According to Baseball-Reference, 170 free agents have signed here in the 2023-24 offseason. It feels like most of them have been low-level moves. No doubt that’s driven by the fact that only half of the top 10 free agents on FanGraphs’ top 50 list have signed a deal so far. And it’s not just the top half of the list, as 30 of the 50 are still available.
By contrast nine of the top 10 free agents on the previous season’s FanGraphs list had inked a deal by Jan. 3, 2023. And the lone holdout comes with an asterisk, as Carlos Correa had agreed in principle with two different clubs but concerns about his long-term health caused both teams to back out. Correa ended up re-signing with the Twins on Jan. 11 last year.
You have to go down to No. 24 on the list to find the second free agent who hadn’t signed by Jan. 3 – Justin Turner, who is also unsigned this year, too. Turner inked his deal on Jan. 6. Overall, only 11 of those top 50 were still unsigned this time a year ago.
Conventional wisdom is that clubs were waiting to see where the two big fish were going to sign before making a bunch of other deals. But Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed on Dec. 27 and there have been only eight free agents signed from 12/28-1/3. In that same time period a year ago, 16 free agents inked deals.
It’s just been a slow-moving market.
With so many prominent free agents still on the board, Mets fans retain hope that the club will make multiple impact signings. It’s good to have hope, as sometimes that’s all you have. Will the Mets make three or more big moves before the start of Spring Training? That’s certainly a possibility. Most of us hope they add at least one SP and an OF. Many are hoping for more moves than that.
Not to be a downer or anything like that but my caution to everyone is that the Mets may just make two low-cost moves before the start of Spring Training. That’s not a prediction. Rather, it’s just pointing out that as a possibility, too.
Editor’s Note – This was written before the Harrison Bader signing.
Bader was ranked 23rd on the FG list
David should have a quick hitter on the Bader move shortly.
Today is January 6th. The clock is ticking on Imanaga. He has five days to sign a deal. If we get to Monday, it’s only three. What do the Mets do? I think they make him an offer and I bet it won’t be the biggest. Five years, $ 90 million. Maybe the draw of New York and pitching with Senga will lure him in.
I am also reading the rumors about Cease. It appears that the White Sox are asking for three prospects. I wonder if they would accept McNeil, Parada and a second prospect.
Maybe we will see some other moves this week. I would really like to see them sign Turner. And I would like to see them sign some decent relievers. If they get Imanaga, Cease, Turner and two or three decent relievers I would be very happy.
Imanaga could be a value signing around $ 100 million. He is a crafty veteran and a left hander. The Dodgers may regret the Yamamoto contract on top of Ohtani’s. He may turn out great or he could be a Dice K.
I don’t pretend to know what the Mets are going to do.
But I’m preparing myself for the Severino deal being the biggest dollar outlay for the club this season. Would it shock me if they signed Imanaga or traded for Cease? No, it wouldn’t shock me. But I wouldn’t put the odds very high on that type of move – maybe 30%?
Regardless, I’m curious if there will be a tipping point where the majority of fans give up on expecting a big move this offseason. If Montgomery and Imanaga sign elsewhere and Cease and other trade targets don’t end up in Queens – will people still expect them to sign Snell and Bellinger?