About 10 days ago, I wrote an entirely different column than what appears here. The previous version was a decently upbeat assessment of the Mets’ short-term future and a maybe too rosy look at the talent the team obtained by trading aging superstars.
Then I watched the first two games of the Royals series – with the likes of Danny Mendick and D.J. Stewart in the starting lineup. The thought of living through two more years of barely major league players just for the hope of better players rising through the farm system is enough to turn off the baseball switch for 18 months and repurpose the time to refinishing furniture.
Obviously this year is a lost clause. Absent a comeback like the 1973 Mets, our team will miss the playoffs this year. The main reason that such a run is highly improbable is the current Mets lack of pitching – both in quality and in depth. There is no comparing the 2023 staff with the greats who took the mound for the Mets in 1973: Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman and Jon Matlack. With Edwin Diaz on the shelf, the Mets bullpen has no Tug McGraw to call in to get them out of a tough spot and protect a lead in the late innings. That said, we are now compelled to envision the 2023-2024 seasons as a total reclamation project.
The best way to analyze the predicament the Mets find themselves in is to narrow the choices that have to be made to make the team better. Identifying where the team is solidly committed to a player is the first place to start. Let’s start with position players and then move on to the starting staff and finish off with the bullpen.
Here goes:
First Base: Pete Alonso
Shortstop: Francisco Lindor
Third Base: Brett Baty
Catcher: Francisco Alvarez
Center Field: Brandon Nimmo
This list is a solid core. The two who are rookies, Alvarez and Baty, have high ceilings. Alvarez is proving himself to be a superb defensive Catcher with a bat that will play for a decade. Baty has to show improvement (especially in his chase rate), but his swing is great and the team is committed to giving him time in the majors to show he belongs. Of the players listed, only Alonso has a contract situation that has the player in Flushing for fewer than five more years. This list does not include Jeff McNeil, who can play multiple positions (LF, RF, 2B and 3B). He has four more years on his current contract. It should be noted that the Mets were not able to find a suitable trade partner to fill their hole at the DH spot. I would like to go on record as saying this: For the love of God, please let’s move on from Daniel Vogelbach.
From here, the seven minor league players the Mets obtained in their unloading of aging veterans and the players the Mets had in their system prior to the trade deadline are the future of the franchise. This column is not the place to do an analysis of the minor league players the Mets obtained from other systems. It is enough to say that Billy Eppler focused on obtaining high ceiling players who might not be able to help for two to three years. It appears that there is sufficient versatility so that the position players will be manned by good players. Unfortunately, Eppler’s statement that the trade deadline deals were a transition from talent on the major league squad to the “organization” is great rhetoric and simultaneously portends a virtual disaster for at least the next season or two.
Whether the plan works or not obviously remains to be seen. However, one area the team absolutely did not improve was its pitching staff. The Mets have no top end pitching in any level of their minor league system. And they didn’t acquire any in the frenzy of deals they made at the trade deadline. On every Mets fan’s radar, of course, is Shohei Ohtani. An entire column could be devoted to this topic, but let’s just say that every indication is that the Mets will not be in on this once in a generation player. Moreover, it is unlikely that the team will be able to lure high end free agent pitchers to Flushing for at least a few years to come.
That leaves the biggest decision that the team will have to face in the coming off-season: what to do with Pete Alonso. At the beginning of the season (when all was optimism and dreams) I wrote a column that predicted the Mets would extend the Polar Bear and that he would cash in rather handsomely. The harsh reality of a lost season and the forecast of at least two sub-.500 seasons ahead might make both parties rethink a continued relationship. The fact that his name was mentioned in trade rumors shows that the Mets’ front office was at least considering it.
My sense is that Eppler may try to turn Alonso’s last year of arbitration eligibility (along with more of Steve Cohen’s money) into pitching prospects that can grow into major leaguers at around the same time as the players the team acquired this year. A winter meeting trade wouldn’t surprise me, although it might disappoint me.
Do I trust the acumen of this front office? No. A shrewd operator will be trading Alonso this winter for ready-to-contribute pitching. Whether a front-line SP or a couple of solid (young) bullpen arms; I don’t care. Is Eppler capable of this? I don’t know.
Not that I’m down on Alonso, but 1B is a position that can be manned by someone like Vientos. In the meantime, Mauricio should be spending all his time in the OF, and let McNeil with his whiffle ball bat stay put at 2B. And face it, like Lindor, we are stuck with him.
Brian J has had good points regarding the bashing of the fan base re: Vogelback. Yes, no one dimensional player should be on the roster, but at least he is hitting better then the highly touted Baty, plus McNeil, and the over-the-hill Marte.
While former Mets like Davis, Conforto and Escobar are doing fine with their teams, we have zilch in return. And pitching? Gee, wish we had a Stromen, a Wheeler, a Bassitt, a Walker…..oh no; that’s right; we gave up on them……and got nothing in return.
Yep, I don’t trust this front office.
Well said. Agree 100%…not sure if one year of Pete can bring back an MLB ready, full controllable, decent starter.
Fact check : Escobar has a 64 OPS+ with the Angels. Conforto has a 101 OPS+ with the Giants. Bassitt has a 104 ERA+ with a Blue Jays. Walker has a 109 ERA+ similar when he was a Met. These players are not earning their salaries either.
I understand that the above mentioned pitchers were not worth the salaries that they received, but this FO was stupid in the (mis)handling of them and getting nothing in return. But I never would have dumped 43+million each for aging pitchers, no matter what their pedigree was (is). And yes I know Verlander had just won the Cy Young award before signing with the Mets, but we all knew that wasn’t going to happen again. For the same amount of money (yearly avg); I would rather have three or four younger, competent arms then aging veterans.
As to the above numbers cited, Bassitt has thrown 132 innings with a 4.00 ERA, Stromen 128 innings with a 3.85 ERA, Walker 119 with a 3.99 ERA (all gone after 2022); and Wheeler (2019 trade to the Phillies!) 131 innings and a 3.71 ERA. Don’t tell me we wouldn’t have been better off with those four then the recently dumped (but not all their salary) dynamic duo.
Baty is not a core player. He isn’t a major league player at this point. He has two months to change minds.
McNeil and Marte have played themselves off as a starting players. One of them could be a bench piece but no both of them. Try to trade them. McNeil would be more valuable in the market.
Alonso’s extension should be a priority. The market for him, using Matt Olson as a comp, is 8 years/ $168-200m. That will be a hard decision for the Mets. If they don’t sign him then trade him this off season.
The Mets need three starting pitchers, two that are as good as Senga and a another average backend starter. They also need four more relief pitchers that are average in their bullpen.
Free agency, with Cohen’s money, and some trades can make the Mets competitive for a playoff position next year.
Exactly Metsense.
Let’s settle down some here. And this is coming from the Mayor of Panic City.
Some things need to be added to this conversation.
1. Steve Cohen is all in on making this entire franchise right. After decades of malfeasance by the Wilpon’s we cannot pretend this will be a snap your fingers type thing. Already, everywhere around the franchise things are improving. Look, I get it, the only place that matters is in between the lines, but to get there will require time.
2. Holding the notion that the team is somehow going to be static in the off season and not acquiring talent is an oversight. Cohen is serious about ‘25, and that wont happen without preparing in ‘24. We can all see there is a gap in pitching, starters and relievers. For the kind of money Cohen laid out for two aging stars he could have built an entire rotation and then some. My money says he will be looking for arms in FA. There are plenty of good people to choose from. Most teams aren’t stacked with a pile of aces, but very solid starters and relievers, I’d take a rotation of 2 #2s and 3 #3s rather than a highly overpaid ace and then a pile of question marks.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/12/2023-24-mlb-free-agents.html
3. We have people in the trades just made that can make a difference next season and certainly by ‘25-‘26. In particular, you can bank on Acuna replacing McNeil at 2B (who is destined as a bench guy with 300 AB/year) and Gilbert and Clifford (and Alex Ramírez) during it out for space in the OF with Nimmo.
4. Alonso is certainly replaceable, but is a team glue and fabulous ambassador. Cohen knows that, Eppler knows that. I think he gets inked to a deal. We do not want Vientos at 1B. Alonso will own every power hitting record for the team.
5. I agree with Brian that Vogelbach is low stakes so why worry too much when failure is everywhere. That said, I dont think he is a genuine option to be an impactful DH, of which there are always many to select from on short deals.
6. This season is over. I maintain it was the second Diaz was injured in the preposterously stupid WBC. Even of you dont buy that, its been pretty clear theres not been much to call good this season so that by the ASB, something had to give. I think the trade deadline activity lowers the notion of “WS or Bust” mantra for this year’s team, but hardly convicts them to tragedy. the one thing we all see is that the Mets are a light year away from the Braves, who continually trot out 95-100 win seasons. We got lucky last year, but it is a taste of the future.
7. Cohen has made it clear the Wilpon way of doing business — pretending to be competitive every year but never actually doing the things to get there while sacrificing top prospects — signals a change in operations that is desperately needed. You cant rebuild in NYC they say. Well you do need serious pruning from time to time to make things better. The farm is better, the prospect train is better, the infrastructure is better, the organization is stronger, and yes, the team will be better. The pretend competitive nature of previous teams was a smoke screen for acceptable failure — that is losing in the worst tier of the real three divisions of baseball (top 10 go to post season, bottom 10 draft high, and middle 10 suck, but just not enough and are good, but just not good enough). Purgatory is the worst IMO. Ive seen enough of the “rebuilding for it” process and 77-81 wins per year.
We all need patience. Cohen purchased a very expensive fixer upper. It’s gonna take a little time to get the thing looking shiny.
Outstanding comment Chris. Very well thought out and said.
Mr. Mayor, your honor,
What is Uncle Steve’s budget and tolerance for financial losses in 2024 to avoid fielding an “embarrassing” team? Right now, and for the balance of 2023, they are an embarrassment. We get it, the best team money could buy was a fail and he pivoted. That’s cool. But their squad is league bottom as is, they have zero pitching to help in 2024, and they are already at $220 million is 2024 salary against the $237 limit, without arb signings nicking Pete at over $20 million. So, he is on the hook for $250 million already, for this bunch and Diaz returning to “hopefully” be the same guy. Is our dear owner going to spend $350-$375 million in payroll/taxes, and again forego his #1 pick slot, to field an 80-85 win also ran? And lose another $200+ million? I am very curious. Not panicked, just curious and a teeny bit concerned.
I’m glad you asked this question, T.J. I was debating about doing an article about this but had pretty much decided against it because it’s an offseason piece and I prefer to write about the current season while games are being played.
But, people just assume that Cohen’s going to spend a lot this offseason and that they’ll be in play for every free agent and I just don’t see it. In addition to the $237 million figure you quoted, there are additional penalties for going $20 and then $40 and then $60 million beyond that initial number. I figure they’ll at least want to keep under $297 and it wouldn’t surprise me if they wanted to be under $277.
I agree that this is usually an offseason topic, but it is really front and center right now given the complete 180 by Daddy Warbucks, combined with the info in the public domain about what he told Scherzer and Verlander.
OK, he’ll hire David Stearns, he aced his SATs so we’ll all be happy. But, there are plenty of smart dudes in baseball, And, there are plenty of teams that whsold off assets for prospects. How are the Oakland As doing after selling off Olsen and Murphy and stocking prospects? What is their record? How does their farm system rank?
Without insulting my fellow Met fans, I chuckle at the “we’ll trade Marte, McNeil” and “we’ll fill the holes” this offseason. What market value do we think these guys have? Are there brain dead guys running the other teams? Check out their age, guaranteed money, and OPS+. At best they’ll get back no prospects and maybe avoid $5-8 million of sunk cost, and then they’ll need to fill more holes. What exactly is Uncle Steve’s boundary for burning money between now and late 2025/early 2026, when and *capitalize* if these kids graduate to the bigs *capitalize* and contribute to a winning team.
Hey, I’m all for Uncle Steve replacing the Wilpons. He gambled big on 2023 on behalf of the fans and lost big. Even for an uber rich guy, I give him credit. But, just because he smoked it in hedge funds doesn’t mean he is a lock to succeed in baseball. I do prefer sustainable success over any one particular season. But then, why did he overpay the old guys (and Lindor) in the first place?
If Baty, Maurico, and Vientos all wind up being Galvis-like, the amount of “unwatchable” games, as Metsense puts it, out of the next 300-400 games could be quite large.
I hear a lot of belly aching but not much in the way of solutions. What would you do?
Do you think Cohen should run up a 600-800M$ payroll given all we have now seen? There is simply no way that is going to happen. You seem only to be worried about the MLB on-field record. Cohen has said the entire franchise needs resetting. And he’s putting his $ where his mouth is. But as far as FA signings go for next year and the payroll, we already it will eclipse their record. Get used to hearing that.
What we can plainly see is that the plan was to buy short term very expensive contracts from big names and use that as a bridge until the time when the pipeline could be rebuilt and help lessen the financial burden. Unfortunately, Scherzer turned out to not be good. Verlander is fine, but lost a bunch of time to injury. By the time he got into the season, it was already in the rear view mirror. So, while there was actual and perceived value to these assets he did what he could to hurry up the pipeline reconstruction. A lot of folks are moaning about who we got back, but there’s ample articles ranking the Mets acquisitions as a big grab – only had by eating contracts.
In the past we could all see that the Wilpon’s strategy was to mercilessly pound a round stick into a square hole. And it never worked. Well Cohen was left with a round stick and the same square hole, but now is turning the square into a circle and adding to the stick so hes putting a round stick in a round hole. Not simple, fast, or cheap.
He’s paying a lot of money to expensive players. I cant see any chance of “tanking”; however, I dont see any chance of running up a tab with active contracts like this season (he still needs to pay the dead money). At least the team is out from underneath Cano’s bloated preposterous contract!
I don’t think that pointing out that Cohen’s approach failed in 2023, with good intentions, for sure, is bellyaching. Everyone makes mistakes. I don’t blame him for funding the purchase of more prospect depth after 2023 collapsed. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to question what will happen next, or be disappointed by the prospect of a couple of seasons of meaningless baseball.
What I would do doesn’t matter, because good or bad I wouldn’t have done some of the things that hit them here. But, that is in the past, and so, for what it’s worth, this is what I would do now. Deal Pete and Diaz this winter for as much high prospect talent as possible. Do not pass the salary threshold at any cost. Field the best team possible, likely a 90 loss team. Outfield will be dead. Many games will be brutal to watch. That’s what I would do, and hope just like the other bad teams that the prospects grow into a playoff team. But that will suck for the fans in the near term, and like I’ve done many times before, I’ll wait for better days.
Exactly ChrisF
TJ, I think to start out with financial losses to avoid tanking but not be really competitive is simply not how Cohen thinks. We get hes a fan like us and hates to see crap on the field. The flip side of that is he clearly is not a panic driven guy. We know he understands success simply because of his success in business. We are always about planning for the record this year and immediate success. Im certain he sees that sustained success is not generated the way the Wilpon’s did it. Mostly big budget middle of the road losers, unafraid to empty the farm system or big contracts for guys like Jason Bay, but not Mookie Betts. What did the immediate band-aid yearly solutions get this team? Not much.
It’s easy to see ‘24 as a challenge. I think it will be tough. But I cant see someone as (self-identified) competitive as him just languishing next year and losing 100 games. thats not self serving or a good business move. Re-organizing and stocking an entire franchise is going to take time after decades of rot. That is reality.
Still I expect Cohen to be serious about hiring the *right* FAs in the off season as a means to continue to balance the payroll for evenness and more predictability. Look, a guy that is prepared to drop 80M$ to restock the farm like he just did is prepared to not put a laugher on the field. I have confidence in that. I also am prepared to say ‘24 will be a year to test out the farm system adds to see who can play. Alvarez can. Baty right now is playing himself right back to AAA (where he really belonged anyway). Vientos looks shaky in limited time and who knows about Mauricio. The only way we will know if they are legit will be to play them and take the bumps and bruises. If this was a post season team, Baty would need to have been optioned already. So new faces will come, some by FA some by promotion. The team will be better than what we see today. Don’t forget, Cohen is on the books for Lindor, Diaz, and Nimmo etc for near 80M$ and it makes no sense just to throw out a team that sucks.
So I dont know what his level of payroll tolerance will be. But remember when you buys a fixer upper, the “fixer” part of the deal often looks worse before it looks better.
I don’t think the team next year will be as bad as this year. Even if we fieldvthe same team next year, it is hard to imagine that this squad will play any worse. Even if we don’t splurge on Ohtani, there are plenty of things that can be done.
First, we get Diaz back. That is huge. We rebuild the bullpen and sign or trade for some relievers. I would trade McNeil. I would also honestly trade Alonso. Do we want to pay him 20+ million per year?
As for starters, they could sign Yamamoto for $ 15 million. They could splurge on Snell. That is two starters. And who knows, maybe Acuna has an awesome spring and makes the team to play left field. Plus we have Vasil, Tidwell and Jarvis. Maybe one if them emerges.
Food for thought
Not about Metsies, but about where I had been wasting my BBBlog time.
It feels great to be the remedial student again, and not the smartest/maturest kid in the sandbox
For example, at another Mets blog, which happens to be free, I don’t think I was liked much. In truth, when reviewing my contributions, it does appear I was fairly obnoxious. Nonetheless, I could always count on a minimum of ten absurd statements per day. Not to mention all the insultis, such as calling each other stupid.
Then, of course, there were the non-stop alleged humor, for example, about how fat Volgelbach is. It might have been funny the first 100 times, but it was forever tedious afterwards.
Besides, didn’t we all love Big Sexy? And I’ll tell you what, Vogie would smoke His Bigness in a footrace.
I don’t think I’ve ever been as depressed as a Mets fan. In truth, I had tuned out starting right after 2001. Only the 2015s, with all those generational young arms, and who made the WS despite being (arguably) the fifth best NL team, recaptured my interest
Even all the way up to the beginning of June, when they were a mere 3 games behind Mylanta, I thought they had a reasonable chance.
Then June happened.
When they traded Robertson to a team ahead of them in the NLE, I realized that Vogie had sung… sorry, I’ve been infected. That is, I knew the proverbial towel had been thrown in.
What happens now? I’m too old to start over – it feels like 1979.
I realize that I just did something rare for me, which is focus on my feelings. But the above posts were nothing less than brilliant, so I can’t really add anything worthwhile. There is no 100% consensus, but all arguments were well formulated, and the civility is constant.
As it should be
Da,n right I pay Alonso 20 million a year. And one of the fist things I do is get a LFer or DH to bat fifth behind Pete. Then it’s pitching,pitching,pitching.
Sign Alonso, either this winter or next, because there are no good free agent 1Bs available in 2025 (unless you want a 37 YO Goldschmidt). 40 HR bats like Pete are hard to find.
Starting pitcher is the current Mets void. Fortunately, 2024 is a good crop of SP FAs and 2025 is better with six aces age 31 and under. Since pitchers get hurt young so often and then flame out, it seems Theo Epstein’s Cubs model of “grow the bats, buy the arms” makes the most sense in deciding whom to acquire as prospects vs. FAs.
It seems the FO’s current plan is to go for 81 wins in 2024 and try for the Division or WC in 2025. Hopefully, the farm bats can develop well in 18 months.
Speaking of the FO, I stumbled across this fascinating article about how Steve Cohen avoided indictment while his hedge fund paid over a billion in insider trading fines: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2017/01/16/when-the-feds-went-after-the-hedge-fund-legend-steven-a-cohen
We need to give Baty some more time. Last year as a rookie. Bryson Stott hit .234 with a sub .300 on base percentage. This year he is hitting over .300.