David Stearns attempts to make chicken salad with the bullpen

With Wednesday’s trade with the Brewers, the Mets’ 40-man roster stands at 38 players. Most expect the club to add a starting pitcher and an outfielder. There are certainly other areas the Mets could address, too, including designated hitter and the bullpen. Today we’ll focus on the pen. Edwin Diaz returns to nail down the ninth-inning role. Brooks Raley is back, too. After that, there’s not a ton of certainty, which is a touch alarming.

At one point, many fans thought the pen would include Adam Ottavino and David Robertson. But Ottavino declined his player option after the Mets refused to extend his contract and there have been no rumors connecting the club to Robertson, despite how successful the veteran was for the team last year.

Meanwhile, David Stearns has been very busy adding depth options for the pen. But there’s not one person there that the average fan is glad to have on the team. When you hire a guy who made his bones by making moves on the margin, you can’t be too surprised when he … makes moves on the margin.

So, let’s lump together the guys returning with a shot to make the team out of Spring Training, along with the relievers that Stearns has acquired since taking over. One of the things that the brass has tried to suggest was the reason for last year’s bullpen troubles was that the relievers were too similar. My contention is that if they really believed that, they would have tendered Trevor Gott, who was completely different from every other reliever they had. Regardless, the chart will have numbers from last year, including average fastball velocity and which pitches they threw at least 20% of the time a season ago.

Name	Options	SP Chance	Games	IP	ERA+	Avg FB	Pitches > 20%
Austin Adams	0	No	24	17.1	78	93.8	SL – 89.8%
Phil Bickford	0	No	61	67.1	88	93.9	FB – 71%, SL – 26.9%
Jose Butto	1	Yes	9	42	117	94.2	FB – 56.5%, CH – 23.1%
Reed Garrett	1	No	11	19.2	68	96.5	FB – 45.5%, SL – 37.5%
Grant Hartwig	3	No	28	35.1	88	94.8	FB – 47.1%, SL – 31.5%
Jorge Lopez	0	No	61	59	84	96.9	FB – 50.2%, CB – 21.9%
Joey Lucchesi	1	Yes	9	46.2	147	90.6	FB – 51.4%, CT – 23.1%, CH – 25.4%
Tylor Megill	2	Yes	25	126.1	90	95.2	FB – 55.75, SL – 20.6%
Yohan Ramirez	0	No	31	38.1	107	95.1	FB – 70.4%, SL – 26.1%
Sean Reid-Foley	0	No	8	7.2	125	96.1	FB – 66.5%
Drew Smith	0	No	62	56.1	102	95.3	FB – 61.3%, SL – 20.9%
Michael Tonkin	0	No	45	80	104	93.5	FB – 61.2%, SL – 38.8%
Josh Walker	2	No	13	10	54	94.7	FB – 65.3%, SL – 32.9%

The first thing that jumps out to me is that the vast majority of these pitchers are fastball-slider guys. There’s nothing wrong with that. But if you really believe that the trouble a year ago was that the relievers were too similar, it seems very odd that you would assemble a group where eight guys threw primarily fastballs and sliders. Now, not every slider is the same. Shoot, not every fastball is the same, either. Still, it doesn’t lend itself well to the idea that the Mets were going to assemble a pen made up of relievers who give clubs different looks.

My take on last year’s pen was that it was comprised of too many guys with absolutely no track record of success in the majors. The group above, especially Stearns’ imports, didn’t have much success in that department in 2023, either. Four of the six new-to-the-Mets relievers listed above had an ERA+ last year of under 90. But the majority of them have experienced success in the majors at some point, which immediately puts them ahead of the Jeff Brigham–John Curtiss types of 2023.

Gus has suggested that the thing the new pitchers bring to the table is velocity. According to Stearns, Mets’ relievers only threw four pitches last year that registered above 96 mph. Diaz alone will help that number in 2024. Lopez and Ramirez figure to throw some high-velocity fastballs if they make the club, too.

Assuming the club goes with a five-man rotation plus eight relievers – which may not be a safe assumption if the rotation includes two pitchers accustomed to throwing with more rest – the Mets will need to take six players from this group of 13 hurlers. There have been four guys signed by Stearns to a minor league deal (Kyle Crick, Carlos Guzman, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser) who may also get a shot.

Let’s take a look at this baker’s dozen group of relievers vying for a spot on the Opening Day roster:

Adams – Throws a boatload of sliders. A flyball pitcher who keeps the ball in the park. His FIP was nearly two runs better than his ERA last year.

Bickford – It’s not a good thing as a reliever to share a last name with a famous brand of charcoal for a grill – the headlines write themselves. To me, Bickford has the mentality of a guy who can blow you away; he just doesn’t have the stuff. But he was really good in September, as he had a 0.84 ERA and a 1.031 WHIP in 12 games.

Butto – My hope is that having an option available doesn’t mean he starts the year in the minors.

Garrett – Not really a fan but if Stearns wants velocity, Garrett might get a long look.

Hartwig – He exceeded my expectations with his velocity. But his success will be determined by his slider. His option status likely guarantees a start in Syracuse.

Lopez – An All-Star for the Orioles in 2022, it’s been all downhill since that midseason classic for Lopez. In his last 96 games, Lopez has a 5.42 ERA, a 1.54 WHIP and opponents have an .854 OPS against him. That’s so ugly it would fit in with the Mets’ 2023 bullpen.

Lucchesi – The question shouldn’t be if he makes the Opening Day roster, it should be if he’s a starter or a reliever.

Megill – He finished the year on a high note, posting a 2.55 ERA over his last six starts and 35.1 IP. But it’s three years now where we’ve seen flashes of brilliance combined with more ugly outings than should be acceptable. Can he cross the Rubicon in his fourth year in the majors?

Ramirez – It was a tale of two halves for Ramirez last year. In his first 16 games, he had a 1.25 ERA and in his final 15 appearances, it was an 8.10 ERA. Can he be the guy he was at the beginning of last year over an entire season? Seems like a decent gamble to make.

Reid-Foley – Not a fan of his earlier work but tough to argue with his results last year before getting injured. Intrigued by his ability to go multiple innings.

Smith – He’s probably a lock for the pen, even if my opinion says that Gott would have been a better choice. For the past three years, he’s out-pitched his FIP but the margin keeps shrinking. In that span of 143.2 IP, Smith has a 3.38 ERA and a 4.52 FIP. Last year it was a 4.15 ERA and a 4.55 FIP, in his most innings yet in the majors.

Tonkin – He’s your classic low-leverage reliever, with the bulk of his innings more important than the quality he gives you. A good team looks to upgrade from him, like the Braves did. But there’s a role for him somewhere in the majors. Too bad it’s the Mets.

Walker – His main advantage is being a lefty. Which would mean a whole lot more if he was good

*****

It’s impossible to pick a bullpen until the rotation is settled. It’s not impossible that both Adrian Houser and Luis Severino will see some time in the pen at some point in 2024. But right now, both have to be counted as rotation members. But even with those two as starters, that still leaves the club one short of a five-man rotation. And there’s the possibility that the Mets do at least a 5.5-man rotation, if not a six-man one.

If Steve Cohen put me in charge, my plan would be a 5.5-man rotation, with the first option for the sixth starter to come from a swingman in the majors, rather than a starter in the minors. That could change as the season progresses, depending upon if any of the hurlers who spent at least some time in Binghamton last year get off to a good start.

Here’s my pitching staff. These are my choices, not a prediction on what Stearns will do:
Starters – Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser, Yamamoto/Lucchesi
Relievers – Diaz, Raley, Bickford, Butto, Megill, Ramirez, Tonkin, Reid-Foley/Lucchesi

There’s almost no doubt that at least one of the Butto/Lucchesi/Megill trio will begin the year stretched out as a SP in Syracuse. Everyone else on the planet puts more weight on that than me. And yes, my pen would not include Smith. He’s just not that good.

Here are my actual predictions for what Stearns will do:
Starters – Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser, Yamamoto/Megill
Relievers – Diaz, Raley, Crick, Lopez, Ramirez, Smith, Tonkin, Megill/Lucchesi

My take is that the Mets view it as Megill>Lucchesi>Butto, which is certainly not my order of preference. Maybe Stearns brings a new set of eyes and doesn’t view Megill as a future rotation stalwart. That would be nice. Regardless, it’s difficult to look at any permutation of the above-listed relievers and think that there’s a good pen, just waiting to arrive. Good luck, Stearns.