Yesterday in this space, we talked about what an unusual season it’s been for Brandon Nimmo. And we can say the same thing about Pete Alonso. Perhaps we’ve been spoiled with how consistent Alonso has been in his career, as he typically goes thru one slump of around 80 PA and then pounds the ball the rest of the year. This season, he had a bad stretch of 86 PA in late April to mid May. But then he followed up with a second slump, one even longer than the first.
From 5/30 to 7/20, a span of 140 PA, Alonso posted a .139/.243/.312 line. This corresponded to a stretch where the Mets played a bunch of teams that were over .500 for the season. It also was the time frame where the club needed to show more signs of life to convince Steve Cohen that it had a shot at the playoffs. Instead, the Mets went 15-19 while their slugger was having the longest prolonged slump of his career.
Yet while it may have come too late to save this year, Alonso has been on fire the past four weeks. In his last 110 PA, Alonso is hitting for both AVG and power. But especially power. He has a .290/.391/.720 line, with 17 of his 27 hits going for extra-bases, including 11 HR in 93 ABs. And all of this with a .262 BABIP. Now, Alonso has never been a high-BABIP player. He has a lifetime .261 mark in the category. A large part of that is the homers he hits, as HR are not included in the calculation. Still, it’s fun to think about the type of numbers Alonso could put up if he had a season with a league-average BABIP.
Alonso started 2023 on a hot streak, one thinking that it could be an MVP-type season. Even after his early slump, Alonso was hitting homers at a great rate, with 22 HR after the game on June 6. At that point, he wasn’t far from a 60-homer pace. But the following day, Alonso was hit by a pitch in his first time up and left the game. He missed the next 10 days.
At the time of the injury, it was thought that Alonso might miss 3-4 weeks. But with his club trying to remain competitive, Alonso came back as soon as he could. We were thrilled to have him back so soon but in hindsight, he would have been better off taking another week off and then playing in some rehab games.
When he got plunked, Alonso had just started his second bad stretch. You can say with homers in back-to-back games right before the injury that he was about to bust out. But even with those longballs, Alonso had just a .577 OPS in the eight games before hitting the IL. And then he came back and put up an additional 111 PA where he was awful.
However, at the end of the day, we’re in the same spot with Alonso that we always are, even if it didn’t happen the way we might expect. Currently, he has a 2.6 fWAR. FanGraphs has multiple projection systems on its site that calculates what they think the players will do for the remainder of the season. Those ROS projection have Alonso posting between 0.8 and 1.1 fWAR, which would bring his final line up to somewhere between a 3.4-3.7 fWAR. In his three full seasons before 2023, Alonso has posted fWAR marks of 4.4, 3.3 and 4.0 last year. This is who he is.
I’m a big, big fan of home runs and no one in franchise history for the Mets has ever hit home runs the way Alonso does. He provides an important bat in the middle of the order and it’s silly to pretend otherwise.
Yet important does not mean irreplaceable.
All things being equal, my strong preference is for Alonso to be on the 2025 Mets. Currently, he’s under team control thru 2024 and then eligible for free agency. The question is what does he want compared to what the team wants? Can their goals be aligned in a way that works for both parties?
My football team is and has been in a similar spot with their QB, Kirk Cousins. In his time as a starter, Cousins has put up numbers that make you take notice. Still, he’s a good but not great player. Previously, the Vikings have extended him with big-dollar deals. But this past offseason, they made his contract more salary-cap friendly but without adding any additional years. Ah, the joys of a salary-cap league!
The Vikings’ new GM wanted payroll flexibility, while Cousins wanted a long-term deal. In this case, the goals of the player and team couldn’t work, even though both sides respect one another and neither has shut the door on a reunion in 2024.
Alonso has every right to look for the biggest deal he can get. The Mets have every right not to sign someone to a deal that will take him to his late 30s. As a general rule, hitters are not as productive at age 35 as they are at age 30. Sure, there are multiple players active right now who have been very productive at ages 35 and up. That doesn’t mean that everyone will hit well at that advanced baseball age.
My hope is that the Mets can sign Alonso to a shorter deal than the eight years that Matt Olson got or even the six years that Freddie Freeman received. But there will be no complaint from me if Alonso leaves to go to a team that will give him that many years. He will have acted in his best interests while the Mets acted in theirs.
Regardless of how the long term plays out with Alonso and the Mets, my intention is to enjoy him for the remainder of the 2023 season. My hope is that he continues to hit home runs at a great rate and he can post his second 50-HR season. With 37 blasts already and with 40 games remaining on the schedule, it’s not out of the question.
Look I dont know of Pete wants to stay here or not. He aint Freddy Freeman, and wont get that money. But I dotn think 40 HR 120 RBI guys (all while doing this in NY) fall off trees.
If they let him walk, so be it. But its not just the HR, regardless of his overall defense, 90% of the defensive junk he deal with comes from wayward throws from the left side, particularly 3B. And hes darn good at it. But turning back to offense, the Mets have scored 530 runs this year, and at 91 RBI from Pete, it means hes personally responsible for 17% of the total team scoring. Whoever replaces him has some serious shoes to fill.
From a history perspective, he will own every major power record for the team. Is he irreplacable? Of course. Would it do substantial damage to the team? Quite likely.
I appreciate Alsono and his contribution to defense and especially the offense. There are a lot of first baseman comparably or better than Alonso. It would be hard to replace the homeruns and RBI’s. Would two players like Nimmo, who is not a all star, be better for the team? I’m not advocating him to be traded but they should make a decision in the off-season. Extend him or trade him for Major League talent.
The Mets should offer the Freeman deal of 6/$162m, because of inflation considerations and Alsono will only 34 years old at the end, even though Freeman is and was the better player.
These deep dives for the core players are very enlightening and the work is appreciated.
The Mets certainly can’t afford to let Pete walk. They need to do their diligence this winter – what type of contract would he sign before free agency, what can they get back in a trade, is he part of the locker room problem or solution, and when is Cohen going to go all in – 2024, 2025, 2026…
I love home grown Mets and retaining guys that prove they can play here. Olsen money would work, Lindor money won’t, even with the wealthy owner. Everyone is replaceable but if he goes I’ll miss him.
The last few words in your first graph seem pretty important to me, not just in the specific case of Alonso but pretty much everything they do this offseason.
I feel that the Mets failed Alonso, not the other way around. Alonso has no protection in the lineup and that’s what he needs! He needs someone else for the pitcher to fear. Olson has Riley, Acuna, and the catcher. The Mets don’t have anyone that. Alonso also is not a cleanup hitter, not with a .223 BA. The Mets need a DH that can punish a ball, not one that wants to set a record for walks.