From an article here on 10/15/23:
If it was a smart move to acquire prospects close to the majors last year at the deadline, is it a smart move to sign free agents that will block those prospects? And what about guys already in the system who took a step forward last year? Should the Mets be unconcerned about blocking them, too?
Let’s state for the record that there’s nothing easy about how to approach this offseason. Cohen and his PoBO essentially have to thread the needle, assembling a team that won’t infuriate the fanbase, one that won’t needlessly block top prospects and one that won’t hang out above the fourth level of tax penalties and not make the playoffs.
As for taxes, the initial level is set this year at $237 million. And there are three levels after that, at $20 million intervals. Finally, if the payroll hits $277 million, that’s when draft pick penalties kick in, too.
A smart businessman’s approach to get under the draft-pick-penalty threshold
It seems like the Mets put all of their high-dollar dreams in the Yoshinobu Yamamoto basket. From my office chair, that was at least a reasonable idea; it was my preferred path but no shade thrown to anyone who felt differently. But at the end of the day, the Mets didn’t get Yamamoto and it’s more than fair to ask – what now?
Some believe the team will pivot to the next best pitcher available in free agency and then go from there. But my expectation is that the team will continue the offseason plan of getting players on short-term deals. The 40-man roster is at 38 players and it won’t be a surprise, much less a huge shock, if they only add two more players in the offseason.
So, where does that leave the Mets in getting under the draft pick threshold?
Cot’s has the Mets with a projected Opening Day payroll of $267.95 million, while Spotrac has it at $255.351 million. Now, the tax is not based on Opening Day numbers. Still, these numbers show that the Mets had a chance to dive under $277 million – even while keeping Pete Alonso – if they had made different moves.
Knowing what we know now – that Yamamoto signs elsewhere – do they spend $13/$15 million on Luis Severino? Do they tender an offer to Drew Smith, given his arbitration estimate was over $4 million? That $17 million could have been the difference in keeping their first-round draft pick, without having to have lottery luck. And even though most everyone gives no consideration to Steve Cohen losing tons of money year after year – it also would have lessened his tax penalty.
How much better are the 2024 Mets with Severino and Smith?
And the follow-up question to that is: Does having Severino and Smith on your team make it worthwhile to spend noticeably more than MLB minimum to add additional players?
No one should eagerly waste a year of Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo’s prime. But it’s hard to see how spending a lot now helps the club significantly in 2024. Sure, Blake Snell and the rest are better than Tylor Megill and the rest. But is spending untold 10s of millions of dollars – likely nine-digits once you figure in luxury tax payments – at this point worth it?
Welcome to East Milwaukee.
They still need to improve the team to ensure and enhance attendance. Having seen Verlander pitch twice last season, it was well with the price of admission. Got to keep the dollars rolling in. It would likely not have been the same experience watching Butto or Lucchesi, although I hope those two pick up where they left off and step up as MLB pitchers. Winning the world series always provides a huge boost in revenue, from season tickets to very priced food and over priced garb/swag. First step is making the playoffs and there’s much work to be done before spring training.
Cohen was going to spend $27m for Yamamoto and exceed the draft pick threshold of $277m. Was Yamamoto, alone, the difference to make the playoffs? Of course the Mets would be a better team with Yamamoto but Montgomery or Snell would make the Mets a better team also, and in the same price range. Either one of them, alone, wouldn’t be the difference to make the playoffs. The Mets have too many holes to fill and that would cost money.
Why did the Stearns commit so early to Severino with his questions and risks? There were short-term contracts in the same price range without the question marks.
Smith made $1.3m last year. MLBTR estimates his arbitration salary of $2.3m. That salary is reasonable.
These actions by Stearns sends a mixed signal to the fans. Stearns still needs another starting pitcher for the rotation. He also said that they need an everyday outfielder. He also needs a setup man in the bullpen. He can’t accomplish that and get the payroll under $277m. Maybe that is the real Plan B, to get under $277m. I hope not.
When Cohen decided to be a seller at the deadline, the groundwork was set for East Milwaukee 2024-5. Scherzer and Verlander said it at the time, Cohen chose his words carefully, and Stearns’ comments since have been consistent with that message. Yes, they’d make an an exception for Ohtani or YY, but that didn’t come to fruition.
It’s not hard to see that the Nets are currently 2nd division, despite a bloated payroll and wealthy owner. They have some prospect depth but even with depth that is a crapshoot. The Mets were not selling out in their 101 win season. Not that they shouldn’t do it, but signing a couple of free agent pitchers won’t change that. Stearns really needs to hit on enough of his signings to keep Mets relevant, meaning in the Wild Card mix to the last day of the season. I’m very interested to see how he accomplishes that on what is going to likely be an East Milwaukee budget for the rest of this Fred agent season.
Scherzer is out for most, if not all if next season, so theres nothing there. The present situation remains the product of a team that has been in shambles since the Madoff affaire.
The team has constantly gotten rid of quality minor leaguers for ok to shitty trades, then mostly so-so FAs or better ones with bloated contracts. As a result the team remains perpetually out of balance. I now am a believer it is time to trade Alonso before the season begins to keep stockpiling youth. Don’t know the status of Lindors contract, but id trade him too. The team cannot be successful with the rebuilding for it plan. Just time to tear the entire big contracts down and renovate from the ground up. The Mets cannot be splurging on aging big contracts and trying to have kids learning if they are major leaguers. IMO, that is the recipe for failure. This team needs to get young and be more like Atlanta.
The biggest move the Mets made this year were not on the filed, but on the bench. A decent staff can affect the season positively – just ask the Cards and Braves of the 80’s and 90’s. It will be Mendoza and staff to rise this team to compete, and I believe they can.
For all the talk of assembling a “competitive” team this year, I don’t see that happening with the loss of Yamamoto. Why sign Snell, Montgomery, or even Giolito now unless it makes them better than the Braves/Phillies? If their goal is to spend in 2025, they might as well go with what they have now, though I still say take a flyer on Hoskins as a DH and insurance if they can’t re-sign Alonso this year or when he’s a free agent in ’25.