with a team-friendly club option for a third season. After all, Canha had a lifetime 114 OPS+ and was coming off a 3.1 fWAR season. He started off the year ok, getting on base at a good clip but with little power. And then a switch was turned on and now he’s driving the ball. Right now, his OPS+ sits at 125 and he’s out-performing what was considered initially a bargain deal.
Carlos Carrasco – The second player involved in the trade from the then-called Indians, Carrasco was rotten in an injury-shortened 2021 and league average here in 2022. He came to the Mets with a lifetime 114 ERA+ so he’s been a disappointment. But there’s been value to his 24 starts this year.
Eduardo Escobar – Much like with the Canha deal, the Escobar signing looked like a bargain. The length/option was identical and the cost was less. Escobar joined the Mets with a lifetime 99 OPS+ but was in triple digits for the last four complete seasons. He was a disappointment thru large stretches of the 2022 season but has come alive here recently. His OPS+ is now 95. Basically, he’s been below what should have been expected but better than what they paid.
Rich Hill – With all of the injuries that hit the club in ’21, the Mets needed someone who could pitch every five days and give more innings than an opener. They traded two players to the Rays for Hill, who gave the club exactly what they needed from him. In 13 games, he gave them a 106 ERA+ and posted a 1.0 fWAR. Meanwhile, Matthew Dyer has a .632 OPS in A-ball and Tommy Hunter re-joined the Mets in the offseason. The deal didn’t cost much and Hill was exactly what they’d hope he’d be.
Francisco Lindor – The Mets gave up a fair amount to get Lindor and then signed him to a massive contract. He came to the team with a lifetime 118 OPS+. In his first season in New York, Lindor was a disappointment, with a 100 OPS+. This year has been more like what should have been expected, as he sports a 121 in the category. Of course, Andres Gimenez, one of the players who went to Cleveland in the deal, has a 145 OPS+ and is paid about $30 million fewer than Lindor. Very expensive, in terms of talent sent out and money now paid to him. He’s delivering this year what should have been expected.
Aaron Loup – A cheap addition at 1/$3 million, Loup turned in an outstanding season, with a 427 ERA+ and a 1.6 fWAR for the Mets in 2021. Many were upset that Loup left for the Angels. But this year has been awful and it couldn’t have worked out better for the club.
Starling Marte – He ended up being more expensive than either Canha or Escobar but no one thought the contract he received was out of line. He came to the Mets with a lifetime 116 OPS+ and so far this year has a 131 OPS+, right in line with last year’s 132. He’s easily out-performing his contract.
Trevor May – Thought to be the big bullpen acquisition for ’21, May came in with a lifetime 95 ERA+ but had been significantly better – 140 ERA+ – in the three previous years to joining the Mets. May had a 113 ERA+ last year and this has been an injury-marred season. He wasn’t overly expensive but he hasn’t been worth it, either.
James McCann – Came to the Mets with a lifetime 86 OPS+ but a 114 mark in the previous two years. He’s been injured and ineffective in his two seasons with the Mets, with a 76 OPS+ last year and a 59 mark this season. McCann has been somewhat expensive and certainly not worth it.
Adam Ottavino – Like Loup, Ottavino came on a low-budget deal, signing for 1/$4. All he’s done is put up a 186 OPS+, compared to a lifetime 127 mark. Rarely mentioned as an important acquisition, he’s been the second-best reliever for most of the year.
Kevin Pillar – Signed last year after Almora, he was a better version of the fourth outfielder that the club needed. He came to the Mets with a lifetime 89 OPS+ and delivered an 87, with more playing time than anticipated. Fans were a bit disappointed when he left the team in free agency but he’s out for the year with a fractured shoulder, suffered shortly after he was recalled from the minors, where he spent the majority of his playing time this year. For the Mets, he was inexpensive and delivered exactly what should have been expected.
Max Scherzer – The Mets gave him a contract with the highest AAV and he’s been more than worth it, when healthy. He came with a lifetime 134 ERA+, including a 167 mark in 2021. This year he has a 173 ERA+. The only problem is that it’s the second week of September and he’s made just 20 starts. Three playoff wins and all the missed time will be forgotten.
Jonathan Villar – The Mets signed Villar to be a backup infielder and got the veteran with a lifetime 95 OPS+ on a discount deal, due to his poor performance in the Covid year. Villar went out and played more than anyone expected and delivered a 101 OPS+ in 505 PA. He was an excellent value but few shed any tears when he left as a free agent. And he’s been even worse than Loup away from the Mets in 2022.
Taijuan Walker – Perhaps the hardest player to judge on this list, Walker came to the Mets with a lifetime 109 ERA+ but one marred by injuries. He’s been mostly healthy his two years with the club but few view him as a major piece. He had a 91 ERA+ last year, where he was great in the first half and then hit a wall in the second. Walker’s following a somewhat similar pattern this year, although he currently sits with a 108 ERA+. The injury questions allowed the Mets to pick him up on a team-friendly deal and he’s out-performed his contract. But few are jumping for joy.
*****
This piece started out with an idea – How would the Mets be if Escobar and McCann matched expectations? But not every move works out and the Mets have had more than their fair share of success stories and matched expectations the past two seasons. If Escobar and McCann (and May) are the biggest flops, that’s not too bad.
I read this week that Gimenez is hitting .345 in 200 plate appearances against off speed pitches. It’s kind of weird to me that he’s that high; wondering why he isn’t seeing more heat and what will happen when he gets it.
All-in-all, the only moves I have not liked from the outset was a Baez trade and a Ruf trade that both appear as unnecessary overpays. In fact, I can’t figure out which was the bigger overpay because Trevor Williams has been a blessing this year to negate some of the excess cost of a top prospect, and Ruf is a 36 year old part time DH that cost three pitching prospects and a position player that did more or less what Ruf is doing, and they have Vientos who has killed lefties all year! Gosh I hated those trades! Plus Davis has been killing it in San Francisco as that hard contact is now coming around. SMH at the way the Mets tends to overvalue the other teams’ players.
While the idea is right, the numbers you mentioned are incorrect.
Gimenez this year does indeed do very well against the soft stuff, with a .392 AVG in 79 ABs this year against off-speed pitches. But it’s not like he’s seeing a bunch of those pitches compared to fastballs. While he’s had 79 ABs end against an off-speed pitch, it’s been 232 that have ended against a fastball.
It might be helpful to see his month-by-month breakdowns. In 2021, Gimenez had a .121 AVG against off-speed pitches. Perhaps this year they started off throwing him more slow stuff and now that he’s hitting it, they’ve moved away.
And what do you know – Statcast does have this info. In May, Gimenez faced off-speed pitched 19.6% of the time – overall, not just when the AB ended – and from there it went to 17.7 to 12.7 to 11.6 to 12.1 so far in September.
No doubt Gimenez could have played a fine SS and delivered at the plate and in the field, but Lindor is a generational player and the corner stone of our team. Most people look past his fielding and key only on how he is hitting. I’ve never seen so many DP from this team in all my years watching and many involved Lindor. As for McCann he has been my biggest disappointment because if he hit .250 and not .190 we would be five games up in the Braves. What we get from Nido is a bonus because he was supposed to be the back up, not the starter. I see Alvarez making the team in SP as the backup to McCann unless the Mets unload his contract elsewhere as part of an off season deal. Alvarez needs to learn how to handle a MLB staff, which he is not ready to do.
And about JD he is far from even being the hitter we hoped he would be and he is not doing much in SF. And his strike outs are plentiful..He played his way off the team. All he had to do was hit as we took the week part of his game, fielding, off the table. I still like Escobar but hoped for me and will be happy when Guillorme, possibly the biggest surprise on the roster, comes back.