My preseason projections anticipated drop-offs from Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar. But the other players underperforming on the 2023 Mets were a surprise to me. Today, let’s look at the decline of Starling Marte, since arguably that’s the one that’s hurt the Mets the most. Last year, at age 33, Marte put up a 133 OPS+. Today, Marte sits with an 80 OPS+ and it’s taken a bit of a surge in the last five weeks or so to get it that high.
Let’s compare Marte to other players in their age-33 and age-34 seasons. We’ll look at players to post an OPS+ of 123-143, centering Marte’s 133 mark. Since 2010, there have been 15 players to have enough PA to qualify for the batting title at age 33 with our target OPS+. The chart below shows what they did in both their age-33 and age-34 seasons:
| Name | age-33 OPS+ | Age-34 OPS+ | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Willingham | 143 | 96 | -47 |
| Matt Holliday | 142 | 127 | -15 |
| Aubrey Huff | 142 | 92 | -50 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 141 | 177 | 36 |
| Adrian Beltre | 139 | 138 | -1 |
| Robinson Cano | 138 | 114 | -24 |
| Nelson Cruz | 137 | 159 | 22 |
| Aramis Ramirez | 136 | 136 | 0 |
| Carlos Santana | 136 | 93 | -43 |
| Edwin Encarnacion | 134 | 128 | -6 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 130 | 111 | -19 |
| J.D. Martinez | 128 | 117 | -11 |
| Josh Donaldson | 126 | 132 | 6 |
| Justin Morneau | 125 | 109 | -16 |
| Carlos Pena | 123 | 93 | -30 |
| Total | 2020 | 1822 | -198 |
Eleven of our 15 players declined in their age-34 season, three improved and one stayed the same. It should be noted that one of our improved players was Donaldson, who had his age-34 season limited to 102 PA. Treating all of the gainers and losers as equal, the average player saw a drop of 13.2 points of OPS+ going from their age-33 to age-34 season.
Among the 11 players who dropped off in their age-34 season, the average was a loss of 23.8 points of OPS+. The biggest decliner was Huff, who dropped 50 points of OPS+. Currently, Marte has a drop of 53 points.
To me, there are two takeaways here. The first is the drop experienced by Marte is so large, it wasn’t realistic for anyone to have expected it.
And perhaps the bigger one is that it takes a really special player to duplicate or exceed what he did at age 33 the following season. This is a list filled with All-Star caliber players. Regardless, the majority of them fall off at the age Marte is now.
It’s something to keep in mind when offering long-term deals to free agents or extensions for your own hitters that carry them past their age-33 season. Here’s how it works out in the future for the Mets:
Jeff McNeil – signed thru his age-34 season with team option for age 35
Francisco Lindor – signed thru his age-37 season
Brandon Nimmo – signed thru his age-37 season
Pete Alonso is in his age-28 season this year. I wouldn’t sign him today to a deal longer than five years.
One of many mysterical dropoffs among our hitters. I notice that he’s pressing too much as well, swinging at many pitches outside of the strike zone.
I know that all of us at Mets360 are bitterly disappointed as how 2023 has turned out to be. After the September collapse of 2022 though, the warning signs of how flawed our (offense) team was evident. To me though, a major culprit is how the media had the 2023 squad going deep in the playoffs, and were “expected” to get to the World Series.
Did the players really swallowed this hype? Did the front office? I know I didn’t.
I saw this team in ST and (other then Lindor), was not impressed. But as pessimistic as I tend to be, I figured that the 2023 squad had (at least) a 50/50 shot in getting to the playoffs. Since there 14-7 start, this is a team pressing to hard to the point that they are doomed as constituted. Cohen says he’s not making “radical” changes……too bad. We’ll be stuck with a boring, uninspiring team; playing out the string for the remainder of the season, without such a total tear down.
You can make the case that the one big thing the September collapse and the 2023 season have in common is the output of Marte. Missing almost completely due to injury in September and missing for a whole ‘nother reason here in ’23.
While age is a factor, and Marte’s past use of PED can’t be ignored, he is a shell of the player he was prior to that offseason core surgery. So much so at the plate that he basically looks like he is just pitch guessing to start his swing early, an indication that he lacks confidence in both his ability to drive and his bat speed. Pitchers getting ahead have zero reason to throw him anything close to the zone. At this point he shouldn’t be taking AB from any big leaguers or prospects, and when he plays he should bat 9th.
You are right – it’s not fair to Marte to discuss his 2023 season without mentioning his offseason surgeries. Glad you brought them up.
I guess the thing that confuses me is that if he’s pitch-guessing – shouldn’t he have run into more extra-base hits just by accident? Starting on May 28, when he hit a triple, his first XBH in a week, Marte has a .277/.322/.380 line in 147 PA, with just 3 HR. Marte’s not really a homer guy but you’d think that if he was guessing and guessed right, that he would have more XBH and more home runs than that. Another thing that makes me wonder is if he was guessing – wouldn’t he have more strikeouts looking?
So far this year, Marte has 12 strikeouts looking, compared to 54 strikeouts swinging. That’s 18.2% of his strikeouts being called third strikes.
In 2022, Marte had 27 strikeouts looking, compared to 70 strikeouts swinging. That’s 27.8% of his strikeouts being called third strikes.
It doesn’t seem to me that Marte is up there thinking – this guy’s going to throw me a curve low and inside. It feels more like – I’m swinging here regardless of what the pitch is and where it’s thrown.
There’s a short article on SNY from last night about Marte and the fact that he says he’s still experiencing some pain, although it’s improving. That could be at the core of his issues, but if he’s that hampered by it, he shouldn’t be playing. He’s certainly not productive, and although no one has been particularly great, there are better options than him right now.
This was a very thorough deep dive into Marte and his problems and the problems extending stars beyond 33 years old. The SNY article said that he is still in pain. I was foolish in my a preseason projection. I didn’t take in his age very well but I think the freefall is because of the pain and off season surgery. Right now he is untradable because of his salary and future commitments. Marte’s is now and in a future for Mets, an expensive fourth outfielder. He is an average defensive outfielder, a very good base stealer and I think he will level off next year to be a average hitter (105 OPS+) once he has an off-season to fully recover. Let’s face it, we are stuck with him but maybe hopefully there is an expensive silver lining to the situation.