To date, we’ve seen 2024 Opening Day roster projections from two people here at the site – Steven and Denis. We might see one or two more, too. This piece today is going to be somewhat like that but more in the vein of what’s possible, rather than, “here’s what should happen.”
In the post-Madoff, pre-Steven Cohen days, we needed to approach this exercise with a fixed budget in place. Here in 2023, we don’t have the slightest clue where the payroll will sit when April 1 rolls around. And if you think you do – or if you think there’s no limit to what it might be – well, you’re kidding yourself.
It’s certainly possible that Cohen will run a $331 million Opening Day payroll and a $376 million Luxury Tax payroll like he did in 2023. But you have to keep a couple of other things in mind. First, when push came to shove, Cohen did not maintain that payroll throughout the season. Now, you can say that he was just being a smart businessman when he sold high-dollar players for prospects. But if you’re going to hang your hat on “smart businessman,” then you have to carry that over to the next step, too.
Cohen told the old pitchers that he wasn’t going to be all-in on free agency this coming offseason. Now, did he tell them that as a lie – or bluff, if you prefer – trying to get them to waive their no-trade clauses? Or did he tell them that because, you know, it’s true? If the smart businessman from the trade deadline isn’t going to be aggressive like he was prior to the 2023 season, shouldn’t he look to minimize the tax burden?
And again – none of us have a clue. And on top of that, it’s possible that the plan is one thing right now here while the playoffs are still underway and the plan changes a month from now, for whatever reason. One might call that flexibility. Another might call it flightiness. While none of us want strict rigidity, it seems most of us would prefer to start with a good plan and not give up on it at the drop of a hat.
If it was a smart move to acquire prospects close to the majors last year at the deadline, is it a smart move to sign free agents that will block those prospects? And what about guys already in the system who took a step forward last year? Should the Mets be unconcerned about blocking them, too?
Let’s state for the record that there’s nothing easy about how to approach this offseason. Cohen and his PoBO essentially have to thread the needle, assembling a team that won’t infuriate the fanbase, one that won’t needlessly block top prospects and one that won’t hang out above the fourth level of tax penalties and not make the playoffs.
As for taxes, the initial level is set this year at $237 million. And there are three levels after that, at $20 million intervals. Finally, if the payroll hits $277 million, that’s when draft pick penalties kick in, too.
It’s time to run some numbers. First, let’s look to assemble a team from guys who were on the roster in September. There are two columns with numbers in this chart. The first is what their actual salary is, either from a signed contract or MLBTR estimate for arb-eligible players or guesses from me for pre-arb players. The second column is their payroll number for Luxury Tax purposes. If you sign a multi-year deal, the first column is what the player gets in salary while the second is the average over the life of the deal.
Finally, we need to include a couple of extra things for the Luxury Tax payroll. The first is money being paid to players no longer on the team. That money that Cohen sent out when trading the old pitchers? Yeah, that still counts. Second, the money that goes towards player benefits also counts for Luxury Tax purposes. The figure here is what Cot’s includes for this item on their spreadsheet. Here’s our first roster:
| Name | Salary | Luxury Tax |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Alvarez | $0.80 | $0.80 |
| Omar Narvaez | $7 | $7.50 |
| Pete Alonso | $22 | $22 |
| Jeff McNeil | $10.25 | $12.50 |
| Ronny Mauricio | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| Francisco Lindor | $34.10 | $33.80 |
| Brandon Nimmo | $20.50 | $20.25 |
| Starling Marte | $20.50 | $19.50 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | $2.60 | $2.60 |
| Mark Vientos | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| Luis Guillorme | $1.70 | $1.70 |
| Tim Locastro | $1.60 | $1.60 |
| DJ Stewart | $1.50 | $1.50 |
| Kodai Senga | $15 | $15 |
| Jose Quintana | $13 | $13 |
| Tylor Megill | $0.90 | $0.90 |
| Joey Lucchesi | $2 | $2 |
| Jose Butto | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| Edwin Diaz | $14.15 | $18.60 |
| Brooks Raley | $6.50 | $6.50 |
| Adam Ottavino | $6.75 | $7.25 |
| Reed Garrett | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| David Peterson | $2 | $2 |
| Drew Smith | $2.30 | $2.30 |
| Anthony Kay | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| Phil Bickford | $0.75 | $0.75 |
| Estimated Player Benefits | $17 | |
| Tomas Nido | $2.10 | $1.85 |
| Max Scherzer | $20.83 | $20.83 |
| Justin Verlander | $20.79 | $20.79 |
| James McCann | $8 | $6.80 |
| Bobby Bonilla | $1.20 | $1.20 |
| Bret Saberhagen | $0.25 | $0.25 |
| 242.82 | 264.52 |
This doesn’t leave very much room before hitting the Luxury Tax threshold that includes a draft pick penalty. It’s one reason why the club has to do its due diligence on a potential Alonso deal. It’s the one place where the team can realize significant savings. It’s not the only area where the Mets could look to cut, though. There are a bunch of arb-eligible players here who would be making two-to-three times the minimum salary, without a ton of production to justify the extra money. Most people will immediately say Vogelbach and he’s certainly one player who fits the bill. But he’s got plenty of company, too.
Let’s say the Mets trade Alonso and make it a requirement that the team that gets the slugger also takes Narvaez. We’ll make the return here prospects, ones not making the Opening Day roster. Additionally, let’s cut some of those arb-eligible guys. This next chart won’t have a full roster. Instead, we’re just looking to see how much money would be available to fill in the blanks.
| Name | Luxury Tax |
|---|---|
| Alvarez | $0.80 |
| Nido | $1.85 |
| Vientos | $0.75 |
| Mauricio | $0.75 |
| Baty | $0.75 |
| Lindor | $33.80 |
| Jonathan Arauz | $0.75 |
| McNeil | $12.50 |
| Nimmo | $20.25 |
| Marte | $19.50 |
| Senga | $15.00 |
| Quintana | $13.00 |
| Lucchesi | $2.00 |
| Butto | $0.75 |
| Diaz | $18.60 |
| Ottavino | $7.25 |
| Megill | $0.90 |
| Peterson | $2.00 |
| Kay | $0.75 |
| Bickford | $0.75 |
| Benefits | $17.00 |
| Scherzer | $20.83 |
| Verlander | $20.79 |
| McCann | $6.80 |
| Bonilla | $1.20 |
| Saberhagen | $0.25 |
| $219.57 |
This roster has six spots to fill and roughly $50 million to go before reaching the draft pick penalty. And there’s plenty of flexibility here. Just one example is that you could target a 1B in trade or free agency and move Vientos to the open infield reserve slot. Arauz as the first backup infielder gives plenty of flexibility, specifically because of his ability to play 2B, 3B and SS. And he does it for fewer than half the dollars that Guillorme would cost.
The two charts allow you to create any starting point you wish. You can keep Alonso/Narvaez, which would leave you roughly $20 million to fill five spots before hitting the $277 million threshold.
My opinion is that a smart businessman, one who just prioritized adding to the farm system, would look to avoid draft pick penalties if he didn’t aggressively pursue a 95-win team. Yet Cohen himself said he would look to be “opportunistic” when it came to assembling the 2024 roster. The Mets got great bargains last year in free agency with Quintana and Senga. What if they get two more great bargains, regardless of what position those bargains play?
As mentioned earlier, this is not going to be an easy offseason.
Some people believe that the bottom line makes no difference to Cohen. And that was a reasonable point of view, up to the point where the news of the Carlos Correa signing broke. But once they passed on Correa – however smart that decision was – we knew that money mattered. That idea was further driven home with the deadline deals, where they got out from under at least $30 million, pretax. If money didn’t matter, the Mets would have looked to add players to bolster their alleged 15% shot of making the playoffs. But that’s not what happened.
It was perfectly reasonable for Cohen to use his wealth to chase a World Series title in the short run. It was somewhat reasonable for him to abandon that plan and embrace hoarding prospects. But where do you go from here? One could make an argument for either path. What are the chances the Mets experience the same bad luck with health and performance two years in a row? It’s easy to talk yourself into chasing 95 wins in 2024.
It’s not clear to me what the path should be this offseason. And that doubt is driven by the belief that the prospects they got when dealing the old pitchers just aren’t that wonderful. Gun to my head, my choice would be to chase 95 wins, while leaving a spot open for Jett Williams and one of the Binghamton pitchers for the 2025 roster.
So, keep Alonso for 2024, trade for Juan Soto and extend him, sign Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Spend the money to be great. If that’s the direction Cohen goes, my reaction will be cheers – along with tweaks of the nose for how the plan changed again. At the same time, if they look to get under $277 million and continue to build up the farm system, that plan will be ok, too.
The last thing any of us should want to see is a plan that strives for meaningful games in September. You know, one they would get with a payroll above $277 million but one that doesn’t even try to address all of the holes. That would be like trying to cover something up. If only there was an analogy for a piss-poor attempt to hide an obvious weakness. I’ve combed thru my files, looking over them for the answer.
How’s this: It would be like putting a Johnny Horse in front of a big pothole but only blocking half of the danger, allowing motorists to still run into the eventual sink hole. Half of the problem is unaddressed, visible for all to see.
It’s not something we should brush away lightly.
People keep saying that 40 homerun hitters don’t grow in trees. But, as you put forth in a piece a few days back, 40 homerun hitters don’t continue to hit 40 homeruns a year, unless of course they play in Wrigley Field… just saying. I don’t think Alonso resigns unless he gets a huge overpay, ands he did not hire Boras if he did not plan on using his negotiating tactics.
So overpay for Pete in 2025 or sell for 50ents on the dollar in 2024. Or do you just let him walk in 2025? Letting him walk might be the answer, if the price isn’t outrageous you sign him if it is you take the money and sign someone else’s FAs (Soto?).
What a great article. It really is a dilemma. I really dont want the burden of an Ohtani $ 600 million deal for a DH who may never start a lot of games again and breaks down after the age of 30. I much prefer Soto, who is 24 and plays the field.
I really think that the Mets will start making a bunch of trades to position themselves to win. Who they trade and who they get, depends on who is available and who the players are on both sides of the trade.
If I could pick two players to sign, I would sign Yamamoto and Jordan Montgomery, which gives us a solid rotation of Senga, Yamamoto, Montgomery and Quintana, plus a Lucchesi or a prospect like Christian Scott.
The more I read about Jett Williams, the more I like him. He could be our leadoff hitter in 2025. I really hope we trade Alonso. I don’t think he will age well and I don’t think he will be worth anywhere near what Boras will push for.
I think that Stearns has his eye on players that he will not deal and that the list includes Alvarez, Lindor, Nimmo and Senga. I think everyone else is on the table. Call it a gut feeling, but McNeil could go. Maybe at $ 20 million, Diaz could go too.
One thing that we haven’t seen the Mets produce are good young hard throwing relievers, (who can throw strikes). We need a couple of them. Maybe, we can bring in a couple via trade.
All I know, is that this offseason will be fascinating to see how Stearns reshapes the team. The Braves are the model. The developed some terrific young players and signed them to team friendly extensions. They had a plan and let Freeman walk and replaced him with Matt Olson. Stearns needs the same type of vision. Trade Alonso and have a secret plan and target on who to replace him with.
As for the baby Mets, I am only sold on Alvarez. Sure, he got worn out at the end of the year, but for a catcher, he has prolific power. Having Nido, was like having a pitcher in the lineup. Baty, Mauricio and Vientos, we have to see what they can do in the spring. I don’t see the Mets giving any of them a half season tryout. Plus a couple of them may get dealt.
All that I know is that I am really thrilled and grateful for Steve Cohen and to have a brilliant young executive in Stearns.
Mike, we did have a young hard throwing reliever who threw strikes, but we traded him for a slow DH that likes to walk.
Ah, yes Holderman for Fred Flintsone.
Mike : that was a great comment, accurate and thoughtful. It sums up this off season tasks and the dilemmas. Your Solutions are practical and realistic.
Forgive my ignorance here, but if the Mets get one of the first six picks in the lottery, isn’t that pick protected? And IIRC correctly that lottery occurs during the winter meetings, yes?
A baseball draft pick isn’t nearly as valuable as an NFL pick. Justin Dunn, Gavin Cecchini, Mike Pelfrey, Philip Humber, and Lastings Millege are all guys the Mets drafted with one of the first 20 picks of the draft in the past 20 years. While all played in the majors, none of them made much of an impact. There have been some hits (Nimmo, Conforto, Harvey) but far more busts than bona fides. And the Mets are far from the only team with such a poor record. Plus even the most advanced prospect needs 2-3 years of minor league seasoning before they are ready. By that time Nimmo, McNeil, Lindor, Senga, Diaz, and Alonso (if he stays) will be on the downside.
I suspect that the Mets will make another push this offseason, just perhaps not as splashy as last year’s. This includes not trading Pete, going all-in on Yamamoto and then some mid-level pitcher signings.
If they get a top-six pick thru the lottery then yes, it’s protected and the penalty will occur with their second pick, instead.
It’s easy to point out first-round picks that didn’t work out. The draft is hardly an exact science. But if all you do is focus on the misses and ignore the hits, regardless of the subject matter, you come to the conclusion that everything stinks and nothing matters.
What hurts the Mets is not how they do with draft picks – which they’ve done pretty good considering how rarely they get a top-10 pick – it’s that they’ve had such little success with international free agents, especially if we ignore players from Japan and focus on Latin America. While seemingly every team can point to a Ronald Acuna Jr. or Juan Soto or Julio Rodriguez or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr. — the best the Mets have done was Jose Reyes, who reached a 4-WAR season just 4X in his 16-year career (Acuna has done it 4X in 6 years and one year he was hurt and the other year was the Covid season) and he debuted 20 years ago.
So you kind of just made my point. Losing a top draft pick in baseball is far less consequential than say losing your #1 or #2 pick in the NFL draft. In other words, the Mets should go ahead and outspend, if necessary for the players they want, and if they drop 10 spots in the draft, no big deal. And if the ping pong balls are favorable, it doesn’t matter!
FWIW, I agree that the better value is usually found in the lower rounds. Mike Piazza is the famous case in point, but there have been some other good ones: deGrom was a 9th round pick, and here are some more: https://www.mlb.com/news/best-late-round-picks-in-draft-history.
I do want to thank you for opening up this site. I will become a subscriber, as this is the most intelligent and interesting Mets site on the web, hands down.
I have no idea who you’re agreeing with but it’s certainly not me. It’s wonderful to point out success stories from later rounds. But it’s like pointing out guys who bought a lottery ticket and won a million dollars. Yeah, those people exist but they’re the extreme minority. You can’t hold up the exception and think that proves anything.
Here’s a study that shows the hit rate for draft picks.
And this study was done with guys drafted from 1996-2011. Drafting has gotten better since then, so the success rate for first-round picks is likely even higher than it is here. And how is the first round better? By drafting guys who in the past who would have gone lower.
You’re absolutely better with a first-round pick than any other round. And you’re better off with a pick in the top half of the first round rather than the bottom half. Just look at the Mets. Here’s the guys they’ve drafted since 2000 with picks 1-15: Phil Humber, Jared Kelenic, Matt Harvey, Mike Pelfrey, Michael Conforto, Kevin Parada, Dominic Smith, Brett Baty, Gavin Cecchini, Lastings Milledge, Brandon Nimmo, Jett Williams and Scott Kazmir. Of those 13 picks, 11 played in the majors and the two that didn’t are top-five prospects in the system.
Here’s the guys taken from 16-30 in the same time frame: Billy Traber, Ike Davis, Aaron Heilman, PCA, Justin Dunn, David Peterson and Reese Havens. The success story in this group is Ike Davis and his career total of 5.8 bWAR. Four guys from the top group exceeded that bWAR and Pelfrey tied it.
A drop of 10 picks in draft order is huge and no organization would treat it like it didn’t matter.
Brian, that is spot on regarding international players.