It’s tough to know what’s real and what isn’t. DJ Stewart looks like a keeper with the way he’s pounding the ball right now. But is this a good player or a mediocre one who just happens to be in the middle of a six-week hot streak? Anyone who claims to know is kidding themselves. Stewart was a former first-round pick, so it’s not impossible that he was a late bloomer who just needed a chance. My opinion is that it’s much more likely to be a hot streak. But my take is to keep giving him chances until he proves unworthy of them.
But if it’s hard to tell with MLB players, it’s even harder to tell with minor league guys. Let’s look at the two main guys the Mets got from selling the old pitchers – Luisangel Acuna and Drew Gilbert. Acuna was doing great at the time of the trade while Gilbert was floundering. Since the trade the two have flipped roles. Which is the real Acuna and which is the real Gilbert?
Before the trades:
LA – .315/.377/.453, .376 wOBA, 120 wRC+, .381 BABIP
DG – .241/.342/.371, .329 wOBA, 91 wRC+, .277 BABIP
After the trades:
LA – .261/.352/.283, .307 wOBA, 85 wRC+, .308 BABIP
DG – .342/.411/.566, .426 wOBA, 161 wRC+, .393 BABIP
Clearly, life is easier when you’re running a BABIP of .380 and higher. But Gilbert is showing power with the Mets in Binghamton that Acuna didn’t with the Rangers. Gilbert sports a fine .224 ISO, one that gives you hope that even once the hits stop falling in that he’ll still be in ok shape. But in a longer stint while with the Astros, Gilbert had just a .130 ISO.
It will be curious to see where the Mets send Acuna and Gilbert to start 2024. They have so much invested in them that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them break from their normal M.O. and send them both to Triple-A.
But if they’re aggressive with these players new to the system, how will they handle Jett Williams? Since his promotion to Hi-A Willimas has put up the following numbers:
.318/.469/.580, .468 wOBA, 185 wRC+, .371 BABIP
If Gilbert’s performance in BNG is enough to get him a promotion, how do you justify not treating Williams the same way? Gilbert has more PA at his current level – the Astros gave him a quick promotion – but his numbers in Double-A prior to the trade were not good. If Gilbert’s .224 ISO since the trade is good, what does that make Williams’ .262 ISO while playing his home game in a pitcher’s park?
The Mets are going to have to decide what’s real and what isn’t with Stewart and the minor league guys noted above. The big question is if this front office has earned the benefit of the doubt with you to trust their judgment with these types of decisions. After all, it’s the same group that told us that Francisco Alvarez wasn’t ready defensively, that Brett Baty was ready offensively and that Ronny Mauricio didn’t deserve a shot until September when the club had fallen to last place.
Sometimes they make it hard to be a fan.
Brian, I have a question
My understanding is that one of the reasons BABIP became one of the “new” stats was as a way to separate the effect of defense on the stats of pitchers
But how much of the credit/demerit of BABIP should be assigned to the batter?
It works both ways, for hitters and pitchers.
David Wright ran high BABIPs on an annual basis. Ed Kranepool was typically below what was “normal” for the league. McNeil and Nimmo usually run high BABIPs while Alonso does not.
There’s an interesting article at FanGraphs about Alonso being trade bait in which his chilly .205 BABIP this season is mentioned. Further:
“I’m not actually worried about the BABIP — a number that low is almost never a real long-term characteristic for a position player with even the teensiest amount of competence at the plate.”
In interested in anyone’s opinion of that low BABIP remark
I’m more worried about Pete’s swing decisions than his BABIP
I would expect Stewart to level off to between his 2020 and2021 stats in Baltimore and be a 105 OPS+ player.
Alvarez has been hot and cold, alternating each month. Friday is September 1st so he should be on a tear this month.
Vientos appears to a Quad-A player so far.
Baty should be a major leaguer but the isn’t adjusting to the adjustments that the pitcher made. That is worrisome. He isn’t defensively a Major League third baseman.
Mauricio was spotty earlier his minor league career. The past 3 years he is a bona fide Prospect. I wonder why the Mets have waited so long to promote him? Why didn’t they move them to another position earlier like Outfield, second base or third base?
Williams has been hitting since they signed him. Play him everyday in center field. Don’t play him at shortstop anymore . I think he is to be an above average Major leaguer.
Acuna has been hot and cold in his minor league career. He should be playing second base and not shortstop anymore. Why hasn’t he started in center field at least one game in Binghamton? He has speed and a last name but needs to show more.
Gilbert is very promising as a hitter in the minor leagues. He can play all three Outfield positions. I think he is better than Acuna.
This September I would like Mauricio to start in left field, Stewart in right, Alvarez predominantly the catcher and Vientos on third base. I would like to see Baty called up also and share third base with Vientos. Vientos should get at bats at DH also, sharing the DH spot with Vogelbach. But I’m just a fan and the Mets make it hard to be a fan.
Let’s see what Stewart does in September and next spring. It would be great if he pans out and even as a backup, he has the potential to pinch hit and put one out of the park.
Cohen is a fan too. And a fan with a lot of money. He seems to now believe young athletic players is the way to go. He’ll probably find that getting younger athletic players is harder than buying older, high salaried guys. It should be an interesting two years.
Metsense I like your approach. Bring the kids up and let them play. Now is the time to see what they can do. I’d even give Diaz an inning or two in later September so we all feel good going into the off season. Clearly our prospects have been mishandled as evidenced by a number of them playing at positions that are blocked at the MLB level with none more evident than Mauricio at SS. A smart organization would have players moved off their natural positions to prepare to play elsewhere. Sometimes a change of scenario does not bode well for performance. We picked up prospects from the Rangers and Astros who were likely more excited about playing for those organizations than coming to a team is disarray. Still I’d jump them up a level in 2024 to let them stretch their wings. Don’t believe the old adage that if they fail at a higher level and have to be sent down that it will have a bad effect on them. Can’t remember the last time the Mets caught lightning in a bottle with one of their prospects the way other teams have.
As for DJ, he has been a breath of fresh air and since he can also play the field, he should start ahead of a Vogelbach at DH when not given a fielders mitt. Hoping Mauricio proves the team wrong by starting off with a bang at the plate. Then they have all off-season to find him a place on the field. If not in the field then he would make a good young strong DH. Why is is that the DH has to be an older one dimensional player? Lots to ponder as the season winds down.