We all want the Mets to be active in free agency and begin the 2024 season with five starters capable of making 30 starts, providing they remained healthy. We thought that’s what the Mets had coming into 2023 but remaining healthy – and still on the team past the trade deadline – proved easier said than done. But how realistic is it for teams to have five pitchers make 30 starts? Most of you reading this will probably say to yourself – not likely at all. If that’s the case, why make it a goal before the season starts?
Focusing on full-season results and combining starts for two and three-team players, there were 117 starting pitchers who threw at least 100 IP, with the fewest starts being 19 by the Yankees’ Domingo German. If those were distributed evenly among the 30 clubs, that means that teams would have roughly 3.5 starters to throw at least 100 IP. Since a team can’t have half a pitcher – in this exercise, at least – perhaps we should say that they would have either three or four starters reach this threshold.
The 2023 Mets had four – Kodai Senga, Tylor Megill, Max Scherzer and David Peterson. Clearly, they weren’t the four pitchers the Mets would have preferred but they had four nonetheless. And that was with the injuries and the trades. For what it’s worth, the Mets had two more starters with IP totals in the 90s. Those six pitchers combined for 687.2 IP. Is that good? Off the top of my head, that seems like a middle-of-the road total.
You might think it’s closer to a 30th ranking than one that checks in at 15th. My reason for thinking differently is the knowledge that only 117 starters reached the 100-IP threshold and only 56 starters threw at least 150 IP. Senga’s 166.1 IP wasn’t a high total – 39th overall – but there were many teams who had multiple pitchers with better totals.
The Blue Jays had four, the Phillies and Mariners had three and the Braves, Orioles, D’Backs, Pirates, Twins and Marlins each had two pitchers with more IP than Senga. Those nine clubs likely had more innings from their top six starters than the Mets did. After that, especially with the Mets having four starters with at least 100 IP, it seems unlikely that there would be 13 other clubs to surpass the Mets’ total from their top six. Which would put the Mets closer to middle of the pack than the worst.
Even if you’re not sold on that logic, we can probably agree that it makes little difference in the quantity if the quality isn’t there. It’s great the Megill came out from being a depth starter at the beginning of the year to toss 126.1 IP. It’s not so hot that he had a 4.70 ERA in those innings. Same for Peterson and his 103 IP/5.24 ERA combo.
Now we have to ask if this is the inevitable result when depth starters are asked to give more than they’re capable or if they recovered from early troubles to pitch well later in the season. And perhaps we should re-phrase it from “depth starters” to Megill and Peterson. Are those two nothing more than depth or are they capable of being in a rotation, with ERAs much closer to 4.00 than 5.00 in 150 or so IP?
Megill had a 5.64 ERA after his start on 8/17. In his final eight games he had a 3.00 ERA in 45 IP. Peterson had an 8.08 ERA after his start on 5/15. After a trip to the minors, Peterson came back to post a 3.38 ERA in his final 72 IP. Are 45 IP enough to make you – or more importantly, the Mets’ brass – feel good about Megill? How about the same question with Peterson and his 72 IP?
And as long as we’re asking that question – How about 37 IP and a 3.16 ERA for Jose Butto and 46.2 IP and a 2.89 ERA from Joey Lucchesi?
The people who believe the Mets are going to operate with an unlimited budget feel like the club is going to sign/trade for three starting pitchers this offseason. The more moderate fans expect the club to sign two starters. But knowing that most clubs have three or four starters to reach 100 IP, combined with the knowledge that Megill and Peterson have reached that threshold already, would it be unreasonable to import just one starter and use additional money to address the offense?
If we count Jose Quintana and Senga as pitchers to top the rotation, and add a free agent pitcher to give the club a strong trio, do they need to add more? Of course, you want as many good players as possible and if the team is going to have a squad with a payroll well north of $300 million, then go wild and sign as many top-tier starters as you can.
But if you’re one of those people who are 100% convinced that the Mets will import three new SP this offseason, try to look at this from a theoretical point of view. A thought exercise, if you will. Did two pitchers from the quartet of Butto, Lucchesi, Megill and Peterson – you pick which ones – give you the faith that the Mets could write them in for a combined 45-50 starts in the neighborhood of a 4.25 ERA?
My opinion is that it’s time or the Mets to fish or cut bait with these hurlers. And what better time to fish than in a season where they’re looking at competing for a playoff spot, rather than going all-in on the postseason? Butto will be in his age-26 season in 2024, with Megill and Peterson in their age-28 seasons and Lucchesi at 31. Pretty much, the future is now for this group.
If two of those four enter the rotation, that leaves the remaining two to be depth starters. They can be joined by Denyi Reyes and Mike Vasil, who logged 73 IP at Triple-A last year and would likely be the first hurler among the guys yet to appear in the majors to get a shot. That’s nine guys. In 2023, with all of the injuries and with the trades, the Mets used 10 different starters.
The past two seasons, the Mets have opened the year with two of their projected starters on the IL. This year’s rotation should be younger than those versions, especially if the pitcher they add is Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who will be in his age-25 season in 2024. Hopefully, greater youth will result in fewer days lost to injury for the starters.
To me, the main fault in this plan is that if they sign Yamamoto, they’ll have a strong reason to use their pitchers every six days, rather than every five. A lot of times, they’ll be able to do this with off days built into the schedule. The rest of the time, they’ll have to be creative. Maybe one of the two pitchers from the 2023 depth starters who doesn’t make the rotation can be kept stretched out as a starter in Syracuse, ready to come up when the schedule demands it. That pitcher, along with Vasil, should give the club cover for this purpose. They can also use the remaining depth starter as a long man out of the bullpen, much like the 2022 club did with Trevor Williams.
That leaves what to do with Reyes. My opinion is that he should be used as a reliever much more so than the others, making him the last of the nine-named pitchers to be used as a starter.
My opinion is that if the Mets are to make three main imports – say, salaries with an AAV of eight figures – to the roster this offseason, they would be best served by having them be a SP, an OF and a DH. Some would fret that this would make the SP too thin. And maybe it does make the team need a bit better luck in the injury department. Ultimately, the offense needs more help than the rotation in my eyes. Unless you think that Brett Baty, Starling Marte and DJ Stewart can all provide much better production going forward than they did in 2023.
Ive been perplexed and vascillating on just how to interpret the nuggets of wisdom we know about the plans for next season. Im prepared to admit, I think we as a fan base know next to zero, including less than zero about what Stearns and Cohen have mapped out.
But taking whatever the double speak we heard from Scherzer’s relay of the plans (contemporary of mid summer and without Stearns), lets go with the prepping for 25 with a hope to be competitive. Given that says as little as possibly imaginable, and right in line with something Alderson would puke out, lets take it at face value.
I see two paths here. Lets staff the team with competent MLB players that may have untapped upside and see if something greater congeals and shows partocular promise for the future. Im thinking a number of young faces in everyday spots and a handful of 1-3 war FAs to fill in all the holes.
Path two is to look at gambling on using lesser folk in a number of spots (like say Vogelbach at DH) and going after only a couple top dogs, with the notion of expanding that group in 25 with more top FAs. So here you get one of Yamamoto, Ohtani, Soto etc and hope there is enough strength added to make the team competititve.
The thing is, Im not sure Path 1 really preps the team for 25, and I dont think you can sell game changer types on losing on 24 with a plan for 25. Even ok players like Scherver and Verlander werent on board for that.
So getting to the article, I guess Id see if it were possible to land Yamamoto. I dont see much salvation in the back half dozen of pitchers the Mets can use, so it would be a real lean starting rotation hinged on total health of 3 pitchers.
Does this mean Stearns may have more leeway in hiring? December should be very interesting.
Thanks Chris.
I think it would be easier to convince Soto of a plan for ’25 than it would be for Ohtani or one of the U.S. free agent pitchers. But if you were going to “sell” any player on that plan, what would the pitch be?
It would have to be some version of “it’s not as bad as it seems.” Even after the trades of MLB players for prospects, the Mets were a .500 team over a significant part of the year. From 8/13 to the end of the season, 45 games or slightly more than 1/4 of the season, the Mets went 23-22. And that’s with no-name starters, a crappy bullpen and breaking multiple rookies into the lineup.
Alvarez and Mauricio takes steps forward, we add competent relievers into the mix and combine that with you – Star Player X – and that’s a playoff team.
As always Brian, you write great articles. Cohen wants to win and I see them adding two starters. I do notvwant a burdensome Ohtani contract.
What the wild card is, what trades does Stearns make? That can really change the equation.
Maybe we get a big surprise promotion from the farm like a Christian Scott or a Jett Williams.
Thanks for the kind words!
I’m a big Jett Williams fan but it’s hard for me to see him making much of an impact in 2024. It’s not out of the realm that one of the BNG pitchers from 2023 factors into things. Could be Scott or Dominic Hamel, who had such a great finish to his year.
Bingo! It was the hitting! A DH and an OFer makes a lot of sense,especially if one is a solid #5 batter behind Pete. How important are starters in 2024? How many starters go 5 innings? Many starters aren’t allowed to face a lineup three times. Bullpen games in the playoffs are not uncommon. Even Aces seldom get out of the seventh inning.
Yamamoto is the one SP. Pop him in the rotation for the next 8 years and watch him and Senga dominate a series. I’m ok with 2 of the 4 in the rotation (Prefer Luchessi and Peterson).
THe OF/DH problem is real. I don’t know what Ohtani is worth as just a hitter but if Cohen wants to import then entire Japanese team I say go for it. They are the best in the world after all.
I cannot believe if the Mets put a package together of Peterson,Baty, It’s a one of the kids they just got in their trades and go after the best young pitcher preferably on the 24 who is ready to be in the majors or may be broke in already we should be able to make a deal like that Go sign Yamamoto add him to Senga and Quintana and then you have the other four to fight it out for the last spot or just go with six starters keeps everybody fresh and of course the one big move sign Ohtani which solves your DH problem and next year pitching and DH at this point you were only signing two free agents if you really wanna go nuts I would sign Bellinger and put Ronny at third base put Jeff back at second resign Stewart in case Starling Has any problems time to start getting younger and better
There are drawbacks to Ohtani:
1. He is also entering his 30 year old season and hasn’t really been a .300 hitter. He’s actually closer to .260-.270 making him a comp to Alonso.
2. He isn’t pitching this year.
3. A QO which means the Mets will lose a high pick, a five rounder for being over the cap, and $1MM in international free agent money.
Want to wait for Soto?
What are the odds that Ohtani doesnt provide much in the way of pitching in the next five years? Probably pretty high. He already has shown signs of fragility. How will he age in his thirties? All this adds up to a DH not worth anywhere near $ 500 million. I’ll take Bellinger over Ohtani for 30% of the price. Bellinger also plays the field and is very good defensively.
I am a moderate that wants two young starting pitchers obtained of the caliber of Montgomery and Yamamoto. The SP5 would be winner of Lucchesi, Butto, Peterson and Megill. The loser gets a spot as a long reliever in the bullpen. The other two goes to Syracuse as depth starters. All four of them have options. The Mets will have good depth starters. Reyes doesn’t have an option left.
The Mets need to get another starting outfielder (Gurriel). Instead of an exclusive DH, Stearns should sign Candelaria (3B-1B) and change up the DH each game. These two free agents would supplement the offense and not break the bank. The money should be invested for the two starting pitchers if they want to contend for the playoffs in 2024.
Arizona won 85 games. How hard is it to be a playoff team now? Not very, ten teams usually refuse to even compete. As long as the Mets do not do another fire sale at the deadline they will have a shot. Being great is no longer needed, just be okay, and get hot.
That’s baseball now.
There is one problem with that assessment. The NL East is a tough place to do business, so if you cant climb over the Phillies and Braves, the competition is quite hard for the last WC spots and its against all divisions. I dont see the Mets at this point as projectable as better than the Braves, 2022 regardless. And its pretty clear the Phillies are better than Mets fans generally assume. Ultimately with all divisions at play for the final WC spots its more competitive than 85 wins.
Right now the Mets have 2 decent starting pitchers and a worn out pen full of people that cant throw strikes. 85 wins wont come easy.
The Marlins beat out “all this competition” for the Wild Card with a whopping 84 wins. Not my opinion. A fact. The playoffs were expanded and this is how it works now.
sure, but there were 5 teams ahead of the Mets even still.
Two things:
1. if the 2022/2023 Mets taught us anything, it’s that injuries + bad starts can derail any team at any point
2. Even assuming that the sun keeps shining on the Braves and Phillies in the regular season, that still leaves two Wild Card spots, as one of those charmed teams will win the division.
For sure. But when you start in with the WC spots you face the capricious nature of how teams do in other divisions which are not as strong as the NL East. All Im saying is that 85 wins is not some sore of preordained easy outcome for most teams. In the last 23 years, the Mets have had 85+ wins in only 7 seasons – a mere 30% of the time.
Starting pitching costs a fortune. The Mets are only trying to contend in 2024. Payroll is an issue in 2024 even for Uncle Steve. The next crop of prospect starters is getting closer. All of this adds up to winning in Yamamoto, finding a good bat, and finding a quality pen arm that can help beyond 2024. Signing 1 starter makes perfect sense, but that needs to be a quality starter projected to be good for 3 years at least.