Starling Marte and the Mets’ struggling offense

The Mets are struggling, having lost 10 of their last 13 games. Everyone has been quick to point to the starting pitching, which has indeed been awful. Injuries have caused the Mets to use nine different starting pitchers already and that doesn’t include offseason acquisition Jose Quintana, who has yet to throw a pitch for the club this season. Things aren’t going to get better until the starters give more quality and quantity than what they’ve done to date.

But while lamenting the output of the starters, be sure to hold the offense accountable, too. They’re tied for 17th with a 4.24 runs per game average but that’s being propped up by a few high-scoring games. Six times the Mets have posted at least eight runs, including one where they erupted for 17. But they have 13 games where they’ve scored two runs or fewer, including six times when they’ve been shut out. The Mets are 1-12 in those games with fewer than three runs scored.

To put that into perspective, the Mets didn’t get shut out for the sixth time last year until August 16 and were only blanked eight times all season.

Since the 17-run outburst on 4/14, the Mets have played 20 games and scored 76 runs, which works out to 3.8 rpg. And that stretch includes games where they scored seven runs, along with eight twice and nine twice. If we just look at the last 13 games, it’s a 3.08 rpg. And that includes both an 8-run game and a 9-run one, too.

There’s plenty of blame to go around for the offense. But the biggest drag has been Starling Marte, who sits with a 61 OPS+. That’s just five points better than Eduardo Escobar, who’s been banished to the bench. Not only has Marte not been removed from the lineup, he plays virtually every day and bats second.

Last year Marte told Buck Showalter that he didn’t care where he played or where he batted in the lineup, he just wanted consistency in both roles. Showalter wanted him to move to right field – which is a decision he doesn’t get enough credit for – and since there was no one else on the club who seemed suitable for the role, he installed Marte as the club’s second-hole hitter.

It worked out pretty good last year. But Marte batting near the top of the order has been a big problem so far. He’s one of the main reasons why the club has struggled to score runs in the first inning this year and it’s not like he’s been lighting things on fire from innings 2-9, either.

Showalter’s now in a tough spot. He either keeps his word to Marte and keeps hindering the club by putting a sink hole where they need a productive bat. Or he risks alienating one of the team’s veterans. Marte has been in the league for 12 years, with two All-Star appearances and two Gold Glove Awards. No one person is above the team. But you need to tread lightly with a player with Marte’s credentials, one who put up a 132 OPS+ just last season.

It’s hard to look good when you sport a .259 BABIP. That’s especially true for Marte, who is a player who consistently posts ultra-high BABIPs. He has a lifetime .342 mark in the category and last year he posted a .340 mark. Subjectively, it seems Marte has earned that low BABIP. He’s not exactly pounding the ball and getting robbed of hits.

How bad has it been this year for Marte? He’s played 30 games and this is tied for the second-worst OPS (.569) in a unique stretch of games in a calendar year in his career. The worst was a .566 mark he put up for the Pirates in 2018. But this year’s run scoring environment (4.59) has been a tick better than it was in 2018 (4.45).

One thing that’s made it a touch easier for Showalter is that there’s essentially no one around to make sitting Marte a reasonable idea. The choices are Tommy Pham and Luis Guillorme, with Jeff McNeil moving to the outfield. Pham’s essentially been an all-or-nothing guy. He’s got 3 HR in 68 PA, which is pretty good. But there’s been virtually no production to go along with the homers. And the less said about Guillorme and his 57 OPS+, the better.

Before the season started, it was my preference – and others, too, including David Groveman – to have top prospect Ronny Mauricio move from shortstop to the outfield. Mauricio hit 26 HR in Double-A at age 21, which is a terrific mark. And then he followed up with a strong Winter Ball campaign and an excellent Grapefruit League season.

Mauricio is a shortstop but that position was taken on the Mets. It was my opinion that the Mets should have been grooming him to be the replacement for Mark Canha in 2024, when Canha’s contract expired. Instead, the Mets kept him at shortstop. Recently, GM Billy Eppler addressed the reason for that, saying they didn’t want to put too much on Mauricio’s plate at once, as he was advancing to Triple-A for the first time.

Was that the right move? Proponents can say it was, as Mauricio got off to a terrific start for Syracuse while playing shortstop. But that’s a little like the guy who puts up a hideous display to keep the elephants away and then says it worked because there have been no elephant sightings in his yard. Put another way, correlation does not equal causation.

Recently, Mauricio was moved off shortstop but not to the outfield. His new home has been second base. You can make the case that a slugging infielder is more valuable than a slugging outfielder. To me, all it’s doing is delaying the inevitable, as my crystal ball sees him as an outfielder. But it’s okay, because of the aforementioned ability of McNeil to move from 2B to the outfield.

The question is: How many games at 2B does Mauricio need under his belt before the club is comfortable playing him there in the majors? Perhaps they made him move to second instead of the outfield because they felt it would be an easier and quicker transformation. Regardless of the why, Mauricio is still hitting since the position switch. In 12 games where he’s played 2B, he’s batting .346 (18-52), albeit without the HR power he displayed earlier. However, three doubles and a triple is still decent power in that time frame.

If the Mets keep struggling to put runs on the board and Marte keeps floundering, then they’ll likely call up Mauricio before too much longer. And even if Marte starts to turn things around, they might still make that move. Because Canha hasn’t been performing up to snuff, either.

There have been 34 players this season with at least 100 PA who’ve played at least 70% of their games in either left or right field. Among these corner outfielders, Marte ranks last with a 61 OPS+. And it’s not significantly better for Canha, who’s 25th with his 89 OPS+. It’s easy to see the Mets using Mauricio/McNeil to spell both Canha and Marte in the outfield, a move made easier with McNeil being able to play either corner spot. And when a LHP is on the mound, one of the removed OFers could still stay in the game at DH.

One of the concerns about calling up a rookie is if he can get consistent playing time. No organization wants to call up a top prospect just to sit him on the bench for extended stretches. But that shouldn’t be an issue for Mauricio here. The dismal production of the club’s corner outfielders makes potential playing time abundant. Right now, the only thing missing is intestinal fortitude on the part of the organization.

But perhaps a continuation of the offense’s recent lousy work – four runs combined in their last four games – can help light the fire necessary for the brass to make a move. Guillorme can be optioned to open up the spot for Mauricio.