News broke that the Mets were going to hire David Stearns on September 12 and his hiring became official on October 2. Stearns did not “officially” fire Buck Showalter because he was still under contract to the Brewers and allegedly had no contact or influence on what happened with the Mets from 9/12 to the end of the season.
So, what has Stearns done since joining the club? Here are the moves listed on ESPN’s transactions page, broken down into categories and ignoring activations from the ILs:
Major League/ 40-man additions – Zack Short, Austin Adams, Joey Wendle, Tyler Heinenman, Cooper Hummel, Luis Severino, Michael Tonkin
Minor League additions – Nehomar Turmero, Deivy Victora, Penn Murfee, Carlos Guzman, Cole Sulser, Joseph Yabbour, Kyle Crick, Andre Scrubb, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Ammons, Taylor Kohlwey
Major League/40-man subtractions – Anthony Kay, Adam Ottavino, Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod, Trevor Gott, Luis Guillorme, Daniel Vogelbach, John Curtiss, Tim Locastro, Denyi Reyes,
Minor League subtractions – Elieser Hernández, Penn Murfee
That’s a non-insignificant amount of turnover, even if very few of the names are exciting. When you have fewer than 30 names on the 40-man roster, there’s a lot of depth you need to acquire. The Mets now have 34 players on the 40-man, still leaving plenty of room for bigger-name additions. And there’s still several guys that could be cut from the 40-man if need be.
There’s no order that you have to do things in. Stearns has focused more on depth so far than impact players. It’s not glamorous – just necessary. It’s fair to ask if Short and Wendle are better than Guillorme and Danny Mendick. Same thing goes with Hummel being better than Locastro.
But the real important question is if Adams, Tonkin, Guzman, Sulser, Crick and Scrubb are better than the stiffs like Brigham, Coonrod and Curtiss from a year ago. Stearns needs to assemble a better bullpen that Billy Eppler did. Tonkin is capable of going multiple innings at a time, if not at an especially impressive rate. Crick had a 124 ERA+ in his first 147.1 IP in the majors, if not quite as effective the past two seasons. But at least these two have something tangible to recommend them, unlike last year’s option-reliever crew.
With the possible exception of Severino, not one of these additions from Stearns so far looks like they have even a 10% chance of producing a 1.0 fWAR in 2024. It will be good when the Mets add those types of players this offseason.
Stearns was the guy pretty much everyone wanted to come take over. I am taking a relaxed view of this offseason and trusting that he knows more than a few things I will never know about any of these players. I do like that he’s taking care of the lower end of the roster to start with. Just feels like he’s saving the big chips for a couple big signings, understanding that Yamamoto is the big pivot point and plans b, c, and d, just have to wait until we know if plan a is going to happen or not.
Yup, it’s too early to make judgments about Stearns. Most other teams haven’t done much, and there are lots of free agents out there.
I am more optimistic about 2024, since Stearns and Cohen flew to Osaka to meet up with Yamamoto, his mom, Senga’s interpreter, et al.
Going into the off season, the Mets needed two starting pitchers better than Quintana, to relieve pitchers better than Smith, and an everyday outfielder. So far he hasn’t obtained any players on the checklist. He did obtain three former All-Stars in past years coming off horrible seasons. I thought Cohen said hope isn’t a strategy. Apparently Stearns thinks different. Stearns did embrace the concept of a long reliever in the bullpen when he obtained Tonkin but don’t think he is any better than internal players Lucchesi, Peterson, Megill and Butto that could have fit the role. It is early so there’s no need to stress. I think that Stearns missed an opportunity to sign Eduardo Rodriguez who only cost 4/$80m.
Stearns has said that depth is important, and that means multiple layers of depth at every level.
While Tonkin may or may not be an upgrade over Lucchesi, the reality is that neither of them is a sure thing. Having more of them give the team a plan B, C, and D in case plan A fails. He also needs Butto and Megill in the minors as starting pitching depth right now (Lucchesi is out of options).
I agree with you completely on Eduardo Rodriguez.
Spotrac has Lucchesi with 2 options. ??
FanGraphs lists him with one option remaining.
Once a player is placed on the 40-man, he can be optioned three times. Lucchesi made his MLB debut in 2018, starting the year in the majors. But the Padres sent him down after his start on 7/11. But they brought him back up before 20 days, meaning he did not burn an option in ’18.
He was in the majors/IL for all of 2019, 2020 and 2021 – no option used.
He pitched in the minors for more than 20 days in both ’22 and ’23 so that should be two options used there.
It’s possible he has two options left, as there are times when they give a club a fourth option. I’m unsure of the circumstances around that but it’s rare and I haven’t heard of that with Lucchesi. Given what FG lists and my understanding of the option rules, I believe he has one left.
With fewer than 5 years of MLB service time, Lucchesi cannot refuse an option assignment.
I see the [possible] discrepancy… In 2020 and 2021 he was optioned to the Alternate Training Site. I was counting those as options. Perhaps they are not.
The 4th option can be enacted either in cases where the player has fewer than 5 years total professional experience (minors an majors combined); or to players who lost an entire minor league season to injury. In either case the club has to apply to MLB for that 4th option.
Perhaps the biggest addition is the subtraction of so many marginal players, many of whom had no business being on an MLb roster, let alone in a starting lineup. Some of that came about because of the deadline deals, some of it was because of many injuries to the pitching staff and some to plain old bad acquisitions. If Stearns is a great evaluator of talent than you have to hope that the new cast assembled will give the Mets upgrades in the pen and utility spots. We all know that additions to the starting pitching staff are yet to be made and Yamamoto is the big fish. Hard to believe we will be outbid for him but stranger things have happened. For an owner who ponied up over $40 million per each for two pitchers closing in on Medicare age, Yamamoto, Montgomery and others are not beyond reach. No thanks on Blake Snell ho does not go six and has had mostly down years as a starter aside from his two Cy Young awards. Who will be the position player who moves the needle forward? Why not take a chance on Cody Bellinger who checks several boxes and who we know has experience to excel? Let’s get Ohtani off the board so the fun can begin.
Well, I agreed with the comments up in this sense.But, I think if Mets count with Yamamoto reallying with the team..Also two more relievers than can be Megil and Paterson..
The time can begin with more talented youngers than can doing excellent jobs.Sure,by far. And the Mets have.
I’m committed to waiting for the final roster before jumping to judgement. But some moves are puzzling. Especially the bullpen. Aside from the two anchors – Diaz and Raley – there are now 9 relievers on the roster to fill 6 spots. 5 of those pitchers are out of options, so they would likely fill out most of the remaining spots. Yet most of them are marginal, or quad-A types. So the issue is that if any of these guys perform badly an need to be replaced, they have to be designated for assignment. If they then get claimed, or go unclaimed and elect free agency, the depth disappears.
Joey Wendle also puzzles me. He’s 33, with his bat on a severe decline for two years now (just .554 OPS last year). Garrett Hampson and Nick Senzel are each 4 years younger, hit better, and still play good defense at multiple positions. Both signed with other teams for similar or less money than Wendle.