Harrison Bader’s one-year deal adds $10.5 million to both the Opening Day payroll and – more importantly – to the 40-man Competitive Balance Tax payroll. It’s difficult to establish what the latter sits at now, with the unknown of arbitration salaries. Cot’s estimates it to be $306.4 million, while Spotrac has it at $293.2 million. Regardless of which one is right, it’s likely to go up, as the club still has one spot open on the 40-man roster.
Earlier this offseason, my opinion was that the worst thing the Mets could do was to exceed the final tax threshold of $297 million without assembling a team that had a solid shot to make the playoffs. Yet, it seems to me that’s exactly what they did. Here are the moves made so far this offseason adding players above the minimum wage:
RHP Luis Severino, 1 year/$13 million
OF Bader, 1 year/$10.5 million
RHP Adrian Houser, 1 year/$5 million (arb estimate)
INF Joey Wendle, 1 year/$2 million
RHP Jorge López, 1 year/$2 million
OF Tyrone Taylor, 1 year/$1.735 million (arb estimate)
RHP Michael Tonkin, 1 year/$1 million
RHP Austin Adams, 1 year/$800K
There’s something to like about all of these players. But, gun to your head, do you believe that all of these additions combined move the needle very much? That’s a little over $36 million spent on this group. If each of these players was replaced with a guy making minimum wage, they not only would be under the highest tax threshold, they’d have a shot being under the draft pick penalty of $277 million, too.
Unlike the option relievers hoarded by Billy Eppler last year, all of these guys have had some level of success in the majors. However unlikely it may be to reach these heights again, Severino has a 5.6 fWAR season to his credit, Bader a 4.1 mark and Wendle a 3.9 fWAR. Unfortunately, none of those marks happened last year, when they combined for (-0.4) fWAR.
My main interest is the Mets having a good team. At the same time, I’m a little more considerate of Steve Cohen’s fortune than most everyone else. The idea of paying a $101 million luxury tax bill for a team that goes 75-87 offends me and makes me feel bad for Cohen. But that happened with a playoff-caliber team that got hit by injuries and under-performance.
If the 2024 Mets win 90 games and make the playoffs, you’ll hear my cheers along with everyone else’s. But if this team finishes under .500 again, it’ll be because the talent level wasn’t there. And it will be the third time in four years the team will have a losing record under Cohen.
And there will be no sympathy from me for whatever luxury tax bill arrives.
On the plus side, think of how much money comes off the books for next year!
One possibility is that the Mets continue a low-budget strategy in 2025. If they do that, combined with the money coming off the books following the 2024 season, they could not only get under the draft-pick-penalty threshold but under all luxury tax thresholds. The initial tax threshold that year will be $241 million. Currently, Cot’s has the CBT payroll for the Mets in ’25 as $129.85 million.
Stearns spent $36m, is in danger or has exceed the threshold and didn’t assemble are playoff and may not be a .500 team. All these one year contract are a telling sign that 2025 is Stearns goal. This year, all Cohen’s money didn’t land Ohtani or Yamamoto. They signed for a lot of money and…..a chance win. What would change a dynamics for next seasons free agent market? Even if they win in 2024 because every one-year contract bears fruit they would be in the same position. They are only one-year contracts so they have to sign them also to remain at the status quo of winning.
The Mets have a decent minor league players. Most of them will get to the Major Leagues in 2025. Hopefully, even one or two might be a star. Hopefully, most of them will be average or better. In 2023, Baty, Vientos, Mauricio and Alvarez did not reach average. Generally, young players need more time in the Major Leagues to establish themselves. It is risky to think that the 2025 Mets will have a plethora of stars from the minor leagues immediately
I would have liked Stearns to be spending the money on established players that had recent success in the major leagues. Even if ithey were second tier free agents.
Signing Bader for $10.5 MM and offering Yamamoto $325 MM says Cohen does not care about the CBT. He just wants to win a WS — like the fan he is, albeit a very wealthy one. Take him at his word that 2024 is a transitional year, but 2025 is a win-now/soon year. Don’t be surprised if he signs Soto and a few of the many good SPs available in 2025.
Not sure why anyone would think that Juan Soto wouldn’t resign with the Yankees. They’ve had a few rough years but generally remain near the top of their division and generally make the playoffs. That’s what players are looking for. They are also not afraid to spend money. Yankees are probably still the 3rd best team in their division, but the O’s and Rays will need all of their low budget rosters to repeat their successes to maintain their standings as 1 and 2. Easier said than done.
I really do not believe Cohen and Company are worried about the luxury tax and will spend what they need to be competitive in 2024. That wont happen without another front line starter. They can sign all the depth pieces they want, which of course makes us better prepared to cover for inevitable injuries, and the crop of this years no names is much stronger than the crap they brought up last year, with few exceptions.
Hate to get stuck with a bad free agent contract but it’s still a better way to go than trading prospects for a marginal pitcher who happened to have a good 2023. What is bothersome is that there have been a number of inexpensive signings of marginal to good players who played well last year that we did not go after that could have helped that other teams picked up. Hoping Adrian Houser can really pitch because he’s the closest thing to a starter that we got.
Can you imagine our depression if we had held on to Scherzer at $43 million and then he was injured – again. Or even worse, signed Jake to $180 million only to see him fall apart – again. Or stayed with a Verlander and his $43 million who will likely start showing his age this year.
Still have not seen the Stearns magic we have all bought into.
I agree with you on Soto. Would love to have him but just don’t see it happening.
However, I’m curious how you would describe “the Stearns magic” other than what we’ve seen this offseason? For the most part, he made low-budget moves that worked out tremendously. The two exceptions being the Yelich trade and the Cain signing. But both of those moves happened after he had been with the club for several years.
I can see Soto coming to the Mets next year. Cohen is not afraid to outbid the competition for the right player, especially is he’s young. And Soto and Boros will be looking for the most money.
Steve, I can too. Not only do the Mets have the better farm/future, but they also will offer a king’s ransom. Further, I think the lineup seems to be quite solid. There is a chance for Baty and Vientos (Stearns was very clear that kids need multiple opportunities and should not be closed off), and if you squint you can see six above average positions players (second team all-stars in Marte (if he is really healthy), Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil, and Alvarez.
Now onto finalizing the pitching staff.
It’s difficult to make these predictions because we are looking at the additions (no one to get excited about) and not necessarily the makeup of the team. The front office has to be counting on things getting better with the existing roster. Alvarez will have a full season. Alonso won’t hit low .200’s in his walk year. Starling Marte healthy is a substantial upgrade over DJ Stewart. Kodai Senga won’t be a newcomer to the league. But most importantly, they’ll have Edwin Diaz closing games.
This team is obviously not going to compete with the Braves in 2024, but they could sneak in to Wild Card contention with better performances from those already mentioned and Jeff McNeil/Brett Baty/Mark Vientos. (Also, addition by subtraction: no Vogelbach.)