For the Mets, what’s wrong with being average?

When you evaluate why some baseball teams seem to thrive, you generally look for some standout performances from their front line starters, shut down relievers, some very strong home run and RBI bats in the lineup, and some players whose defense prevents opposing runners from scoring.  Under Steve Cohen’s ownership, the Mets tried to bring success with some free agent acquisitions of aging but established star pitchers, and a cadre of discounted/used position players, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.  In 2022 this recipe brought us 101 wins and despite an early playoff departure, it seemed that going into 2023 the Mets could take the next step forward.  The season started off well but slid downhill necessitating the 2023 trade deadline sell off that brought some much needed prospects into the system, some of whom seem poised for success hopefully sooner than later and shaved some dollars from the bloated payroll.

The Mets are not a team laden with stars and never really have been, so perhaps they need to strive for a different goal – being average.  But first you need to understand what average means.  There is a numeric definition that computes an average, much like the statistics that are bantered about in this forum.  The definition we will discuss today notes that “something that is average is nether very good nor very bad, usually when you had hoped it would be better.” This connotation of average is therefore looked at in a negative light.

Let’s look at it in a different way.  If everyone simply played to their career average, it is my contention that the Mets could easily compete for the division title or at the very least, secure a Wild Card playoff spot.  It would be awesome to have a group of players batting over .300, crashing 30-40 home runs and knocking in 100 plus runs.  That does not seem to be the fate of this team.

Let’s look at who likely will be, in some format, the first six batters in the 2024 lineup – Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Francisco Alvarez and Jeff McNeil – and how if each just attained their average career seasons, the Mets would be in good shape.  The one career average that lowers each of the forthcoming statistics, are those of Alvarez, who despite crashing 25 home runs, has a lot of progress to be made at the plate.

The average career batting average of the six referenced players is .264 (Alvarez .208).  In 2023, the average batting average in MLB was .248.  The career average OBP for the six was .341 (Alvarez .248) which by baseball standards is considered solid.  As far as OPS, their career average was .803 (Alvarez .723), which places them in what is considered the upper echelon of hitters.  Lastly, the career average OPS Plus for the six computes to 119 (Alvarez 96), which is above league average and approaching what is considered very good.

On the surface this all seems so easy and logical. Of course, there is nothing easy about standing in against a 98 MPH fastball where you almost have to start swinging as the ball leaves the pitchers hand.  While this is all a rationalization, perhaps we should start thinking in terms of our hitters simply striving to have “average” seasons, versus the monster seasons we all hope they will have.  Then if we can mix in some “average” starters and “average” relief pitchers, 2024 might just turn out to be a successful year.   If you think of it in these terms, being average might just be enough.