The Mets 2023 season has just a handful of games remaining. Mostly it was a dark season but ending in the general area of .500 is a mere disappointment, rather than a slide into an abyss. The biggest reasons to just exhale, and prep for 2024 is the brightness of the team – the good things.
When the Braves let Freddie Freeman leave, everyone was appalled. But they signed Matt Olson, and Olson was decent in 2022, but has been nearly as good as Freeman, and is three years younger, and signed until 2029. The Braves have managed to sign their core, which is clearly dominant, for another six or more years. That seems scary.
What gets overlooked is the Mets’ core is also signed for a couple more years and some for another six or more. Despite the 2023 under-performance, mostly due to terrible personnel selection at positions that should be easy to fill, the team has enough horses for a 90+ win team, with minimal holes to fill.
Yes, the outfield corners were terrible, as were the non-Francisco Alvarez catchers. The Mets have now settled on Alvarez, which should reduce next year’s catcher performance deficit. There are no real outfield prospects in the system. Corner outfielders near average should be available on the market. And lastly, a designated hitter. The inability to put a designated hitter in the lineup who was close to average – not even above average, just close – is a catastrophic failure from the front office. These problems were apparent by mid-May, and never addressed. This is the less bright future the Mets face.
The bright part is everyone else is good. Brandon Nimmo is earning his pay and then some and signed for another six years. Francisco Lindor is the best shortstop in the league and signed for another eight years. Pete Alonso is pretty good and under team control through 2024. Which just leaves Jeff McNeil, signed for another three seasons with a team option. McNeil’s last few months have been what he was signed for. These four, and Alvarez, represent five of eight everyday players, and with just decent players at the remaining four slots should be a competitive team.
Ronny Mauricio does not appear to be overmatched. If he can stick at second, then McNeil can play third or corner outfield. There is still time for the other young players the Mets tried this past season – Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, DJ Stewart – but to compete during the time you have a good core, you have to have a short leash if these players struggle.
Yes, that is just half of the equation, but as noted earlier this week , the Mets rotation is in good shape. Kodai Senga is likely to get a few Cy Young votes. Jose Quintana has made 12 starts and has been very good. Joey Lucchesi, David Peterson, Tylor Megill, Jose Butto have all been solid, and should make for a good rotation for the next few years as well. Signing a solid innings eater to relieve some of the pressure on the younger pitchers would be prudent, but going into the season with those six should provide solid starting pitching for 2024-2026.
The bullpen has been a tremendous problem. When Edwin Diaz went down in spring training, the Mets felt it immediately, and they played 2023 like they knew they were doomed once the game got to the bullpen. It’s borne out in the numbers. The starters are several wins above average (bWAR) while the relievers are three wins below average. Admittedly, it is not easy to rely on relief pitchers as 40-50 innings are a small sample.
In 2024, Diaz will be back, and the rest of the bullpen can relax. The Mets should add some arms that throw absolute gas and go from there. There are a few losses that are Buck Showalter’s plate, but expecting him to be removed is folly.
Sometimes I am not sure if the Mets biggest loss in the Steve Cohen era is Zack Scott’s DUI.
Your last line is a good thing to discuss.
How different would things have been if both Jared Porter and Zack Scott not shot themselves in the foot and been around to shape the team’s direction? Did their dismissals cause the pitching lab to be delayed in opening? Do they fire Luis Rojas midseason in 2021? Do they make the PCA trade? Do they hire Buck Showalter? Just a whole bunch of legitimate questions that never get asked.
“There are no real outfield prospects in the system.” Really? In AA this season at Binghamton Drew Gilbert has a .984 OPS in 154 PA
It also seems likely that one of Acuna/Williams switches to 2B and the other to OF. That is unless one of them flames out…
A little optimistic,I don think too many agree that the rotation is in good shape!
This was a good submission Chris. Two starting pitchers, two Tier 1 short relievers, left fielder and third baseman. Has one the depth starters for the rotation and two join the the bullpen as long relievers. All four Baby Mets on the opening roster with three of them for the bench and Alvarez catching.
Plan A: Jordan Montgomery, Yamamoto, Wandy Peralta, Jordan Hicks, Lordes Gurriel Jr and Jeimer Candelario. The free agent players are younger and don’t have a QO so the Mets don’t lose a draft pick.
The rotation is mot in food shape. They have one solid other, Senga and just because Quintana pitched well this year doesn’t mean he will next year. They need at least two starters.
The Braves have five players with more than 30 home runs, Olson with 50+, Acuna with 40 and Albies, Reilly and Ozuna with 30+ The Mets have one, Pete, who weighed the team down this year with his paltry batting average. The Mets need a big bat in the lineup. Even with a lot of changes, They will find it challenging to keep up with the Braves.
Even with Mauricio at second and McNeil at third, you still need the big bat. I still think that Vientos is still raw to be relied on as a full time DH. Bellinger would be a good signing as he doesn’t go back to his pre 2023 slump.
I would get Acuna into the outfield in the minors next year. It’s nice when they bring young players up for a shot, but it is going to be tough to rely on Baty after his bad year.
And Lucchesi, Peterson, Butto and Megill aren’t the answer. They are most likely the 5th or 6th and 7th starters.
Let’s see what Stearns can do.
The biggest factor shaping the roster moving forward is Cohen’s checkbook. What’s the 2024 budget Uncle Steve? Many of the gang here at Mets360 are ready to push your payroll/tax up to $500 million. Pete wants 10 years. Many here want two good starters, 2 good relievers, and a big bat. Are you down with that Uncle Steve? Will parking cost $100 a game next year?
I remember a few years back, the Mets tried McNeil at 3rd base. The experiment ended when he couldn’t consistently make the throw to first. McNeil needs to stay at 2nd or the outfield. The big get is still Ohtani who should be paid as a hitter for 2024 and then as a hitter and pitcher thereafter. If 2024 is to be competitive but with reduced expectations, then the kids need to play: Baty at 3rd, Mauricio at 2nd, Alvarez as the C (which no one doubts) and Stewart in LF. I hope the Mets don’t trade Vientos, but it seems to me he has to come off the bench if they can sign Ohtani.
It appears to me that the Mets need to spend a lot for a reshaped pitching staff. Yamamoto is a must. I’m a fan of Lucchesi, but that still leaves the need for at least one top-of-the-rotation starter. I would assume that is either Snell or Gray or both if Ohtani signs elsewhere. (I’d like to see the Mets go to a 6-man rotation to help Senga and Yamamoto.
I think resigning Robertson would be a good thing. He clearly didn’t want to be traded and his results showed it. Hader will be available and he ought to be signed to complement Diaz. The latter can’t close every game.
Good analysis on McNeil. Two options that I see with him: (a) he plays second, and Mauricio starts at third, with Luis G. coming in for defense. Or (b) he plays left, Mauricio starts at second, and Baty gets another shot at third. I guess there could always be a world where they sign Turner or Candelario. I hope not, as I am suspicious of both.
I would forget about Hader, it would be extremely surprising to see Stearns sign him after weathering such a storm in Milwaukee over dealing him to SD.
They might be better served re-purposing some of their starters into relievers. Megill and Butto come to mind for this. One or two decent innings per game from one of those guys that bridges them to the 8th and 9th innings. They have one serviceable lefty in Raley, and I would give Kay a long look in ST to see if he can be the second lefty option. Ottovino is probably coming back and hopefully Diaz is fully healthy. So that’s six relievers already. They need a new set-up guy (maybe Robertson) and one more arm. Perhaps a guy like Gervase gets a look
The point being that they may have most of the answers already in-house and don’t have to commit lots of dollars and years on players whose performances can vary widely from year-to-year.
Now, if they went all-out and signed Alrodis Chapman, I wouldn’t complain! 🙂
Before the Mets make a single move, they need to prioritize getting under the cap and avoid drafting penalties. It sucks to be the only team punished every year. That’s the Pete Alonso question. Then, is Soto an option since the Padres are planing a sell off this off-season to get under $200MM? Soto, or Ohtani, pick one. Soto will be 25 years old and that isn’t a small thing, but Scott Boras is his agent and if Bryce Harper got 13 years in Philly, Soto will want 15 years…. Keep that in mind.
My point is, there needs to be a blueprint put together first and then start building. Eppler’s blueprint severely lacked and the Mets unwillingness to see the truth hurt them.
No long term mega bucks free agent contract signings!* No to Soto, no to Ohtani, and no to Alonso.
Dan Capwell had a good summary/reply regarding in house options. James T Obrien’s post was also excellent.
*Yamamoto is an exception…..if only for about Senga money or a bit more.