One day after writing about preparations for Luis Severino’s 1/$13 to be the largest move of the offseason for the Mets, they ink Sean Manaea to a 2/$28 deal with an opt out after the first season. My first thought after hearing the move was to recall he didn’t look good when the Mets first faced him last year. And, indeed, he gave up 5 ER in 3.2 IP when he started against the Mets in April.
It was a terrible start to the year for Manaea, who was busted to the bullpen in mid-May and remained there until early September. After his start on May 10, Manaea had a 7.96 ERA, which certainly justified a demotion. But Manaea got right in the pen, posting a 3.86 ERA with a 3.12 FIP in 67.2 innings as a reliever. It was enough to bring him back to the rotation, where in four starts to close the season, Manaea had a 2.25 ERA with a 3.12 FIP.
My next thought was how Manaea’s deal was similar to someone else linked to the Mets earlier this offseason. Lucas Giolito signed a 2/$38.5 million deal with the Red Sox, also with an opt out after the first year. Giolito had the opposite type of season from Manaea, where he was good early in 2023 before being awful down the stretch.
The two pitchers are similar in that they were good earlier in their careers but have been disappointments the past couple of years. Gioltio, who will be in his age-29 season in 2024 and is three years younger than Manaea, had both a longer and higher peak. But the lefty Manaea has never had a season as bad as Giolito’s ’23 campaign, where he posted a 5.27 FIP. Overall, Manaea had a 3.90 FIP last year, although in 66.2 fewer innings, which explains how they both ended up within 0.1 of each other in fWAR, with Manaea inching ahead.
It seems reasonable to prefer either deal. It’s no fun to look at things thru a worst-case scenario but it’s tough to ignore that if both players are bad, Manaea’s deal will hurt less. And if they both turn in strong seasons in ’24, they both opt out. But perhaps these are the types of deals that sub-.500 teams have to make.
Which deal is better?
- Sean Manaea 2/$28 with opt out (85%, 23 Votes)
- Lucas Gioltio 2/$38.5 with opt out (15%, 4 Votes)
Total Voters: 27
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Neither. Manaea is a 4.44 ERA career pitcher. Megill is 4.70. Why not just pitch Megill as SP5 and save $26 million?
A few reasons: Manaea eats more innings. Manaea was once a good pitcher.
If Manaea bounces back, he has trade value at the deadline. Megill could pitch well and still not net a good return in trade.
Looking at Manaea’s stats I was initially unhappy about the signing.
But the following totally changed my feelings about it. I think this could be a brilliant move.
“However, as MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted in a recent profile of Manaea, the lefty added a sweeper to his repertoire at the end of May and found massive success with it. Hitters struggled to a .140/.161/.163 slash line against the pitch, swinging and missing at it 35.1% of the times it was thrown.
“After adding the sweeper, Manaea quickly found more success with the Giants. He pitched to a solid 3.78 ERA with a fantastic 3.26 FIP in his final 81 frames of the season, and excelled in a late-season return to the rotation with a 2.25 ERA and 3.21 FIP in four September starts.”
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mets-in-agreement-on-two-year-deal-with-sean-manaea.html
I expected that more people would prefer the Manaea deal. But I’m shocked that he’s pitching a shutout.
Put me down for Manaea…as less bad…better trend line in 2923. lower financial risk, cooler hair.
Manaea because he is trending upward and Giolito is trending downward.
Giolito over Severino because of his dismal 2023 season.
Paulc ^ Joey Lucchesi has a carreer ERA of 4.07 and a 2023 ERA of 2.89. If they wanted money then Stearns should have not signed Severino for $13m.
Only favor the Manaea deal because it’s a cheaper contract. We proceed on a wing and a prayer hoping any number of new pitchers step up and contribute in the absence of a real star starter.
After thinking about it some, I voted for Giolito. Manaea showed well, and that’s great, but he did it as a reliever mostly facing each hitter one time: that’s a lot easier. Then, we have always said September stats don’t count. So, why are we accepting them so easily now? Do we just need to? Giolito last year was doing well, until he had to deal with his wife’s rejection. Folks, I’ve never been divorced but know others that have, and you would swear they aren’t the same person you knew. Giolito: 1st Half: 3.45 ERA. 2nd Half: 7.13. Ouch.
Back to Manaea. On July 22, at Washington, he had a longer relief outing: 5.2 inns; 4 ER. That was on three days rest after 2.1 inns and 2 ER at Cincy. In all, I would expect Manaea to have a higher ERA than Megill, but the southpaw approach is something the rotation needed.