My picks went 7-6 last week, bringing my year-long record to 26-23-2.   The crazy thing is that the picks for the traditional 1:00 and 4:00 Sunday games are solid and the picks for night games have been dismal.  Last week, the column was posted in time to pick the overseas game.  That one was a loss for me, as were the two night games.  So, in games outside the traditional viewing times, my record against the spread is 1-8, while my record in games that start at either 1 or 4 Eastern is 25-15-2.  How do I respond to that?  Why getting picks in early enough for the Thursday night game, of course!

Odds taken from yahoo!sportsbook with home team in bold.  This is for entertainment purposes only.

Tennessee (+3) over Green Bay – What could motivate me to make picks for the Thursday game?  Why, the chance to bet against the Packers.  The Titans are very good stopping the run and it’s unlikely they’ll make the same defensive mistakes that Dallas made last week by playing so much man coverage.  Put 25 Bironas’ on the Titans.

Atlanta (-3) over Chicago – If you give up 31 points to the Lions at home one week, don’t expect me to do cartwheels to take you on the road the following week, even if it is against the Falcons.  Flip 25 Dirty Birds on the home team.

Buffalo (-8) over Cleveland – Is it wise to give so many points in a game where there might be a blizzard happening?  The play here is the Bills looking to rebound big after two tough losses, rather than whatever the weather conditions might be.  Kick 25 Maguires on the Bills.

Indianapolis (+6.5) over Philadelphia – C’mon, admit it, you’re on the Jeff Saturday bandwagon, too.  Besides, the Eagles have had some blowouts this year but most of those have come at home.  It’s too many points to give on the road for a team that just lost on Monday night.  Throw 25 Freeneys on the Colts.

New England (-3) over New York – It seemed like this was the year for the Jets to break the Belichick curse.  The Patriots were 15-2 against the Jets since the beginning of the 2011 season coming into this year, with both Jets wins coming in overtime.  But the Pats hung a 33-point beating on the Jets at the Meadowlands earlier this season and now get them at home.  Bet the streak.  Go 25 Fryars on the Patriots.

New Orleans (-3) over Los Angeles – Both of these teams stink.  But the Rams are playing without Cooper Kupp and while Matthew Stafford is expected to play after missing last week with a concussion, he wasn’t very good with Kupp so it’s hard to imagine him playing well without his top receiver.  Place 25 Roafs on the home team.

New York (-3) over Detroit – Now that the Vikings have beat the Bills, the Giants take over the mantle as the team getting the least respect nationally.  They haven’t been blowing teams out but do we really expect the Lions to win back-to-back road games?  Wager 25 Tikis on the Giants.

Baltimore (-13) over Carolina – The Panthers are 0-6 when they play teams outside of the NFC South, having lost those games by a combined 69 points.  They’re also 0-4 on the road.  It’s a lot of points to give with the Ravens.  But the Panthers make it a worthwhile play.  Bet 25 Stovers on the home team.

Washington (-3) over Houston – The Commanders have won four of their last five games, with their only loss being a 3-point setback to the 8-1 Vikings.  They’ve won three straight road games and should make it a fourth this week.  Pick: 50 Monks on the Commanders.

Las Vegas (+2.5) over Denver – The Raiders are probably the most disappointing team in the league.  But for the most part they can score points.  Meanwhile, the Broncos have reached 20 points just two times all season. Move 25 Ottos on the Raiders.

Dallas (-1.5) over Minnesota – The Cowboys did the Vikings no favor last week by blowing a 14-point lead to the Packers.  They’ll continue to disappoint Minnesota fans by beating them after the Vikings’ emotional win last time out.  Of course, all bets are off if Dallas plays Justin Jefferson in man-to-man coverage for the overwhelming majority of time.  Hold your nose with 25 Newhouses on the visitors.

Pittsburgh (+4) over Cincinnati – The Steelers are 2-0 in games that T.J. Watt has played this year and they’ve generally handled their division rival in home games.  The Bengals will find it tougher sledding than last week against the Panthers.  Roll 25 Blounts on the Steelers.

Kansas City (-6) over Los Angeles – The Chargers played hard and covered last week due to the conservative nature of the 49ers.  Andy Reid will show no mercy and will keep the points coming.  Throw down 25 Buddes on the visitors.

Arizona (+8) over San Francisco – The 49ers are the better team and both of the Cardinals QBs are nursing injuries.  Seems like an easy pick for San Francisco.  But this series has been surprisingly close over the years, both when the Cardinals were in St. Louis and after they moved west.  In their last five wins against the Cardinals, the 49ers have won by more than eight points just once.  Also, the Cardinals have won outright in six of the last eight games in this series played at home.  Feed 25 Aeneas’ on the Cardinals.

One comment on “NFL picks against the spread for Week 11

  • Brian Joura

    Off to a good start with the Thursday night win. It’s nice for a team that’s getting points to win outright. And boy – that Davante Adams trade isn’t working for either team. They’re now a combined 6-14.

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