The Mets’ best month in 2023 was July, when the team went 14-9. In that month they at last got the pitching rotation they hoped to have all year, as Jose Quintana finally was activated from the IL, while Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander were hitting their stride. But June had been so horrendous and May wasn’t very good, either. Add it all up and the owner decided for the team to be sellers.
The team had a horrible start to August, getting swept in back-to-back series. The first sweep was a disaster, as they fell to the lowly Royals. The second one made more sense, as it was to an Orioles team that was playing very well. In all, the Mets went 2-10 in the first 12 games of August. But then this team, one that had underachieved most of the year and then was gutted once it was healthy and finally showing some life, did a strange thing.
This team with two starting pitchers and two relievers worth a damn, somehow went 23-22 over its final 45 games, a span that featured more games against teams chasing a playoff spot than ones out of contention. At the time, we concentrated on the unexpected stretch of good pitching from depth starters. And while that was definitely a big part of the finish, so, too, was the offense finally showing some life.
Contained in this finish was the 93-PA stretch where DJ Stewart played out of his mind and posted a 1.133 OPS. And it also included his season-concluding 3-34 span with 15 Ks. While Stewart went on his hot streak, he grabbed all of the attention. And no one should begrudge him his 15 minutes of fame. But that Stewart-mania overshadowed what was going on with several of the team’s other hitters. Here are some numbers for other hitters, the first being what they did thru 8/12 and the second what they did over the club’s final 45 games:
Francisco Lindor – .796 OPS and then an .833 OPS
Jeff McNeil – .672 OPS and then an .815 OPS
Brandon Nimmo – .785 OPS and then a .938 OPS
Mark Vientos – .526 OPS and then a .714 OPS
Daniel Vogelbach – .691 OPS and then a .922 OPS
McNeil and Nimmo did the heavy lifting but we shouldn’t ignore Lindor’s 37-point increase. And Vientos went from incredible sink hole to a player just about league average. And we also have Stewart’s stretch and Vogelbach’s slugging-heavy numbers. Our quintet listed above combined for 741 PA at a rate significantly above what they gave the club previously and it’s 875 PA if we include Stewart. And we should because even with that lousy finish, he produced a .901 OPS over those final 45 games.
Vogelbach seems unlikely to be back and Stewart seems nearly as unlikely to match what he did. But what about the other four? How likely are they to contribute something closer to what they did in the final 45 games, as opposed to what they did in the first 117?
Lindor added the singles at the end of the year that were missing at the beginning. The other three brought power that was lacking earlier. McNeil and Nimmo have teased us with stretches of power previously. But McNeil has never done it over a full season. Nimmo has had a couple of seasons with a .200 ISO but he had a .248 ISO, with 9 HR and a .358 BABIP. Can he bring power and have hits fall in at that rate over a full season?
Perhaps nothing is more of a wild card than Vientos and his home runs.
He’s been a power source in the minors but until the end of the season, it hadn’t really showed in the majors. Yet Vientos cracked 7 HR in his final 100 PA and 94 ABs. Imagine if somehow Vientos got 600 PA while hitting homers at this rate. It would be like having our very own Kyle Schwarber on a minimum wage contract.
Few expect the depth starters to mimic what they gave the club in the final 45 games of the season. But what if they did? And the same thing applies to our four hitters. Probably more people would think our quartet could have a repeat performance, even if they still didn’t give it a very high chance of happening. Again – what if they did?
For what it’s worth, 45 games are about 28% of the season. That’s not a very large amount. At the same time, it’s not a tiny sample, either. It would be great if we could say with any degree of certainty about its significance to forecast future performance. Unfortunately, we can’t.
But, at the very least, we have to consider it a possibility that Lindor can hit for both power and average over a full year. A possibility that McNeil can pull the ball for extra-base hits, rather than grounding weakly to the right side again and again. A possibility that Nimmo can hit home runs while maintaining a .300 AVG. A possibility that Vientos’ power can translate to the majors.
Get out your rose-colored glasses and imagine 162 games like the previous 45 for these four players. That would be a fun offense to watch. And it would be even better if Pete Alonso is here all year, Francisco Alvarez takes a step forward and Starling Marte isn’t toast. Shoot, as long as we’re dreaming, Brett Baty can justify his top prospect status, too.
It’s easy to see the lack of impact additions to the club this offseason and conclude that another sub-.500 season is waiting to happen. And, indeed, that’s a possibility. But so too is the possibility that the offense clicks in a way that it didn’t for most of 2023 but did, for the most part, down the stretch of last season.
It’s very easy to be dismissive of anything remotely like this happening in 2024. Shoot, it’s the Mets after all and that type of good fortune doesn’t live in Queens. But what if it did?
Purely a gut feeling, but this could be a scrappy and enjoyable 85–89-win team. Pete will have a monster year as he drives for a big contract. Lindor, Nimmo, and McNeil all play to career norms. Alvarez improves, Vientos finds his footing, Marte stays healthy.
On the mound, Senga’s legend grows. Jose Butto becomes the surprise revelation. Diaz resumes his dominance, and the rest of the pen is OK.
Meanwhile on the farm, some positive developments among a few of the top prospects give hope for a brighter future in Queens.
Granted that’s a lot that has to go right, but none if it is too far-fetched. It’s a better plan than relying on expensive contracts to older and/or middling players.
Also let’s not overlook the work the mishmash of pitchers did down the stretch without Verlander or Scherzer. Clearly potential for another article. Alvarez needs to improve and Marte be healthy and one through six are a pretty good start. Then if Vientos can smash at DH I’d say we have a good offensive group. Let’s hope Butto, Lucchesi and Megill start like their end of the season games, and not the good start bad start alternating appearances for most of the year. Hope springs eternal for this team.
It was. The hitting, How many games did they score four or fewer runs?
MLB average was 4.62 runs per game. In the final 45 games, the Mets averaged 4.82 runs per game. In their first 117 contests, the Mets averaged 4.27 rpg. That’s a significant increase.
If the new year is about anything, it’s hope. We have good players. A good core. The margins have been improved (hopefully), and with a couple of additions you just never know. Ya gotta believe.
If the Mets can maintain their hitting based their last 45 games then they should expect a 83 win season in 2024. Alonso, Lindor , Nimmo and McNeil should be counted for that production. Even Vientos at DH and Alvarez with their power numbers and average OPS could be counted on to maintain their numbers. Stewart is a good power bench piece and and shouldn’t be a starting outfielder. Vogelbach isn’t on the team. In the 45 games, both a them had .900+ OPS. Where are they going to get that production ? Even a healthy Marte can’t be expected to play like he did before. Not at 35 and not a level of . 900 OPS. Marte, at this stage of his career, should be looked at as a fourth outfielder. Baty (65 OPS+) should improve but a .900 OPS would be an unreasonable expectation. Nobody expects Taylor, their new player, to have a .900 OPS either. This off-season, Stearns didn’t supplement the offense. In fact, the offense regressed.
I’m looking forward of the sequel article “The Mets’ overlooked pitching performance in the final 45 games of 2023”. Brian, your hard work on this article make it crystal clear that the Mets aren’t going to be competitive in 2024 . Their actions speak louder than their words.
My opinion is that no one has any idea of what the Mets will do in 2024, regardless if they make any significant additions to the roster than what they have now. Unless you say the Mets are going to win 95+ games, you can at least make somewhat of a case to support your POV, whether that’s 93 Wins or 63 Wins.
Since this piece talked about the offense, let’s just talk about that. With Alonso, Lindor, McNeil and Nimmo, you have 3 All-Stars either in their prime or not far removed, along with Nimmo, who should have made the AS team twice. If those 4 players produce at 85% of their capability, that’s a very strong core. And the thing is that the rest of last year’s offense was so bad that just getting them to average would represent a sizable move forward. It’s always optimistic to predict both health and improvement. But you don’t have to squint at all to see the 2024 offense being better than what the club produced last year.
I’m not doing cartwheels about the team’s prospects next year. I’m not placing a wager on them to make the playoffs, much less the World Series. My opinion is that what’s on the roster right now does not equal a late-70s bad type of team.
Metsense, the actions are not yet over. We are nowhere near the start of the season. I dont believe we are looking at the last roster moves.
But I really have deep concerns about landing big fish FA at a time when there is not an every day 3B, and every day DH, an MLB-level 4 deep set of OF, or a competent 6 deep rotation. Everyone says “Play the kids”, but weve seen already that comes with real growing pains.
I think we will see moves in FA, then a hope for the total offensive shut down from last year to progress to the mean, and fingers crossed some prospects more than Alvarez can make the cut.
Career-average years from the veterans in the lineup, league-average play from the kids at 3B and DH, a bounce-back year from Severino, a healthy 30+ starts from Quintana, 4.00 ERA from the SP4 & 5 spots, and Diaz saves adding 4-5 close wins over last year with perhaps some trade deadline additions like 2015 makes a Wild Card team, perhaps a NL East crown. And injuries or sub-par performances could crimp the Braves or Phillies.
Much would have to fall into place, but lightning in a bottle happens to one team every few years. Recall the 107-win Giants with a bunch of reclamation projects 2 seasons ago. I don’t expect it, yet it would be fun to see.