Reading the comments on various posts here and it’s easy to see that fans are getting restless for the Mets to make some moves this offseason. And by moves, it means something more exciting than Kyle Crick or Adrian Houser. After the three previous years of Steve Cohen ownership, ones that saw the addition of players like Francisco Lindor, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, its easy to see why the fans are impatient. But those big-name additions led to losing records in two of the three seasons, so perhaps we should keep that in mind.
As the one who came up with the phrase “East Milwaukee” to describe the mostly low-budget moves that David Stearns has made so far this year, you might conclude that I’m with the pitch-fork waving masses. But that’s not correct.
Instead, it’s a tweak of the nose at those who blindly asserted that Cohen was going to spend at the level he did last offseason when almost all public pronouncements indicated otherwise. Sure, there was the Yoshinobu Yamamoto hunt. But that was the exception. The Stearns-Cohen Mets weren’t going to chase after every shiny thing. They simply weren’t going to sign Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and Josh Hader simply because they were available.
Cohen wasn’t going to sign off on another nine-digit contract just because.
It seems like most people now accept that the Mets aren’t going to sign Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell. Why anyone thought they would sign Snell when he was going to require draft pick compensation and forfeiture of international bonus money is beyond me. But then they started to latch on to giving a big contract to Lucas Giolito. Which, again, made zero sense.
They weren’t interested in bringing Giolito in last year when they could have gotten him for a waiver claim. Instead, he went to the Guardians, who also picked up Reynaldo Lopez and Matt Moore. That trio of players cost the Guardians $3.5 million. So, the Mets weren’t interested in getting a cheap look at Giolito last year for fewer than $2 million, something which you might recall me supporting. But after that, when he was – you know – terrible, now they were going to turn around and pay him an AAV of $15-$20 million or more for multiple years?
On what planet does that make sense?
My hope was for Yamamoto. Of the other players who have already signed this year, my picks were for Lopez and Mitch Garver. But the rest of the signings? Count me as glad that the Mets weren’t the ones picking up those tabs.
Some people have suggested that the Mets pay something because other teams have paid somewhat similar rates for somewhat similar players. Again, this makes zero sense to me. You assemble the players you’re interested in, assign them a value and try your best not to overpay for any particular player.
Just because someone pays Lance Lynn and his 0.5 fWAR and 44 HR allowed last year $10 million doesn’t mean any starting pitcher who can walk and chew gum at the same time should get that much money or more. The agents for all pitchers are correct in bringing up that comp. The GMs and PoBOs are right to respond by laughing.
And maybe that response means you miss out on signing Giolito or another pitcher of that ilk. And you know what? That’s a good thing! Forgive this non-PC comparison you’re about to read. But it’s like 2 a.m. and you’re out at the bar and you don’t want to go home alone. So, you talk yourself into whatever weird-looking freak is still left in the joint. The next day, you never say to yourself – wow, that was a great decision!
And here’s the thing. There’s going to be values out there in late January or February that are going to be significantly better than what we’ve seen so far. Just because Player X gets a $13 million contract with incentives in early December doesn’t mean those same rates will apply 2-3 months later.
If you ever played in a fantasy baseball league with an auction format, you’ve witnessed multiple teams spend their money early, only to watch other teams pick up players later on for much better deals. And while you might think it’s ridiculous to compare MLB to a fantasy league, just remember that the Cardinals spent $10 million on Lynn while someone’s going to get this year’s Wacha for one-third the cost.
And who better than Stearns to identify the bargains?
Mets fans need to embrace the fact that the team isn’t looking to win the offseason. Hopefully, the moves Stearns makes are ones that put the team in a better position than they finished last year. And in the final 45 games of 2023, when the majority were against teams chasing a playoff spot, the Mets went 23-22.
Maybe the Mets wind up signing a big-ticket item like Shota Imanaga. Or maybe they add players from the $5 million or fewer aisle. But we should look beyond making moves for the sake of making moves. Sure, that’s easier said than done. Last offseason was a whole lot more fun that this offseason. Let’s just hope that the 2024 regular season is better than what we endured a year ago. Because at the end of the day, winning headlines in winter is a poor substitute for winning games in June.
Awesome article! And I think the majority of Mets fan agree, but in media and pressers, the squeaky wheel will always get the grease, because it is sexy to sign players in the off-season – even if is a non-elite player to multi-millions, but even when they were named Max and Justin, we still fell — and paid for it, too.
I believe we can stay homegrown; give the managers and staff a chance, peek at our farm system and see what we have come spring and if we need to add from there, we do so.
Thanks Juan. I’m very glad that you’re becoming a regular reader and commenter here!
Great article Brian. As you rightly point out, there are no trophies for winning the off season. We’ve won more than one off season that didnt end up meaning much during the season. As I see the evolving landscape, three things come to mind.
1. Reporting says that Giolito received an offer from the Mets before deciding to go to Boston. We dont yet know what it was or what Giolito agreed upon, but we cannot dismiss, but we would be naive to eliminate that the Mets are not a desirable destination. Basically until we can prove success, there is a whole “LOL Mets” vibe that will require a serious overpay (like Scherzer and Verlander) to land solid FAs. Last years embarrassment of a team, from top to bottom, deflated the 101 win season and credibility.
2. Given that we all witnessed otherwise very productive players fall off a cliff like a bunch of lemmings, Im sure Stearns wants to see if there will be the hoped for “progression” to the mean for veteran players. If folks return to back of the card numbers, the team shall be much better. Whether or not that occurs is anyone’s guess, but the collective collapse was astonishing to watch as was inability to sync good pitching with good hitting. Sometimes the baseball gods are not particularly happy.
3. It seems clear that what is coming true is the statement about 24 being a holding and defining year just to see who will really be moving forward. Baty? Mauricio? Vientos? Gilbert? Acuna? Stearns does not want to give up on what have been top Mets prospects. Everyone knows these players (aside from Mauricio) will be given a chance to see if they are major leaguers. Once this is known, then a developing plan will be put in place. Too many question marks as of now to know who survives for the future.
4. An interesting recent article in the Athletic that I recently posted elsewhere here showed that the Mets top players Lindor, Alonso, Nimmo Alvarez etc were as competitive as any top 5 winning clubs, but where they were dramatically poor is in the rest of the players, where they were something like 25th or worse in the league in collective WAR, With these nibbling around the edges moves weve been seeing, perhaps that is also what we are seeing play out. If they can get the “filler” players up to a higher standard, the team should be much more successful.
Thanks Chris. I need to see what the Mets offered Giolito before I get too upset about that…
I dont think theres a need to be upset. Just knowing its 19.25M per year is enough to take a pass on. If the Mets offered near the same, it was already an overpay. But here we go again, well overinflated salaries. I think I might have offered 15M for the 2 years.
For a guy who’s gone from a 4.1 fWAR to 1.8 to 1.0 – my opinion is that a 2/$15 offer is a little light but not an insult.
My big issue is: How do you arrive at a deal that’s fair to both the player and the team? You’re fair to the player by giving an opt-out. But there’s got to be something to make the risk of further deterioration worthwhile for the team. I’m not rooting for this outcome but there’s a real risk that the last 14 games, where he had a 7.13 ERA with a 6.96 FIP, is just who he is from now on. He was even more gopher-ball horrific than Lynn in that stretch, as he allowed 24 HR in 72 IP.
My best offer would have been 2/$20 with an opt out.
5. Patience. This is a broken team at all levels including infrastructure. There have been many great changes in the past few years to the fan, organizational, and hardware (stadium, cameras, digital tech, pitching lab etc) infrastructure. No matter what we all want, the player performance takes the longest and is the least controllable in terms of outcome.
Maybe Stearns likes what he sees in our minor league pitching depth an is prepared to give several a legitimate shot to compete in spring training. Seemed unimaginable at the start of the off season, but now it’s not so hard to envision 3 or 4 from Vasil/Scott/Hamel/Tidwell getting a show.
I would be surprised if those guys were in contention for jobs for the Opening Day roster. Instead, I see it being Butto, Lucchesi and Megill.
Those 3 absolutely get the first shot (and I will not be surprised if Luchessi is a rotation mainstay all year), but I think we’re gonna be gifted a lot of good pitching prospect work this season.
I can see the Mets signing Imanaga to a semi-reasonable contract for a 30-year old (say, 5 years/$95 million) and Turner to a one-year deal (say for $10 million).
They definitely need a couple of free-agent relievers too.
Too early to move to Panic City.
I wouldn’t be too hopeful on Turner. Nobody is mentioning this but as I recall he kind of left the Mets on bad terms. They bugged him about some minor attitudinal or behavioral issues (I don’t remember what exactly), and dropped him in a totally disrespectful manner, which turned out to be a classic Mets blunder when he performed great with the Dodgers. So, even if all the faces have changed, why would he want to return to the same city and organization that dissed him? I’m sure he’d much prefer to continue tormenting them on some opposing team.
Turner has gone from a 4.3 fWAR to a 2.4 to a 1.2 mark in the past three years. He’s going to be in his age-39 season next year and he really can’t play the field anymore on a regular basis. I agree don’t be too hopeful on him and let’s also hope that he has a bad taste in his mouth from what you describe and he won’t consider the Mets.
You were right that Cohen wouldn’t spend the same money on the payroll but did say that they would be competitive. Competitive, to me, is a having a good chance of making the playoffs. There are to many holes on the roster to say that the Mets are going to the playoffs.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr, LF (3/42), Eduardo Rodriguez, SP (4/80) and Yuki Matsui RP (5/28) would have been a good starting point instead of putting all of the eggs in one basket, Yamamoto (12/325), and the early signing of Severino (1/13). Stearns could have spent the same money and filled three holes. The Mets would be more competitive than they are now. Maybe they could have won this off-season and also won in June.
It is my impatience that would make me a terrible GM. That being said, I agree with what you wrote. $ 18 million a year for Giolito is really a bad move. It is a lot of money for a guy who has recently gone down hill.
I do like the idea of Imanaga at a reasonable price, like Senga.
There will be bargains in the new year for players who will blink first and sign. Who knows, maybe that is Bellinger.
Next offseason, there will be some really good targets including Soto and Fried.
And there is the Alonso saga that, listening to the heart, you sign the fan favorite to a big extension, where the mind says trade him, because he is going to the wrong side of 30 and probably won’t age well.
All of it is very facinating and Stearns is a much better poker player than I am.
It is just that I am a restless fan.
What it’s coming down too is that the season is going to be very dependent on Alvarez and Baty. Are they solid ML starters? If they are the offense might be pretty good and they’ll be competitive. If not it’s another 75 win tam. Vientos? Give him his shot at DH and hope the Ks don’t do him in.
Great article and site Brian. This place and Mack are the best and ahead of the bigger sites. Better comments as well!
While 2024 doesn’t offer the full reset under the cap opportunity, could someone explain why the Mets might want to stay under $277m? I know that’s the level for draft picks getting pushed back.
It seems the real opportunity is to get through the dead money this upcoming season and maybe have room for pitching, Pete, and the kids for ‘25. That would explain the lack of mid-range signings.
Healthy, happy new year to all! LFGM!
Thanks for the kind words!
The desire to get under $277 is simply to avoid the draft pick penalty. There’s pretty much no way to get there for ’24 unless they trade Alonso and even then it’s no sure thing. A lot of money comes off after ’24 and the Marte deal will be up after ’25. But it wouldn’t shock me if they didn’t get under the draft pick penalty before Lindor’s contract is up. Unless the BNG pitchers from last year all hit…
You mention Marte, and the Mets soared with him until his injury in ‘22. 2024 might also be tied to his productivity or lack thereof.
I guess this offseason might be less about dollars and more about one year deals so next season is as clean as possible. LFGM!
So great to see new readers and commenters. Welcome to all. If the Mets were a piece or two away from a championship team, they would overpay to get there. But there are tons of needs and some pieces down on the farm that could be a year or two away from joining the big team. It’s hard to be patient but if we have 5-6 spots solidified we might have to be patient with Baty and Vientos. They need to sign Alvarez to a
6-7 year contract at team friendly dollars
like the Braves did with several players. And they need to bite the bullet
And sign Alonso. I would do that but not give a no trade clause so that a change
could be made down the line.
We will be competitive this year and Stearns has made a number of interesting acquisitions hoping that they can be useful parts, especially in the pen. One big signing would be helpful for us all.
Why do “they need to bite the bullet and extend Alonso”? Now, I’m not debating this, because I would prefer to keep him around for a few more years and see how he does, but what do Chris Davis, Mo Vaughn, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and other slugging only first baseman have in common? Look them all up, especially Howard. I would not go more than five years at a reasonable price, or, I’d let him move on.
The Met offseason has been boring and somewhat depressing. That said, I cannot say that I am disappointed that they missed out on any of the big signings at their final contract rates. As Metsense points out, the Mets are a ways from being a legit playoff contender. Throwing millions at mediocrity to fill holes isn’t going to move the needle all that much.
Reality is that 2024 is a transition season. This is what Cohen hinted at the trade deadline. Stearns has remained consistent with that message. While boring, it likely makes most sense to bargain bin buy to fill holes later in the winter, and see who emerges as contributors in the first half of 2024.
So it’s not “wait till next year” as the saying goes. It’s now” wait till the year after next”. That should not be the message the Mets front office is giving their fans. The Mets can be wildcard contenders in 2024 if they proceed to get a 2nd or 3rd type starting pitcher, Justin Turner or jd Martinez, and 1 strikeout type relief late inning pitcher. There is no excuse for the Mets with their Money not be able to land these type players being they are still available now. If sterns and Cohen are telling fans we cant be in 2024 contention then its because they prefer not to . Too many Mets fans don’t want to wait till 2025 especially because we are just 3 players away from having a very decent competitive ballclub.
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You’re right! And they are still available…
Which specific current free agents would be considered a SP2/3 and a strikeout late inning reliever, and what is the max $$$/years that the Mets should offer?
I do not believe the NY Mets have any intention of resigning Pete Alobso to a new contract, especially since he has Scott Boras as his agent. The NY Mets will keep stringing him along for this season, and either let him leave at the end of the 2024 season, or trade him in July 2024 at the trading deadline.
I would much rather see Pete Alonso traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for starting pitcher Corbin Burnes, Willie Aames and Christian Zulich or Williams, their relief pitcher.
It never ceases to amaze me how people have this completely irrational fear of Scott Boras.
If the Mets don’t re-sign Alonso, it will be because they don’t want to be paying for his decline years, not who his agent is.
Yamamoto was the only no-brainer to pursue this winter. Snell and Montgomery are both on the wrong side of 30. Other free agent pitchers essentially will give you Tylor Megill-level performance at 10x the price. Bellinger could fill an OF need, but are you getting the MVP Bellinger or the guy who hit .165 and .210 in 2 of the last 3 years?
I still say take a flyer on Hoskins, maybe 2 years, as a DH and insurance at 1B if Alonso walks next year.
As for players not wanting to play for the Mets, I’ve had that thought in the past, but disregarded it once I looked at other team options. Would FAs rather play for Cincinnati, KC, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland, Colorado, Oakland, LA Angels, Miami, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Milwaukee, Minnesota, Detroit, Arizona, or Seattle? With rare exceptions like Trea Turner and Cliff Lee, they always go for the biggest contract.
Whether it is $ 180 million or $ 220 million, the Mets look skittish on Alonso and I dont blame them. Maybe 2023 was an anomaly or maybe it wasn’t. Maybe they wait to see if he rebounds in the first half of next season.
Either way, if I had a choice of Alonso or Soto, regardless of the money, I am all in on Soto and let someone else play first.
The Mets need to see what they have with Baty, Vientos, Jett Williams, Acuna, Vasil, Gilbert and Christian Scott and then they spend big on the pieces around them.
It’s not a bad strategy, but yes, I do expect them to do more and get a left fielder not named Pham, a DH, another starter, Imanaga would be my choice. I don’t see Hader, but I do see Matt Moore and maybe Arnold’s Chapman who still has some gas from the left side to set up or go along with Diaz.