The Mets have yet to sign a high-profile free agent, although few doubt that they will. Currently, the biggest name they’ve brought in is Luis Severino. Unfortunately, it’s not 2018, which was Severino’s last big year. Which makes signing the former Yankee a dumpster-dive move. The question is: How likely is a dumpster-dive move to pay off?
Before we can examine this question, we need to define some terms. Let’s use a minimum of three years since a player was last good as what qualifies a move as a dumpster-dive one. Okay, how do we define good? Let’s limit this discussion to pitchers and let’s declare that they had to pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title and in that season, they had to have posted at least a 110 ERA+. For the record, these definitions are arbitrary and you could come up with different ones and also have a valid study of the issue.
So, how does Severino land with our definitions? With his last year meeting our two benchmarks being in 2018, that’s five years since he was last “good.” And in that 2018 season, Severino had 191.1 IP and a 124 ERA+, easily surpassing the minimums in both categories.
This study used MLB.com and looked at the three previous free agent classes before the current one. My hope was to get a sample of at least 30 players and we wound up with 40, so it’s a decent-sized pool of players to examine. However, three players who met the minimum qualifications were discarded from the study. They were: Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw and Adam Wainwright.
Hill was eliminated due to the fact that he only met the minimum requirements once, back in his age-27 season. No one signs Hill in his 40s hoping to get anything remotely like what he did back in 2007. Kershaw and Wainwright are one-team players who aren’t really dumpster-dive signings. If you disagree with the decision to eliminate any or all of these players, you can look up their stats and add them in yourself. In the six combined years that they would have added, only Wainwright in 2021 repeated both of our minimum requirements.
Here are the results:
| Name | Last Good Year | IP | ERA+ | Signed for | IP | ERA+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Kluber | 2018 | 215 | 150 | 2023 | 55 | 65 |
| Jameson Taillon | 2018 | 191 | 122 | 2023 | 154 | 93 |
| Johnny Cueto | 2016 | 219.2 | 144 | 2023 | 52.1 | 75 |
| Zack Greinke | 2019 | 208.2 | 154 | 2023 | 142.1 | 87 |
| Michael Wacha | 2015 | 181.1 | 116 | 2023 | 134.1 | 127 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 2016 | 183.2 | 155 | 2023 | 33.1 | 78 |
| Trevor Williams | 2018 | 170.2 | 126 | 2023 | 144.1 | 78 |
| Zach Davies | 2017 | 191.1 | 112 | 2023 | 82.1 | 62 |
| Mike Clevinger | 2018 | 200 | 143 | 2023 | 131.1 | 118 |
| Alex Cobb | 2017 | 179.1 | 115 | 2022 | 149.2 | 106 |
| Alex Wood | 2014 | 171.2 | 128 | 2022 | 130.2 | 77 |
| Danny Duffy | 2016 | 179.2 | 123 | 2022 | DNP | |
| Garrett Richards | 2014 | 168.2 | 138 | 2022 | 42.2 | 76 |
| Corey Kluber | 2018 | 215 | 150 | 2022 | 164 | 84 |
| Matt Harvey | 2015 | 189.1 | 140 | 2022 | DNP | |
| Zach Davies | 2017 | 191.1 | 112 | 2022 | 134.1 | 98 |
| Michael Wacha | 2015 | 181.1 | 116 | 2022 | 127.1 | 127 |
| Jose Quintana | 2016 | 208 | 126 | 2022 | 165.2 | 137 |
| Aaron Sanchez | 2016 | 192 | 142 | 2022 | 60 | 60 |
| Carlos Martinez | 2017 | 205 | 116 | 2022 | DNP | |
| Chris Archer | 2015 | 212 | 121 | 2022 | 102.2 | 86 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 2018 | 192.2 | 116 | 2022 | 47.1 | 61 |
| Noah Syndergaard | 2016 | 183.2 | 155 | 2022 | 134.2 | 102 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 2015 | 169.1 | 117 | 2021 | 104.2 | 102 |
| Jose Quintana | 2016 | 208 | 126 | 2021 | 63 | 69 |
| Kevin Gausman | 2016 | 179.2 | 119 | 2021 | 192 | 147 |
| Robbie Ray | 2017 | 162 | 163 | 2021 | 193.1 | 157 |
| Ivan Nova | 2011 | 165.1 | 116 | 2021 | DNP | |
| Jake Arrieta | 2017 | 168.1 | 124 | 2021 | 98.2 | 57 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 2014 | 199.2 | 141 | 2021 | 5.2 | 55 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 2017 | 201 | 152 | 2021 | DNP | |
| Aaron Sanchez | 2016 | 192 | 142 | 2021 | 35.1 | 136 |
| Chris Archer | 2015 | 212 | 121 | 2021 | 19.1 | 88 |
| Garrett Richards | 2014 | 168.2 | 138 | 2021 | 136.2 | 96 |
| Tyson Ross | 2015 | 196 | 114 | 2021 | DNP | |
| Felix Hernandez | 2014 | 236 | 170 | 2021 | DNP | |
| Jimmy Nelson | 2017 | 175.1 | 126 | 2021 | 29 | 229 |
| Michael Wacha | 2015 | 181.1 | 116 | 2021 | 124.2 | 80 |
| Alex Wood | 2014 | 171.2 | 128 | 2021 | 138.2 | 108 |
| Trevor Cahill | 2010 | 196.2 | 138 | 2021 | 37 | 65 |
The first thing that jumps out is that there are a bunch of repeat names on the list. Archer, Davies, Kluber, Quintana, Richards Sanchez, Syndergaard, Wacha and Wood all made the list more than once. It just goes to show that teams are willing to give multiple shots to guys who were once good. The ability to be a successful pitcher in the majors is a rare thing.
Out of our 40 seasons in the above chart, only three times did a pitcher bounce back from last being “good” over three years ago to being “good” immediately after signing as a free agent – Quintana in ’22, along with Gausman and Ray in ’21. Both Gausman and Ray met the ERA+ requirements in the Covid year of 2020 and likely would have met the innings requirement if it was a normal season, which would have made them ineligible for the list in 2021.
But we’re counting them here. So that gives us a 7.5% chance for a free agent pitcher to bounce back to “good” levels after not reaching them for at least three seasons. If you want to include Hill, Kershaw and Wacha, too, it gives us an 8.7% chance.
Perhaps you feel like these standards for “good” are too tough. If instead we say that a successful outcome is to pitch at least 100 innings, along with a 100 or better ERA+, that gives us 10 positives out of 40, for a 25% chance of achieving the desired result.
This is not quite what I expected. If asked before running the numbers, my guess is that the success rate would have been under 5%. Still, let’s not pretend that the 25% success ratio in our easier definition is a good gamble on an eight-digit contract for one year with no team option, like the Severino deal.
As it gets proven year after year after year, we never know exactly what’s going to happen when the real games are played. Guys improve, guys get worse. They get injured and they recover. They have seasons with great fortune and ones where the gods are seemingly conspiring against them. At the end of the day, the best we can do is play the odds and understand that not every move with the odds in our favor will pay off as expected.
None of us have any divine knowledge of how Severino will perform this year. My opinion is that this signing is an extremely risky one, with the odds stacked against it working out the way the Mets hope it will. How would you feel if Severino, who last year had 89.1 IP and a 65 ERA+, turned in a year like David Peterson’s 2023, where he posted 111 IP with an 84 ERA+? Because that’s about where the over/under line should be, at least in my mind.
For what it’s worth, Peterson had a 1.0 fWAR last year, while Severino had a (-0.6) mark.
Had a decent year in 2022 before getting injured. Not enough innings to qualify but a era+ of 124 over 100+ innings
Again; my previous comment that Lucchesi will have a “better” year, remains. Maybe he (Severino) will do what Peterson did last year…..bet you though, that they don’t send him down (they probably can’t unless he volunteers) no matter if he does significantly worse.
But hey Brian, it’s the Christmas season. Lets wish Severino a Happy 2024!
Oh, without a doubt! Once they put on a Mets uniform, the hope is they have their best year yet.
It all points to the fragility of MLB pitchers and the reason why the average MLB career is around 6 years. Trying to recapture the magic that a player once showed sometimes is about successfully overcoming an injury, or a change of scenery, or a pitching coach with a new approach. That’s what we hoped for from Quintana before he got hurt and he showed that he could come back and pitch effectively near the end of last year’s lost season. What I hope for with Severino is that he will be this year’s Taiyuan’s Walker. After being injured for much of 2018 and 2019 and 2020, Walker won 7 games in 2021 with us and was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA in 2022. No one wanted to resign him for the many millions it would take for a journeyman starter, but the Phillies took a shot and he won 15 games last year. His 4.38 ERA was substandard but he was successful because the Phillies could do something the Mets could not – score runs. He ran out of gas near the end of the season as he once did with us after a hit first half.
I am hoping that Severino, who I would slot as a #4-#5 starter, is a little bit healthier and will rebound with a change of scenery.
I think Severino is a good gamble on a one year deal. Worst case besides getting cut is he becomes the long man in the bullpen or he gets cut.
It’s December 10th, still waiting for Stearns to sign an impact player. Let’s hope we get Yamamoto this week.
Some people think there’s no such thing as a bad one-year deal.
I get the sentiment. But if Severino duplicates what he did a year ago, then this is a bad deal. Everything is different now because our owner can afford anything. Still, I don’t like making moves that the risk=reward equation is out of whack. Yeah, you need some risk. But it’s fair to wonder if this is the player and the contract you want to place your risk in.
Dodgy for sure. Im in complete agreement with you Brian.
To my this really brings to light the problem of paying starting pitchers more and more, for throwing less and less innings. Someone is gonna open their eyes and see 15-17 outs per game is north 20M$ + per year. Return on investment is very low. I dont really get it.
In fantasy baseball, there was a thing several years ago not to pay more than $1 for a SP and instead spend your auction money to load up on offense and RP. It’s certainly something I’d like to see tried by a team IRL. The Nats lost 91 games last year and don’t figure to break .500 this year, either. They could try something like this – outside of the dead money already committed. And they’re not the only club.
Doesn’t Stearns seem to be starting out like Alderson did, just sign a bunch of question marks and see what sticks. Wondering why that’s the case, but I have read that in RPs he is hunting guys that throw over 96 as the Mets had only four pitches of that velocity thrown last year out of the bullpen as the Phillies had 1,522 such pitches thrown. So….yeah. Also, the hope is the pitching lab can help some of these hard throwers. We shall see. At least there’s a logic.
13 million,the Mets are expecting a solid ML starter.
It is very unlikely that Severino returns in his old form a 2024. I would hope he earns his salary. A player that is earning $13m a year should be excepted to put up a 1.5 fWAR. ($8.5m per fWAR). In 2023 it would have been 4.12 – 4.97 ERA and 145-172 innings. That would be SP#4. He won’t be better than Quintana. I would argue that he won’t better than Lucchesi or Peterson either. Obviously, hope trumps strategy.
This is a huge week for Stearns. Yamamoto will probably make his decision and Mets fans expect to sign him. Let’s hope he really gets along well with Senga and wants to play with him. I am however worried about the Yankees. They landed Soto and the allure of pinstripes and Cole and being positioned as closer to being a winner and going to the World Series could sway him. Also worried about the Dodgers. How much could playing with Ohtani lure him to LA.
So far, we only have Severino and we fans expect much more.