After 74 games played here in 2023, the Mets are 34-40. If you hadn’t watched the games, you might think this was borderline impossible given the talent on the team. But the pitching has been abysmal, half the team isn’t hitting and the closest thing we see to passion is Jeff McNeil getting mad at himself after another out on a ball that doesn’t leave the infield.
We’ve documented a bunch of different ways the team has come up short so far this season. And with 46% of the season having already been played, we can start to look at splits to see where the team is lacking. Somewhat interestingly, the Mets are close to .500 in a bunch of different splits. And then there are a handful which are the equivalent of red flags, showing where the team really is failing.
Here are ones where the team is at or close to .500:
Home: 17-15
vs RHP: 26-22
1-run games: 12-12
Blowouts: 9-11
vs East: 12-11
vs West: 8-8
Interleague: 10-10
And here’s where the real trouble is:
Away: 17-25
vs LHP: 8-18
vs Central: 4-11
So, how many hit all three of the trouble spots?
4/4 – @MIL vs Wade Miley
5/23 – @CHC vs Drew Smyly
6/9 – @PIT vs Rich Hill
All three of those pitchers were available as free agents in the offseason. Additionally, the Mets lost on the road versus these LHP:
3/31 – @MIA vs Jesus Luzardo
4/18 – @LAD vs Clayton Kershaw
5/3 G1 – @DET vs Joey Wentz
5/4 – @DET vs Eduardo Rodriguez
5/15 – @WSN vs Patrick Corbin
5/28 – @COL vs Austin Gomber
6/20 – @HOU vs Framber Valdez
It’s completely expected to play better at home than on the road. But why do the Mets struggle so versus southpaws? Looking at the overall L/R splits, it’s not really the team’s LHB. Brandon Nimmo is doing better versus lefties than he is versus righties, with an .834 OPS against LHP. McNeil is scuffling some but with a .653 OPS, it’s not like he’s completely helpless. Brett Baty is third on the club among lefty swingers with 29 PA versus southpaws and the rookie has a very respectable .740 OPS in those trips to the plate.
And the majority of righty hitters are doing pretty good, too. Two of the biggest culprits versus LHP have been the rookies. Mark Vientos had a .410 OPS in 18 PA versus southpaws, while Francisco Alvarez has a .133/.170/.22 line in 47 PA against lefties. And not that it’s a surprise but we should mention Tomas Nido had just a .290 OPS versus portsiders.
In fact, if we add all of the team’s catchers versus LHP, we get a .135/.177/.189 line in 79 PA. That’s truly awful but is one lineup spot enough to sink a team? Maybe it is.
Perhaps the biggest issue is that the Mets beef up their overall numbers against southpaws versus lefty relievers but have a tougher time versus lefty starters. Baseball-Reference shows that the Mets have an overall .715 OPS versus lefties but a .679 OPS versus lefty starters. Above it was noted that Nimmo has an .834 OPS against lefties. But versus LH starters, Nimmo has just a .625 OPS. Against Kershaw, Rodriguez and Valdez, Nimmo is 0-10 with 3 Ks.
Perhaps Buck Showalter should give Nimmo some days off when the opposing team throws a lefty ace and not just automatically put him in there because he has excellent numbers overall versus lefties. Days off are a good thing, especially when it’s easy to predict an 0-fer coming.
The Phillies are slated to start lefties Cristopher Sanchez and Ranger Suarez in the second two games of the series. Sanchez has appeared in 24 games in the majors over the past three seasons and made six starts. Both of his games this year have been starts and last time out, he delivered four shutout innings versus the A’s.
Suarez has been exclusively a SP the past two seasons but made 68 relief appearances between 2018-2021. The Mets have had some success versus Suarez, as lifetime he has a 3.73 ERA and a 1.436 WHIP when he faces them. He’s made three starts against the Mets since the start of 2022 and is 0-1 with a 3.31 ERA in those games, with the loss coming earlier this year when the teams squared off in Queens.
But in four starts since then, Suarez is 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA and has allowed just 1 HR in 26 IP.
It’s probably a good idea for the Mets to come out strong in the first game, when they face RHP and old pal Taijuan Walker. The Phillies are 10-5 in games started by Walker this season but that probably says more about their offense than it does his pitching. Walker has a 98 ERA+ this year and the Mets knocked him out after four innings when they met earlier this season.
In a half season, the Mets have seven losses when scoring seven or more runs. Last year, all year the had two.
That would flip their record.
Good hitters hit pitchers regardless of the lefty-righty matchup. Sure, breaking balls present an issue, but a fastball is a fastball. It would be great if we could just always load up with the opposite hand but it’s not realistic. Sometimes you need to ensure that your best defenders are in, which is why giving Nimmo, despite his recent lapses, or Lindor, with his dwindling batting average, time off does not help the fielding part of the game. It is interesting that many years we would be having a good season being only 6 games under .500 at this point, but last year gave us a whole different set of expectations. Would have taken Walker and Bassitt back on qualifying offers but not on multiple year contracts. They are not hitting well or pitching well and their fielding has lapses. Shake up the coaching staff – they are not earning their money.