Still not quite believing the Carlos Correa news.
Lets take a look at the potential upside of the 2023 Mets. We’ll look at the best fWAR for the main guys from the past three full seasons.
5.4 – Brandon Nimmo (2022)
5.5 – Starling Marte (2021)
6.8 – Francisco Lindor (2022)
4.4 – Pete Alonso (2019)
6.2 – Carlos Correa (2021)
5.9 – Jeff McNeil (2022)
3.9 – Mark Canha (2019)
1.5 – Daniel Vogelbach (2022)
2.8 – Omar Narvaez (2021)
6.4 – Justin Verlander (2019)
6.5 – Max Scherzer (2019)
4.0 – Jose Quintana (2022)
2.4 – Carlos Carrasco (2022)
1.4 – David Peterson (2022)
3.0 – Edwin Diaz (2022)
That’s 42.4 from the hitters, without counting any bench production and with only 2/3 of a DH. And another 23.7 from the starters, not counting Kodai Senga and only one relief pitcher. That’s 66.1 fWAR. Then add in your replacement level of 48 wins and you’ve got a ballpark 114-win team.
That will play
Six possible Hall of Fame members above.
Scherzer & Verlander and who are your other four?
Correa, Lindor, Alonso, Diaz. Possible.
In November of 2021, I wrote an article about the guys who had been extended the Qualifying Offer and asked if the Mets should pursue them. They signed two of those guys this year, with no QO attached. Here’s what I wrote 13 months ago:
Carlos Correa – One of the impressive shortstops available this year in free agency, the Mets would need Correa to play third base. Much like with Javier Baez, there’s reason to believe that Correa would switch positions. That is if the Mets gave him the highest offer. He’ll be 27 next season and with multiple 5.0 or better fWAR seasons under his belt already, this is someone the Mets should be in on, even with the QO. Rumor has it that Correa will want to top the salary the Mets gave Francisco Lindor. Is Steve Cohen willing to dig that deep?
Justin Verlander – One of the top pitchers of his generation, Verlander has just 6 IP over the past two seasons due to TJ surgery. Also, he’ll be 39 next year. While we’ll always wish he made it to the third pick in 2004 – he went second, forcing the Mets to grab Philip Humber – it doesn’t seem like he’ll ever wear a Mets’ uniform.
What a difference a year makes.
McCant to the orioles for PTBNL. Paying 75% freight.on the 24M
Gone!
Good riddance! To be more specific, 78.2% is being paid by the Mets.
Worse than Bay? I guess it depends on what metric you prefer, but i say yes.
McCann: $35 mil paid for 2 years of -0.3 bWAR/ 0.9 fWAR
Bay: $63 mil paid for 3 years of 1.8 bWAR/ 0.8 fWAR
On a side note does anyone know which version of WAR the bonus pool for arbitration players are calculated? As you can see there can be vast differences between the two. My guess is they split it down the middle and blend it 50/50 but it would be nice to know.
Add in Jed Lowrie who got paid $20 mil not to come to work.
From Jeff Passan:
The memo, obtained by ESPN, also included the totals for the new version of WAR created by Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association to reward players.
snip
The WAR metric, according to the memo, “was designed to represent the contributions Players make on the field as comprehensively and accurately as possible, while also achieving a high degree of correlation with publicly available WAR metrics.”
Hitters earn value in four categories: batting (based on their weighted on-base average), baserunning (stolen bases and advancing on batted balls), fielding (for position players, judged by Outs Above Average and for outfielders, throwing arms; among catchers, for framing pitches, throwing out runners and blocking balls in the dirt) and positional adjustment.
Pitcher WAR is a combination of the two most prominent calculations: runs allowed per nine innings, used by Baseball-Reference, and Fielding Independent Pitching, preferred by FanGraphs. Relievers are given extra credit for pitching in higher-leverage situations.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/34552636/baseball-new-pre-arbitration-bonus-program-includes-money-based-new-version-war-according-memo
Thanks, sounds like they do use a combo of both systems although not surprising they kept it super vague and private.
The Mets can’t go more than an hour without making a move. First they trade McCann, then they sign someone named Danny Mednick for $1 million and give him a 40 man roster spot. Then you look up his stats and think – why did the White Sox non-tender him? Interesting middle infield depth for the upper minors.
Every morning lately, it seems when you turn on the computer, the Mets have done something else to bolster the team. It’s a “wonderful time of the year”.
Had the Mets followed Brian’s recommendation last year there’s a good chance the 2022 season would have ended with a different vibe. But, as “they” say, better late than never!
Best to McCann in Baltimore. I like the Narvaez-Nido-Alvarez trio…solid and providing good health allows Alvarez the opportunity to develop and learn be it at AAA or in the bigs without the pressure of handling the load.
I’m very curious as to the acquisition cost for The White Sox closer.
114 wins? The Braves and Phillies are pretty darn good and the Marlins will be pesky, plus stuff happens. NL East slight favorites…sure.
McCann and Nido were on thin ice going into the off season. McCann was an altaross with his salary. The going rate for an experienced catcher was $4 m/1. The Orioles got a discount at $5m/2 !
Now Nido should be traded so Alvarez could split the catching duties with the LHB Narvaez, who has a career .751 OPS against RHP. Alvarez would catch vs LHP and also would be in the mix of the RHBs ,as a DH. Last year the Mets faced 55 LHP starting pitchers. It would afford Alvarez the opportunity to catch and be a DH also.
I’m keeping Nido for 2023. Depth at C is important, he knows the pitchers that have been here. Most importantly, he allows for the best handling of Alvarez, and his development is still very important. It will be great if he proves his bat belongs in the bigs early, but if he doesn’t he’ll need more time in AAA to improve away from the scrutiny in the bigs. Likewise for his defense, and with 3 catchers he can be eased in on defense if his bat keeps him in the show with DH ABs.
The Mets have to address the bench, catching and DH positions. It are are murky and not optimal. Escobar is penciled in as the DH because he is a switch hitter and last year the starting third baseman but his strong side is his right side , 827 vs 681 OPS in 2022. Vogelbach was a LHB DH last year and had a 879 vs RHP . Alvarez as a DH has to put up better numbers. That’s alot of pressure for a rookie.
Narvaez has a career spit of 751 vs RHP and last year the Mets faced 107 games against RH starting pitchers. Nido has a .669 OPS vs LHP last year. Nido is the weak link catching position. Alvarez should be a least catching twice a week if he is the majors and 55 games would do that if Nido is traded. For depth they can sign a veteran on a minor league contract. They can also trade Escobar to free up the RHB DH spot for Alvarez. That’s what I would do but the Mets apparently have have other plans for Alvarez.
“Big Splash” in SF?!
The Giants and Michael Conforto have a two-year, $36m deal, with an opt-out after this year.
The Mets need to get one more reliever and a RHOFer.
Would/should the Mets sign Trevor Bauer?
At no cost to speak of they would get a CY pitcher in his walk year and some huge negative press.
He has been punished. But that’s not a lifetime ban.
Rotation of Scherzer, Verlander, Bauer, Senga and Quintana!
Thoughts?
I think the Mets have to at least consider the idea. He was a guy they actively pursued a couple of years ago and at one point it looked like he was coming here. I’d want to run it by Scherzer and Verlander to make sure they didn’t have any reservations.
A lot of teams/fans are already annoyed with Cohen spending all of the money he has this season. Their heads would explode if he added the social outcast Bauer, too.