On Friday, loyal commenter Name posted all of the deadline deals involving the Mets and prospects in the time frame of 2008-2019 and found that the overwhelming number of prospects moved in these deals didn’t do very much in the majors. It was a warning not to expect much from what the Mets received when they dealt David Robertson for two teenagers in complex-league ball.
While it’s always good to keep expectations in check for minor league guys, it’s also important to understand the context of the individual trades. With the Robertson deal, the Mets were trading something valuable and looking for future value in return. That’s a lot different from other trades that may be pure salary dumps or ones involving guys who are useful but not very valuable. It shouldn’t be that hard to remember how much previous ownership enjoyed dumping contracts whenever possible.
Name was kind enough to provide the list of trades from that time period, so let’s go thru them and see if we can get a little more context.
09:
Billy Wagner for Chris Carter & Eddie Lora – Wagner missed most of the 2009 season, making just two appearances for the Mets before being dealt. This was a salary dump. Carter was 26 at the time of the trade. Lora was in his second season in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League and had a .222 AVG and a .701 OPS at the time of the trade. It’s fair to say he was not considered much of a prospect. Here’s what was written here in 2010:
The Mets received Chris Carter and Eddie Lora but the big prize was receiving roughly $3.5 million of salary relief, which was the remainder of what Wagner was owed for 2009 plus the $1 million buyout. So they saved some money and got a guy in Carter who will make things better for their Triple-A affiliate. The Mets can’t allow Buffalo to have another dismal season or else they run the risk of having to field another team in the PCL, as their contract with Buffalo is up after this year.
https://mets360.com/?p=561
11:
Francisco Rodriguez for Danny Herrera & Adrian Rosario – It was very much a salary dump. Even before the 2011 season started, there was a ton of speculation about the Mets dumping Rodriguez because he had an option that automatically triggered if he finished 55 games. Here’s what was written the day of the trade:
It will be sad to see someone else besides Rodriguez close games for the Mets the rest of the way. But it was a trade that had to be made. It would have been crippling to have Rodriguez on the 2012 Mets to the tune of $17.5 million.
https://mets360.com/?p=7288
Carlos Beltran for Zack Wheeler
Definitely a deal where the Mets were trying to maximize the talent received.
13:
Collin Cowgill for Kyle Johnson
The Mets traded a 27 year old with a 518 OPS. There shouldn’t have been an expectation that they were getting anything great in return.
John Buck & Marlon Byrd for Dilson Herrera & Vic Black
This was another deal where the Mets were hoping to get something good in return. Herrera got hurt. Black appeared in 56 games with a 2.83 ERA and a 1.259 WHIP before being done in by a neck injury. It would be nice if we had a guy in the pen like that now.
15:
John Gant & Robert Whalen for Kelly Johnson & Juan Uribe
Since the Mets were sending prospects in this deal, here’s what Fox Sports said at the time:
“The trade could also be seen as a cost-cutting move from Atlanta’s point of view, as it saves the $2-plus million remaining on the two major-league contracts, but it’s also an apparent sign that the team (understandably) does not see itself as a viable playoff contender in 2015.”
https://www.foxsports.com/stories/other/braves-trade-juan-uribe-kelly-johnson-to-mets-for-young-pitching
Casey Meisner for Tyler Clippard
Meisner was a highly regarded prospect at the time of the deal. Here’s what Sports Illustrated said at the time:
“Meisner was a third-round pick in 2013 and has a 2.35 ERA in 18 Class A starts this season. He had reportedly been a popular trade target. Newsday’s Marc Carig reports the Milwaukee Brewers were interested in acquiring Meisner as part of a trade for Gerardo Parra.”
https://www.si.com/mlb/2015/07/27/new-york-mets-tyler-clippard-oakland-athletics-trade
Luis Cessa & Michael Fulmer for Yoenis Cespedes
Clearly a deal where the Tigers were looking to get future value.
Dawrin Frias for Eric O’Flaherty
At the time of the deal, O’Flaherty had a 5.91 ERA. This one was after the deadline and O’Flaherty successfully went thru waivers – no one wanted him. The A’s would have been glad to get a bag of broken bats and a pop-up toaster for him.
Miller Diaz & Matt Koch for Addison Reed
This was another waiver deal, after the trade deadline. Reed had been a successful closer but lost that job and was sent to the minors. The Mets were taking a gamble here and it paid off. This was not a deal where the prospects were big names. Here’s what MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo said at the time of the deal:
“Koch, a reliever, owned a 3.46 ERA with 55 strikeouts in 88 1/3 innings for Double-A Binghamton. He ranked No. 27 on MLB.com’s Mets Top Prospects list. Diaz, a starter, was 5-12 with a 4.71 ERA at Class A Advanced St. Lucie.”
https://www.mlb.com/mets/news/addison-reed-traded-from-d-backs-to-mets/c-146153894
16:
Max Wotell & Dilson Herrera for Jay Bruce
This was one where the Reds expected to get something good. A shoulder injury did in Wotell
Erik Manoah for Fernando Salas
Salas had a 4.47 ERA at the time of the deal. Manoah was a 13th-round draft pick with a 5.37 ERA in short-season ball. The Mets gambled on a reliever being able to contribute 20 good innings and gave up the appropriate org filler for that. And Salas did give the Mets good innings down the stretch. But this was not a deal where the Angels were expecting their return to pay off. Just a lottery ticket here.
17:
The Great selloff, a year similar to 2023 yielded almost nothing (This written by Name)
Name’s point is true. But two things need to be said before we go into details of the individual moves. Right now, everyone wants the Mets to focus on getting pitching. And that’s exactly what they did here and why they shouldn’t make the same mistake at this trade deadline. And the other was that cutting salary was as big of a concern as the players they received here.
Lucas Duda for Drew Smith
This one worked, maybe.
Ricardo Cespedes & Merandy Gonzalez for AJ Ramos
I recall being disappointed that they dealt Gonzalez. But they sold high on a pitcher who had success in the low minors in pitchers’ parks.
Addison Reed for Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan, and Stephen Nogosek
You have to factor in that Bautista was valuable enough to be included in the deal for Edwin Diaz. So, this wasn’t a complete washout.
Jay Bruce for Ryder Ryan
Ryan was traded to Texas for Todd Frazier, so he provided some value, too.
Curtis Granderson for Jacob Rhame
The Mets tried to get value from Rhame, giving him many more opportunities than he deserved.
18:
Jeurys Familia for Will Toffey and Bobby Wahl
Familia was way past his 2014-16 peak when he was dealt. Toffey had numbers that looked ok as long as you didn’t look too hard, as he was a 23 year old in A-ball playing in a hitter-friendly league. His .741 OPS was a 106 wRC+, which is very pedestrian. Wahl was 26 and in the minors when the Mets got him. He wasn’t much.
Asdrubal Cabrera for Franklyn Kilome
This one seemed like the Mets were hoping for something useful, rather than primarily a salary dump.
19:
Simeon Woods Richardson & Anthony Kay for Marcus Stroman
The Blue Jays were definitely hoping for something good here. Kay hasn’t been very good but he has pitched parts of five years in the majors. Woods Richardson was very good in the high minors in 2022 and has pitched in the majors both last year and this year. And he’s just in his age-23 season.
Jason Vargas for Austin Bossart
This was a pure salary dump. Bossart played for the CPL team I work for and he was terrible. There’s no way the Mets were acquiring him thinking he’d be an asset at the MLB level.
*****
So, what do we really have then? In my opinion, here are the prospects either traded for or away by the Mets in this time frame that were expected to contribute in the majors:
Wheeler
Herrera (2X)
Black
Meisner
Cessa
Fulmer
Wotell
Gonzalez
Kilome
Woods Richardson
Kay
It’s tough to know exactly how to assign the 2017 relievers. There’s no question these guys were acquired in salary-dump moves. At the same time, there were expectations that some of them would contribute. Let’s include them.
Smith
Bautista
Callahan
Nogosek
Ryan
Hanhold
Rhame
That’s 12 guys (counting Herrera twice) without reservations that were expected to contribute and seven more that at least come with an asterisk. Of the first group, Meisner, Gonzalez and Kilome were major busts. Herrera and Wotell were injury busts (You could put Kilome here, too) and the rest have been at least somewhat useful, with Fulmer winning Rookie of the Year and Wheeler getting a 5/$118 free agent contract.
Of the second group, Smith has been somewhat useful, with Bautista and Ryan having some trade value. Maybe if you squint, Nogosek could be in the somewhat useful group. He’s now with the D’Backs and he could still add MLB value in the future.
This is a very worthwhile exercise to temper expectations in regards to the two players the Mets acquired for Robertson. But while we shouldn’t expect these guys to be All-Stars, we shouldn’t necessarily expect them to be busts, either. They were acquired with the idea that they would be useful. This is not the equivalent of Bossart, Johnson or Lora.
Unless the Mets trade Pete Alonso or Max Scherzer or Justin Verlander, these players picked up for Robertson will be the ones acquired at this year’s deadline most likely to make an impact in the majors sometime in the future. The expectation of Mets fans should 100% be that Tommy Pham’s not going to bring back a better haul than this.
*****
Thanks to Name for doing the initial leg work on this and sharing his research.
Brian,
Excellent, excellent, excellent follow up. Name excellent, excellent, excellent post, backed up with receipts. This information should be a must read for all the prospect-loving fans, and most importantly, Uncle Steve (and his staff). And, I am no Dave Dombrowski disciple…the best way to sustainable winning is via a strong farm system. But, this illustrates just how hard it is to reach the majors, no less stick and be an asset above replacement level. Back in little league, my coaches told me I had really good bat to ball skills. A few years later, I couldn’t get a whiff of the high school team. Going from A Ball to a big leaguer accumulating WAR is a lottery for the top picks, no less IFAs for minimal signing bonuses. For an Albert Pujols, there are thousands that fall short.
Out of 8 billion people on earth, Robertson is one of probably low single digits that can be the difference for an MLB team making the playoffs, vs not. Even if he is controllable for only 2 months, these teams are only in this spot right now…some to never return. The Mets gave up PCA for this type of rental. The Phillies gave up a high level starter much closer to the bigs for Robertson himself last year. The Mets system has upper level pitching voids and is still rated 12ish overall.
So, I don’t see any calculus that explains Robertson for 2 teenage lottery tickets, unless they are purging all before July 31, including the $43 million duo. With a 90%-95% miss rate, keeping Robertson for the rest of 2023, which enhances the ability to retain him for 2024, and gives the Mets a punchers chance at a wild card spot, is the only rational choice. At a 35-50% hit rate, defined as making it to the majors and contributing, becomes debatable. I believe the hit rate on 1st round picks is under 50%. Lastly, the owner just burned millions acquiring Gott, Gott, a fringe pen arm, who has underperformed…meaning money really shouldn’t be a factor 3 weeks later. I am very concerned with the Mets’ strategy at this stage…let’s see if anything gets clearer over the next few days.
Great piece and I agree that Name really did a great amount of work and analysis to which Brian added educational content.
TJ, in your last line you say you are concerned. Why?
But thank you for leading me into my thought that occurred as a result of selling off this free agent to be. Max Scherzer very openly yesterday said he “wants to talk to the team about the direction it’s going”. I can’t believe the selfishness of this guy. Cohen just spent half a billion dollars and he has the nerve to question the direction? I’d trade him before anything else and keep Verlander. Scherzer wanted to “raise the payroll bar” and he did his job. I can’t believe he has the audacity to complain.
Thanks to you and T.J. for the kind words!
As for Scherzer, someone asked him a question and he responded. I think we have to differentiate between someone who pops off and someone who responds honestly to a question posed to him. Scherzer in that same interview took responsibility for his sub-par performance and how that’s contributed to the Mets’ poor play.
And for what he actually said – should he be crucified for wanting to know if the Mets are going to try to compete for the playoffs in 2024 or if they’re going to be in prospect accumulation stage with little concern for their actual record? He has a player option – an obscenely high option but an option nonetheless – and if I was in his shoes, I’d want to know what direction the team was going in, too.
Ultimately, Cohen is the one who wined and dined Scherzer and he can’t be surprised that Scherzer now wants information to come from him directly, not some errand boy in the front office. Anyway, my take is this is making a mountain out of a molehill. Cohen tells Scherzer that the team’s goal is to win 95 games in 2024 and everyone’s happy and this goes away.
Brian, if I want to know what you have in mind in a matter that has to do with business, should I tell the whole world that I need to have a talk with you? That bothered me quite a bit. He already said that he is exercising the option because, LOL, like who else is paying him $43.33MM next year? So, have your conversations without the Prima Donna attitude.
I understand the frustration and why you label it as a Prima Donna attitude.
However, in my opinion, you’re ignoring relevant information, jumping to conclusions and assuming the worst.
Scherzer was asked a question and he answered honestly. He didn’t enter the locker room swearing and telling everyone within earshot how crappy this was and that he demanded answers from the owner ASAP. This is an important distinction. If he was asked the question and issued a terse, “No Comment,” would that be better? As a fan, I’m glad he left no doubt where he stood and didn’t try to hide behind words or use misdirection with his answer.
I’m frustrated that Scherzer hasn’t pitched better. My hope is that he’s on the team next year and has rediscovered the command of his pitches, especially his slider, and can get back to being the guy who had a 2.29 ERA for the Mets in 2022.
Here’s what my eyes read from this. Cohen went whole-hog in bringing in the most expensive team ever, where the luxury tax alone has more expenditure than 9 other entire team payrolls. In anybody’s estimate, Cohen put his money where his mouth is. In no uncertain terms, this team is a massive disappointment. While we have now become accustomed to the daily misery, I cant imagine what Cohen as a business-person must feel. He essentially is a laughing stock for buying the LOL Mets, sinking an unimaginable amount of money on every aspect of the franchise only to see the crown jewel of the team perform like the Coupon Mets.
Scherzer’s main form of speaking as a player comes from his performance between the lines. The Mets are in a selling situation in large part because of the lousy “speaking” he has done from the mound. The only words I want to hear are: “I understand the position of the team as a business, and we got here because I have failed to do my part to make this team a success. Owners and the FO have to d what they have to do and I accept that”. His admonition about what are the plans, IMO, end with his performance. It is highly unusual for a player who gets compensation from an owner to then seek redress for ownership moves when the play is shockingly below standard. Each win (prorated to 77 wins for the season) is costing Cohen a staggering 4.5M$ to be 17 games out of first place, whereas the Marlins are paying a mere fraction of that at 1.15M$ per win for many more wins (prorated to 87 wins). The Braves are at 2M$ per win with a projection of 104 wins. It’s a total embarrassment and to think otherwise is a mistake.
My feeling is a player needs to stay in their lane and comment on the things they control, not the things they dont control. The owner and FO determine the panther for the team. Cohen (and Eppler) did 100% good faith to place this team for success given the dynamics of the situation they had at the time. If I were Cohen, I send him back to the chain of command and wit to hear about things from Buck, after he is told what is happening.
You got something to say Max: How about “I will stop giving up endless HR every outing and pitch 20 outs on average for at least 25 starts”. After that, just your pie hole.
Chris – 2 thoughts:
1. This sounds like what M. Donald Grant would tell Tom Seaver
2. This sounds like “shut up and dribble.”
The present day Max Scherzer is not Tom Seaver.
If Scherzer was CY Scherzer I’d have a lot more interest in his opinion. This team is a seller because he sucks. His performance is (partly) responsible for this mess, and then to question the owner after dumping an unholy fortune is well misguided IMO.
Waive your no trade Max. No one will want you though. 43.3M$ for practically nothing.
1. Tom Seaver is The Franchise. He was born a Met. Anchored the Amazin’ Mets, won a Wordls Series as a Met, nearly won another, and went to the HOF as a Met. Scherzer has been a met for 15 minutes. He’s not some sort of Met heritage. But most importantly, no player should step over many levels in the chain of command to somehow gain intel about the long-range planning about what the team is doing from top to bottom. That is simply not his job.
In any event, Cohen spoke enough with the decision to deal him — even of this falls through, it’s clear that the team direction and pace is clearly not in his purview, nor should it be.
2. His comments are exactly nothing like “shut up and dribble.” His desire to know about detailed directions of the team are not related to protected free speech or standing up for social justice. Shut up and dribble equates basketball players as low level entertainers that shouldn’t have a life outside their sport. This is exactly zero like that. This is the political equivalent of some Lieutenant deciding to know about military plans by going to the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. It doesnt work that way.
Im not gonna cry a tear if he is traded, even of the Mets eat a lot of his contract.
Scherzer to the Rangers! Good! Bye Max! That didn’t take long!
Cohen didn’t deserve that yesterday.
100% agree.
Gus,
Eppler is well-experienced, and seems to be a smart guy. The marks against him are his record with the Angels, with a lot of money at his disposal, and specifically his inability to field a good pitching staff. Like all GMs, he has some good and some bad trades. His Ruf trade was worse than bad, and I suspect other front offices may have been laughing at it, perhaps making it more difficult to get solid value in future trades. I see the Robertson trade, as of this moment, as a huge disappointment. Others disagree, which is fine. Yeah, he’ll spin off Pham and/or Cahna for more “depth”, aka guys with a 1% chance of contributing to the Mets in Flushing, or guys that will be add ons for a future trade. Anyone on this site can engineer those deals. Is he really going to part with Verlander and/or Scherzer? Those are big deals and will leave big holes…can we trust him to get back value after the Robertson give away? I see Seth Lugo may be on the market, a guy the Mets had zero interest in as a starter, another judgment that is suspect (see JD Davis et al).
By ranking organizations, the Mets have a 12-15 ranked system, after graduating Alvarez and Baty. The system is not sparse. Now that they are more or less punting on 2023, what is Eppler’s real plan for 2024. Sometimes, holding a couple of key players with expiring contracts, winning 86 games and coming just short of the playoffs has more value than winning 73 games and getting some more 15-20 rank prospects that have little shot at ever making it, no less in 2024. Those things matter to the Verlanders, Scherzers, and by the way the Ohtanis, other free agents, the fans, etc.
Name, thank you for enlighten us. Brian, thanks for the follow research.
Usually teams that are buyers at the deadline trade prospects for established players. Therfore, a buying team has to have a deep minors to compete order in to gain good established players. The Mets didn’t have a deep minor league. They are sellers this year. Eppler should trade any veteran that has an expiring contract to obtain a #20 or below prospect, even if they to pay down the salary. It would enhance their minors. When the Mets are trading in the future, these minor league assets will come in handy. So far, the Escobar and Robertson deal have yielded four prospects, the #20 or below, on the Mets prospect list.
well guess what…
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/rangers-in-serious-talks-with-mets-about-max-scherzer-trade.html