It’s officially finger-pointing season for the 2023 Mets. The pitching moves, while mostly defensible at the time, simply haven’t worked out in reality. Players need to look at themselves in the mirror. But so does the general manager for some of these moves. So, if we knew what we know now back in late October, how might the 2023 Mets look?
The Mets lost three starting pitchers in free agency. They probably wanted to keep Jacob deGrom but they weren’t exactly heartbroken when Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker signed elsewhere. They replaced them with Jose Quintana, Kodai Senga and Justin Verlander. Additionally, they picked up the team option on Carlos Carrasco. Here’s the money committed to those four:
Carrasco – $14 million ($3 million buyout)
Quintana – 2/$26
Senga – 5/$75 (conditional optout for Senga after 2025 if he pitches 400 innings first three years)
Verlander – 2/$86.7 (conditional player option if Verlander has 140 IP in 2024)
That’s $82-plus million for this year that if given a do-over right now, the Mets probably would not spend. There’s no way they would pick up Carrasco and it’s highly unlikely they would sign Verlander knowing what we know now. Quintana and Senga might very well be worth their contracts, still, but with perfect hindsight, the Mets probably look elsewhere there, too.
What could they have gotten instead on the free agent market?
Nathan Eovaldi – 99.2 IP, 2.80 ERA, 0.993 WHIP – signed 2/$34 (plus $20 million vesting option)
Michael Wacha – 80.1 IP, 2.90 ERA, 1.054 WHIP – signed 4/$26 (complicated options for both team & player)
Zach Eflin – 77.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 0.996 WHIP – signed 3/$40
Drew Smyly – 82.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 1.222 WHIP – signed 2/$19 (with mutual option)
Again, this is with perfect hindsight. With the possible exception of Eovaldi (and even that’s a big stretch), no one was pounding the table demanding the Mets sign any of these guys. But Senga’s been the biggest success story of the Mets’ pitchers and he has 71.1 IP, a 3.53 ERA and a 1.332 WHIP.
So, for a little over a half of what they actually did spend, the Mets could have put together four pitchers considerably better than what they did. Hey, life’s easy when you play the hindsight game.
But that brings us to the bullpen. While few were actively complaining about the starting pitchers the Mets did sign at the time they happened, plenty were questioning the bullpen moves the club made. Specifically, many of us complained about the team’s strategy to hoard relievers with options, rather than ones with a history of performing well in the majors.
We could list a dozen free agent relievers who are performing well this year. But we all know relievers are fickle and it’s easy to put up good numbers in less than half a season when you’re only pitching around 25 innings. Instead, let’s look at relievers with a history of pitching well out of the pen and see who the Mets might have picked up rather than the Jeff Brigham and Jimmy Yacabonis types that they did.
After the pitcher’s name, the next three columns are what he did from 2018-2022, the next three columns are what he did in 2022 and the next three are what he’s doing here in 2023:
| Name | IP | ERA | WHIP | IP | ERA | WHIP | IP | ERA | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Chafin | 263 | 2.94 | 1.205 | 57.1 | 2.83 | 1.169 | 25.1 | 2.84 | 1.342 |
| Jesse Chavez | 293.1 | 3.65 | 1.217 | 69.1 | 3.76 | 1.313 | 29 | 1.55 | 1.034 |
| Brad Hand | 261 | 3.10 | 1.188 | 45 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 26.1 | 3.42 | 1.405 |
| Chris Martin | 214.2 | 3.44 | 1.067 | 56 | 3.05 | 0.982 | 22.2 | 1.99 | 0.882 |
| David Robertson | 152 | 3.08 | 1.151 | 63.2 | 2.40 | 1.162 | 31.1 | 1.72 | 1.021 |
| Will Smith | 261.1 | 3.27 | 1.125 | 59 | 3.97 | 1.407 | 28 | 2.89 | 0.893 |
This isn’t cherry picking guys like Carlos Estevez, who’ve come on to have a monster season this year that few saw coming. No, this list is guys who were good last year and who’ve been good the past five years having – who would have guessed it? – good years in 2023. While Smith’s year in 2022 doesn’t look particularly good, he was significantly better his final 22 IP after being traded to the Astros.
Meanwhile, Brigham hands down is the success story this year with the optionable relievers the Mets hoarded and he has a 4.05 ERA.
The 2023 Mets would look a lot better if Quintana and Verlander were going at least six innings three out of every five starts and Carrasco was doing it around 50% of the time. That’s what the Mets could have reasonably expected from that trio and they’re just not getting it. But the season would look better, too, if the bullpen wasn’t a disaster. But when you pick up a guy like Yacabonis, because he has options to go along with the 8.36 ERA and 2.143 WHIP he posted in 2022, you shouldn’t be surprised when he puts up a 9.00 ERA and a 1.778 WHIP this year.
They let’s look at the top free agents pitching starters that they past on.
Carlos Rodon – injured 6/$160
Jacob deGrom – injured 5 /$185
Chris Bassitt- 88.2 IP, 4.10 ERA , 1.195 WHIP, 3/$63
Jameson Taillon – 53.2 IP 6.91 ERA, 1.547 WHIP, 4/$68
Taijaun Waler – 77.1 IP, 4.31 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 4/$72
Sean Manaea -49.1 IP, 5.81 ERA, 1.378 WHIP, 2/$25
Andrew Heaney – 72.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 1.286 WHIP , 1/ $12.5
Nathan Eovaldi
The Mets depth starters, Peterson and Megill were failures. Lucchesi was average this year and is doing well in the minors. Senga was a good signing. Verlander and Scherzer hadn’t met expectations … yet, but Bassitt or anyone of the other free agents wouldn’t met expectations either, except Heaney and Eovaldi. Carrasco was a forced extension for once the signed Quintana they should have traded him for a need.
Looking back to off season, and going forward now, it doesn’t look bad with Verlander, Scherzer, Senga, Quintana and Lucchesi. Shane Bieber would be a welcome addition.
If the price is right, Bieber would be a huge pickup. That’s exactly the type of pitcher to go after. Sign Ohtani and your top four next year are Ohtani, Bieber, Verlander and Scherzer.
Problem is still the pen and you have to wonder if last year’s wonder boy Jeremy Hefner might be the sacrificial coach to be canned. Rumors of David Stearns coming in the off-season and bringing his own manager Craig Counsel. Cohen would let them clean house of the coaches. Perhaps a better GM would have been more knowledgeable on aging pitchers. Can we consider seeing if Scherzer would accept a deadline trade somewhere? He would bring a huge haul even as a rental since he could opt out of his contract at the end of the season. But seriously who walks away from $45 million at his age. He could put a contender over the top and we would be off the hook for next years salary.
The Diaz injury changed the complexion of the bullpen this year. The injury occurred at the end of spring training and the cupboard was bare for a replacement.
In December, Robertson was signed as a setup man not a closer. Even with a healthy Diaz they should have signed one or two relievers pre-injury. Another reliever instead of money spent on Narvaez would have be beneficial. There were so many relievers available at that price point in the off-season. In the next 6 weeks they’ll be more available and that problem should be corrected. I hope it isn’t too late. Eppler should be blamed for this one.
Wow! What a searing indictment of Billy Eppler’s judgment.