David Peterson deserves consideration to be a SP in the playoffs

About a month ago, we looked ahead to what the Mets would do with their rotation once the playoffs arrived. The focus then was which one among Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker would move to the pen. Now, it seems impossible that Bassitt won’t be in the rotation, along with Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. But the question currently in my mind is wondering if Scherzer’s trip to the IL will open the door for David Peterson to be considered for a starting role in mid-October.

Since the original article was posted, Carrasco has made just two starts – having spent time on the IL – and in 4.2 IP has a 7.71 ERA. And that doesn’t even count the 4 UER he gave up in that span. And Walker has a 4.67 ERA in 17.1 IP. While those are incredibly small samples, they at least open the door for Peterson to claim a rotation spot in the postseason.

In that same time span, Peterson has made three starts and has a 3.38 ERA, this despite the fact that opposing hitters have a .417 BABIP against him. Peterson has succeeded due to keeping the ball in the park – no homers allowed in 16 IP – and with a 19/3 K/BB ratio.

We have to consider that two of the three games started by Peterson in this span came against the Rockies and Nationals, so maybe it’s just posting good numbers against second-division clubs. But if we add his previous start, which was 5.1 IP and 0 ER against the Braves, we see Peterson with a 2.53 ERA, still without a HR allowed.

Before that were two relief appearances, which were unsuccessful. Prior to those were two additional starts, including another against the Braves, where he pitched quite well. So, in his last six starts, Peterson has the following line:

31.2 IP, 2.27 ERA, 41/12 K/BB, 1 HR

Yeah, you’d certainly like to see more innings from Peterson. But everything else looks really good, especially if you consider that he’s bouncing between starting and relieving, as well as pitching in the majors and the minors in this span.

Despite his recent success as a starter, and his underwhelming work as a reliever, all you hear about is using Peterson instead of Joely Rodriguez as a lefty reliever in the playoffs. But which one is more important – getting a lefty reliever upgrade for maybe six innings in the postseason or getting a SP upgrade for maybe 20 IP?

It’s not necessarily a slam dunk, as it’s certainly possible that the relief role could be in super-high leverage situations. Still, if Peterson can give you five innings per start in the playoffs, at a 2.27 ERA, you’d be crazy not to strongly prefer that role for him.

It all goes back to the notion that’s been drilled into Mets fans’ heads for more than a decade – that you can’t possibly have a good bullpen without a good lefty reliever or three at your disposal. In an ideal world, sure. But if you win 100 games without a good lefty reliever, maybe having a good lefty reliever isn’t the end-all, be-all for successful teams.

Both Carrasco and Walker have had extended streaks of good pitching here in 2022. It won’t be a disaster if one of them is in the rotation come playoff time. Still, if Peterson continues to thrive as a starter while Scherzer is out, he shouldn’t automatically be confined to the bullpen once the regular season is over.

The Mets should pick the four-best starters and roll with them in the postseason. Maybe that’s Carrasco behind deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt. Perhaps it’s Walker. And maybe Peterson is the guy who gives you the best chance to win.

For the record, Peterson isn’t “my guy,” one that I have any vested interest to see him pitch as a starter. Earlier this year my preference was for Trevor Williams to get starts ahead of Peterson. Shoot, that’s probably still the case. But the Mets have clearly given preference for Peterson over Williams. And the pitching he’s done lately has certainly justified that decision by the Mets.

The question is: Can you give preference to Peterson over Williams, only to turn around and not give Peterson a shot when the other challengers are Carrasco and Walker? My concern (perhaps completely without merit) is that the Mets will give the fourth slot to Carrasco, regardless of how either Peterson or Carrasco does the rest of the regular season.

Carrasco – and to a lesser extent Walker – is a veteran with more good numbers than bad throughout his career. Nothing would make me happier than seeing Carrasco pitch a gem as a starter in a series-clinching win in the playoffs.

But in 24 starts this year, Carrasco has seven outings where he didn’t reach a Game Score of 40. Game Score is a metric designed to judge the quality of a starting pitcher, one where an average score is 50. Do we really want the Mets to use a starter in the playoffs who has a greater than 1-in-4 chance of turning in a clunker?

By contrast, Peterson has just two starts in 17 with a Game Score under 40.

Carrasco has both a higher ceiling – a 7-2 edge in Game Scores of 65 and above – and a lower floor than Peterson. If you were the underdog, perhaps you would prefer that type of variability, needing the possibility of a great outing to win. In my opinion, the Mets need a higher floor from their fourth starter. The biggest need from their playoff SP4 is not to put them behind the 8-ball early in the game.

Of course, there are still games to be played in the regular season. Maybe Carrasco or Walker goes on a roll while Peterson implodes. Maybe there’s a clear choice who the fourth starter should be. My only concern is that the Mets pick the guy who deserves it based on their output in 2022, not anything that happened five years ago for another franchise.