Mitch Garver, who would have been a great fit as a designated hitter/emergency catcher, signs a 2/$24 deal which essentially values him as a 3-WAR player over the life of his contract. Last year, in 344 PA, Garver posted a 2.1 fWAR. He’s a bit of an injury risk but with the Mariners looking at him the same way the Mets should have looked at him – as a designated hitter – he’ll likely amass more playing time than he has recently.
Meanwhile, the Mets are allegedly looking into Lucas Giolito. There’s no doubt Giolito has MLB talent. From 2019-2021, Giolito posted a 129 ERA+ over 427.2 IP, in his age 24-26 seasons. But the last two years, it’s been an 86 ERA+ over 346 IP. If you look at this optimistically, Giolito is a great bounce-back candidate, as 2024 will be just his age-29 season. But how much are you willing to pay for this chance to play baseball roulette? Originally, my feeling was that he would be worth a flyer. Then, Metsense tells me that MLBTR’s forecast for him was 2/$44, which is much more than flyer money. Here’s what MLBTR wrote about him:
There’s still plenty to like about the pitcher. He posts solid strikeout and walk marks. His only injured list stints since 2020 were minimal stays for a hamstring strain and abdominal soreness. The 2022-23 version of Giolito is a capable innings-eater not dissimilar from Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker, each of whom landed four-year deals in the $70MM range last offseason. Giolito could receive similar proposals. Like those pitchers, he won’t be burdened by a qualifying offer, as the midseason change of teams renders him ineligible.
At the same time, there’s a case for Giolito to prioritize a shorter-term deal. He won’t turn 30 until next July. If he recaptures his 2019-21 form, five or six years well above $100MM could be back in play. How he approaches free agency could be based on risk tolerance. We’re projecting him to bet on himself, locking in a $44MM guarantee over two seasons while securing an opt-out clause that could get him back to free agency next winter — a similar deal to former teammate Carlos Rodon’s contract with the Giants two years back.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/2023-24-top-50-free-agents-with-predictions.html
If Luis Severino is worth $13 million when he hasn’t been both good and healthy in five years, is it so unreasonable – assuming an opt out after the first year – that Giolito is worth $22 million when he was good as recently as 2021?
A Giolito-Severino twosome would be quite the roll of the dice. Unless you have a star-studded lineup, you need to have risk somewhere in your roster. Some might think that counting on 1,000 or more PA from Brett Baty, Starling Marte and Mark Vientos is plenty enough risk for one team. But, since the Mets missed out on the biggest fish in free agency, and seem disinclined to engage on the next level of hurlers, is it okay to go for the “boom or bust” type in Giolito? He would need to approach a 3-WAR season in 2024 to be worth the contract. And if he busts, Giolito opts in for another year at the same rate, making it a really expensive mistake.
My choice would have been Garver.
Giolito would cost a lot of money to see if he can rebuild his Brand. One year at $15 million would seem appropriate. And while Garver would have been a nice pickup I’d just as soon put Vientos as the RH DH. As long as he does not have to worry about fielding, he should be able to hit.
I think we all need to start clearing our ears out when evaluating salary. 700M$ for Ohtani. 325M$ for a guy thats never thrown an MLB baseball in competition (I mean the ball) I mean this is crazy stuff. Where is is headed is simply that players are getting paid way more than we all collectively see as reasonable. Not only will we see more $, it will be for fewer years. I think we can all play the $ per WAR, but in a negotiation room, no player is gonna be trotting that out. Their agent is only gonna be saying, fine, we got other offers, and we’re happy to move on. Its bonkers. I think we all need to get normalized to some random player in FA getting 22M per year and be a 1 WAR player with an injury history. Soto you ask? I think you get to Ohtani money right now, 600+ M$ for 10 years. he tuirned down 400 whatever and alrready put 200M more in his pocket. If he has an MVP year, then 700M not off the radar. Its bonkers, but need to get used to it.
Maybe.
Or we can look at it as if a unicorn like Ohtani gets paid at a rate above what anyone else gets, while Yamamoto (12/$325) received similar money to what Harper (13/$330) and Machado (11/$350) received when they were free agents in their mid-20s.
Maybe Giolito is worth the MLBTR contract. Or, more importantly, maybe some team values him at that rate. And if so – that’s fine. That team can sign him. Cohen and Stearns have both talked about being “opportunistic” with the right player(s) and clearly they viewed Yamamoto as that type of player. And that’s a strategy that makes perfect sense to me.
The strategy that makes me wonder is signing guys who were terrible last year to deals that are favorable to the players with no favorable long-term outcome for the team. At least with Severino, if he’s as bad as he was last year, the Mets owe him nothing in 2025. If they sign Giolito to that MLBTR-suggested deal and he’s as bad as he was last year in 2024 – the Mets have to pay him again the following year. That just seems like a really bad idea to me.
I know full well that you get what you and/or your representative negotiate. But if this particular player isn’t willing to negotiate downwards from this position, I tell him good luck with his next club. Just like sometimes the best trades are the ones you don’t make, sometimes the best free agent deals are the ones you say “no” to and let the player go to another team.
Please note, Im not advocating for any deal for any player. My only point is I think we need to stop being shocked by what some profoundly average player will ask for and get for whatever reason the mothership deems necessary. Plus at least for some teams including the Mets, there will be a mediocrity surcharge to get players in.
I would not play baseball roulette. It is too risky. Severino at $13m wasn’t a good investment. Giolito at $22 m is another risk. If they signed Giolito at $22m then the Mets will slighty exceed the $277m threshold when the draft penalty kicks in. That would be foolish. So, they have only $21m left for another setup man and a OF/DH to avoid the penalty. How can they do that? Should they do that?
A setup man is a priority because if don’t have a setup man then there wouldn’t be many saves and Diaz $21m salary would be useless.
Last year the offense needed the boost. An everyday outfielder is needed especially when Marte has questionable health.
We can definitely be competitive with a bunch of 4s and 5s if the new pitching lab is successful. I’d focus on getting more offense as I think we have a ton of competitive pitching depth. Bellinger s price must be dropping – he has no market. 5 yrs / 130 million with an opt out after 1.
Giolito signed with Boston for two years, $ 38 million. That is a lot of dough for a guy has sucked lately.
On the other hand, the Mets need to start making some moves.